GOLF

PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Valero Texas Open

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Apr 3, 2024

For the final event before our first major of the season in the Masters, we remain in Lonestar state for the second straight week for the Valero Texas Open. Since 2010, this event has been played at TPC San Antonio (par 72, 7,438 yards, POA greens), excluding 2020, when the Valero was canceled due to the pandemic. Corey Conners is the defending champion of this tournament, winning at -15 last season, and will be seeking his third Valero Texas Open title this week. This is a full field of 156 golfers, and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for The Valero Texas Open

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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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Ludvig Aberg ($10,500)

Ignore that Aberg missed the cut in his Valero debut last season and roster the Swede with full confidence this week. Aberg was the 1,207th-ranked golfer in the world when he competed at TPC San Antonio a year ago and now returns to the venue as the eighth-ranked player in the world. In that year span, Aberg has won once on both the European Tour and PGA TOUR, which are just two of his nine top-10 finishes in 16 starts during this timeframe.

With four of the past five winners at TPC San Antonio finishing the event top-12 in SG: Off-the-Tee, being an elite driver is an advantage at this track, and Aberg certainly fits that mold, ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds using the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole tool.

TPC San Antonio also features POA greens, and no golfer in this field has gained more total strokes at courses that are home this type of putting surface than Aberg this season. The 24-year-old carries the second-best odds to win the Valero this weekend and second highest Perfect% in our PGA models but is the third most expensive golfer on DraftKings.

Brian Harman ($8,600)

Harman has finished top-25 in three of his six appearances at TPC San Antonio and should bounce back this week after missing the cut at the Valspar. This mishap really wasn’t a surprise, considering Harman has struggled mightily at the Copperhead Course throughout his career, missing 7-of-10 cuts on the Florida track. Furthermore, before the Valspar, Harman nearly won THE PLAYERS, finishing runner-up to champion Scottie Scheffler by only one shot, which was Harman’s fourth top-20 of the season and 17th consecutive made cut.

The reigning champion golfer of the year currently sits at a career-best No.8 in the world golf rankings and ranks fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green when we compare this field’s recent forms in our PGA models. Harman also notoriously thrives at TPC courses, ranking second in total strokes gained when we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds at TPC courses via the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole tool.

The 37-year-old carries the seventh-highest Perfect% in our PGA models but is only the 13th most expensive option on DraftKings this week, showing you Harman is one of the best values available for the Valero.

In our PGA models, Ghim carries the 11th highest Perfect%, but he is only the 16th most expensive option on DraftKings.

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Russell Henley ($8,200)

Henley’s price has dropped $400 since his missed cut at THE PLAYERS, and he is a great bargain at this salary. Prior to missing the weekend at TPC Sawgrass, Henley had only missed two cuts in his previous 22 starts. Furthermore, the veteran finished T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his last start before THE PLAYERS, which is one of his seven top-15 finishes in his past 12 starts. Another reason to expect a bounce back performance from Henley this week is savviness for competing in Texas. While he lacks experience at TPC San Antonio, with a 1-for-2 record in terms of made cuts, Henley ranks sixth in total strokes gained when comparing this field’s last 50 rounds in the Lonestar State, via the Rabbit Hole.

Specifically, Henley has produced six top-10 finishes in 10 starts at the Houston Open, including a three-shot victory in 2017. This tournament always takes place at similar venues to TPC San Antonio and Henley should have a career-best finish at the par 72 this weekend. While the veteran sports the 12^th-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models, Henley is only the 16^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings.

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Ryo Hisatune ($6,600)

Despite being the 46^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, Hisatune carries the 19^th-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models, making him a standout value at this cheap salary. Hisatune is in the midst of a promising season, making 6-of-9 cuts, with five of these finishes being results of T33 or better. This will be his first start at TPC San Antonio, but he has the tools to thrive at this par 72. Four of the past five champions at TPC San Antonio have finished the tournament top-five in SG: Approach, and Hisatune has gained strokes on approach at five straight events coming into this week.

The 21-year-old also ranks ninth in total strokes gained when we analyze this field’s records at venues that present POA greens this season, via the Rabbit Hole. Histaune is arguably the best sub-$ $7,000 value on the slate, and we’re projecting him to come with essentially no ownership in GPPs.