PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Valspar Championship

For the fourth and final tournament of the Florida swing, the PGA TOUR will be hosting the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course (par 71, 7,340 yards, POA greens) at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor. Taylor Moore is the defending champion of this event, winning last year at -10, and this will be a full field of 156 players, with a normal top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for The Valspar Championship

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Sam Burns ($10,900)

Burns has been simply incredible at the Copperhead Course, producing four top-12 finishes in only five appearances at the tricky par 71, including back-to-back wins from 2021-22. The 27-year-old secured his first win at the Copperhead Course by three strokes in 2021, which is the largest margin of victory the Valspar has seen since 2006. Unsurprisingly, Burns leads this week’s field in career Strokes Gained at the Copperhead Course by a decent margin.

The LSU product has already racked up four top-10 finishes in only seven starts this season, and he ranks sixth in par-5 performance, which is sensational news with the Copperhead Course up next, where four of the past five winners have finished the tournament top-five in par five efficiency. Burns ranks third in our PGA Models in terms of Perfect% and is the best golfer to build around for the Valspar.

Doug Ghim ($8,400)

Ghim finished T27th at last year’s Valspar in just his second attempt at the event and he should produce an even higher finish this time around. Ghim is currently playing the best golf of his career, carding five straight finishes of T16 or better while collectively gaining strokes from tee to green, off the tee, and on approach at all these events. Ghim’s tee-to-green game has been simply incredible, and when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds using the Rabbit Hole tool at BetSpertsGolf.com, the 27-year-old ranks fifth in ball striking. Additionally, Ghim ranks first in par-5 efficiency during this time, setting him up perfectly for the Copperhead Course.

Ghim has moved himself up 99 spots in the world golf rankings to a career-best No.118 with these five straight top-20 finishes and is without question one of the best values available for the Valspar at this affordable salary.

In our PGA models, Ghim carries the 11th highest Perfect%, but he is only the 16th most expensive option on DraftKings.

Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Lucas Glover ($7,300)

After missing the cut at THE PLAYERS by only one stroke, Glover should rebound with a quality finish at the Valspar. The veteran still gained strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass, and before this, Glover had only missed one cut in his previous 12 starts, which is a run that includes five top-30 finishes. Ranking 10th in SG: Approach, Glover has been one of the best ball strikers on the PGA TOUR this season, and he has been successful at the Copperhead Course, making 13-of-18 cuts for his career. Notably, Glover has advanced to the weekend at each of the last five Valspar Championships, with two of these finishes being top-20 results.

The former major champion is a -190 favorite to make the cut this week on the DraftKings Sportsbook and is simply underpriced for his safety. Despite being only the 29th most expensive golfer on DraftKings, Glover presents the 21st highest Perfect% in our PGA models.

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Victor Perez ($6,900)

Perez is undoubtedly one of the best sub-$7,000 targets on the board this week – he carries the 30th highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 36th most expensive golfer on DraftKings. Perez has made three straight cuts, with the final two finishes of this streak being a T16 at the Cognizant Classic and a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open. During that latter finish, the professional out of France closed out the week with a final round 7-under 65 at the Grand Reserve Country Club, which is Perez’s career low on the PGA TOUR.

The 27-year-old ranks 10th in SG: Approach this season, and he has never missed a cut in five career starts in Florida, including a T9 at THE PLAYERS in 2021 and a solid T45 in his Valspar debut a year ago.