GOLF

PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at THE PLAYERS Championship

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Mar 13, 2024

For the season’s biggest purse at a whopping $25 million, we head to TPC Sawgrass (par 72, 7,275 yards, poa trivialis greens) in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida for THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler won this event last season by five strokes and returns to TPC Sawgrass after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational by five shots last week. This is a field of 144 golfers, and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship

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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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Justin Thomas ($10,600)

Thomas carries the fifth-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models and should contend for his second win at TPC Sawgrass this week. In eight appearances at the par 72, the 30-year-old has never missed a cut and has produced three top-12 finishes, including a win in 2021.

As for his current form, Thomas just finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week while gaining strokes in every major category at Bay Hill. The Alabama product has now finished T12th or better in seven of his past eight starts, and he ranks 15th in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Around-the-Green when we compare this field’s last 20 rounds.

Being in pristine form as both a ball striker and a short game player is exactly how you succeed at TPC Sawgrass – Scheffler finished fourth in SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green during his PLAYERS victory last season – and Thomas also thrives on POA, ranking fourth in Total Strokes Gained when we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds at courses that are home to this green type (you can filter by green type on the Rabbit Hole).

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Byeong Hun An ($8,100)

An has finished T35th or better in three of his past four visits to TPC Sawgrass and is in sensational form right now. The 32-year-old just finished T8th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, which marked his third straight top-25 finish and his 13th consecutive made cut.

An gained strokes in every major category at Bay Hill this past week and ranks 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 33rd in par 5 performance this season. Capitalizing on the par 5 is critical at TPC Sawgrass – three of the past five winners here have finished the event top three in par-5 efficiency – and a fourth straight top-25 finish is certainly on the table for An this weekend.

The veteran sports the 20th highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 26th most expensive player on DraftKings for the PLAYERS.

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Tom Hoge ($7,800)

It’s hard to argue against Hoge at this affordable salary. The 34-year-old finished T3 at last year’s PLAYERS Championship and has finished T33 or better at each of the last four editions of this event. Now, Hoge returns to TPC Sawgrass playing some of the best golf of his career as the maker of seven straight cuts, with five of these finishes being top-20 results. The main reason for Hoge’s success this season has been his ball striking, with him leading the entire PGA TOUR in SG: Approach. Furthermore, Hoge ranks second in par-5 performance, putting him in the perfect position to produce another high finish at TPC Sawgrass.

At this Dye design, two of the past three victors have finished the tournament top five in both SG: Approach and par-5 efficiency. Hoge might be a popular option this week, but he is simply underpriced and is good chalk to embrace. Despite being the 31^st most-expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, Hoge presents the 26^th highest Perfect% in our PGA Models.

Ryan Fox ($6,200)

Fox is coming off a T35 at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago, and he was spectacular during his final round at PGA National, carding a 6-under 65, which is a new career low for Fox on the PGA TOUR. He ranked 12th in SG: Approach during this finish and will now look to carry this momentum over to TPC Sawgrass, where Fox finished T27th in his first attempt at the volatile course last season.

While a limited sample of only three starts, Fox has never missed a cut and has never finished worse than T35 at a Florida venue. Overall, the 37-year-old is gaining a strong 1.28 total strokes per round in the Sunshine State, and he has only missed four cuts in his past 20 starts worldwide entering this week.

Despite being only the 66th most-expensive golfer on DraftKings for THE PLAYERS, Fox is the No.44 ranked player in the world and he presents the 34th highest Perfect% in our PGA models, showing you the veteran is far too cheap at only $6,200.

To put a cherry on top, Fox is a true sleeper pick this week, with FantasyLabs projecting him to be less than 1% owned on DraftKings.