PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at The Sentry

The PGA TOUR returns this week with the Sentry. Since 1999, the Plantation Course (par 73, 7,596 yards, Bermuda greens) of the Kapalua Resort in Lahaina, Hawaii has hosted this event. This is a field of 59 golfers, and there will be no cut this week.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% — and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for The Sentry

Ludvig Aberg ($8,700 DraftKings)

Aberg was playing incredible golf to close out 2023 and is one of the best values on the board at this sub-$9,000 salary. The Swedish professional is coming off his first-ever PGA TOUR win at the RSM Classic, which he won by four shots.

During this triumph, Aberg closed the event with back-to-back 9-under 61s, and he led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Strokes Gained: Putting. This victory didn’t come as a surprise either, as Aberg had finished inside the top 14 at seven straight tournaments leading up to his win at the RSM Classic, including a victory at the European Masters and a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms Championship. The 24-year-old has vaulted up 171 spots in the world golf rankings since his win at the European Masters to a career-high No.29 in the world.

While this will be his debut at the Plantation Course, very few are playing better golf than Aberg right now, and his game is a perfect match for the lengthy par 73, which is the third-longest course used on the PGA TOUR.

Each of the past two winners at the Plantation Course have finished the tournament top-five in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and driving distance, which bodes extremely well for Aberg, who led the PGA TOUR in total driving this past season and ranked top-five in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and driving distance.

In our PGA Models, Aberg ranks third in this field in Perfect%.

Sungjae Im ($8,100 DraftKings)

Im has been excellent at the Plantation Course, finishing no worse than T13 in three starts at the venue, most notably with a T5 in 2021. Via FantasyLabs’ PGA models, the 25-year-old ranks fifth in career strokes gained at the Plantation Course.

Im now returns to Kapalua in convincing form, with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts. His driver has been awesome, ranking 10^th in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA models.

Furthermore, Im has gained strokes with his putter in 10 of his last 15 starts, and his top putting splits come on Bermuda grass, which is terrific news with the Plantation Course up next, where each of the last three Sentry champions has led their field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Im’s elite combination of a strong driver and putter is the perfect recipe for success at the Plantation Course, and he is a no-brainer at this low salary. While it came for a weaker field at the Zozo Championship, Im was priced up to $10,200 on DraftKings for his last start.

He has the 10th best Perfect% in our simulations, but Im is priced as the No. 20 golfer on DraftKings.

Russell Henley ($7,700 DraftKings)

Henley is always a sharp target on Bermuda grass and is a tremendous value at this affordable salary. Three of his four PGA TOUR wins have come at venues that present Bermuda greens, and Henley has flashed great upside at the Plantation Course in the past, carding a T3 finish in 2015. Additionally, the 34-year-old has carded a top-20 finish during each of his last six starts at tracks with Bermuda putting surfaces.

On top of his expertise on Bermuda grass, Henley’s overall form is outstanding. In his last five starts, Henley hasn’t finished outside the top 13, including a runner-up at the Wyndham and a T6 at the St. Jude Championship. The veteran ranks in the top 12 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green long-term form and Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 24^th most expensive player on DraftKings for the Sentry.

For some more evidence to show you how underpriced Henley is, his +3500 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook to win this weekend are the 15th-best in this field.