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PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Masters

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Apr 9, 2024

The time has finally come for our first major championship of the season, the Masters. This is the 88th edition of this major, which has only been played at the illustrious Augusta National Golf Club (par 72, 7,545 yards, bentgrass greens) in Augusta, Georgia. At -12, LIV Golf member Jon Rahm won last year’s Masters by four strokes at -12. This week’s field features 89 golfers, and there will be a limited cut of the top-50 and ties advancing following the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Masters

Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!

Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

Prices will increase the day after the Masters, so take advantage and get grandfathered in at Betsperts’ lowest price now!

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Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

Schauffele checks every box this week and is an elite value at this sub $10K salary. The 30-year-old is in the midst of an incredible season, with six top-10 finishes in only eight starts. Specifically, his last two finishes have been a runner-up at THE PLAYERS, which he followed up with a T5 at the Valspar the next week. This season, Schauffele has only shot over par twice in his 28 rounds, and he ranks second in both SG: Tee-to-Green and bogey avoidance. The latter ranking is crucial for Augusta National, with each of the past four winners at this famous venue finishing the event top five in bogeys avoided.

Schauffele has contended at Augusta National numerous times, with three top-10 finishes in his last five attempts at the Masters, and he has been incredible at major championships in general, with 11 top-10 finishes in 26 starts. When we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at majors – via the Betsperts Rabbit Hole Tool – Schauffele ranks fifth in total strokes gained. Despite being the sixth most expensive golfer on DraftKings, the gold medalist boasts the second-highest Perfect% in our PGA models and the fourth-best odds to win the Masters on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tony Finau ($8,600)

Finau has never missed a cut at Augusta National in six appearances, with three of these finishes being top-10 results. The 34-year-old now returns to Augusta National fresh off his best performance of the season. Finau finished runner-up at the Houston Open two weeks ago, and during this finish, he matched his career-low on the PGA TOUR with an 8-under 62 during the second round. Furthermore, Finau generated an eye popping 14.5 strokes from T2G at Memorial Park, which was the most of the Houston Open field by a notable 2.5 strokes and the most Finau has produced in the category since his win at the Mexico Open last April.

Finau now ranks eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Approach when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. The veteran also ranks 12th in 450-500-yard par four efficiency during this time, setting him up perfectly for Augusta National. Five of the 10 pars at this par 72 fall in this range and three of the past four Masters champions have finished the event top-five in 450-500-yard par four efficiency. Finau has carded five top-20 finishes in only nine starts this season and is a steal at this price, which is a huge $1,300 drop from his last start. Finau is only the 16th-most expensive player on DraftKings, but carries the eighth-highest Perfect% in our PGA models.

Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900)

Fitzpatrick has finished T14th and T10th at last two Masters, and his game is firing on all cylinders just in time for this year’s edition of the major. In his last two starts, Fitzpatrick has finished T5th at THE PLAYERS and T10th at the Valero, while gaining strokes on approach and with his putter at both these events. Including a win at the 2022 U.S. Open, Fitzpatrick ranks 15th in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at majors, via the Rabbit Hole. Additionally, the 29-year-old is the No.10 ranked golfer in the world and sports the 10th-highest Perfect% in our PGA models but is only the 26th-most expensive golfer on DraftKings.

As some final evidence to prove that Fitzpatrick is vastly underpriced, his +3500 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Masters are the best among all players priced under $8K for DFS on DraftKings and are the same odds as Patrick Cantlay, who is priced much higher at $9,400.

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Sahith Theegala ($7,700)

While most players have a tendency to struggle in their Masters debut, Theegala made some serious noise in his first start at the major last season, posting a T9 finish, including a closing round 5-under 67, which was only two strokes away from tying the lowest score of the week. During this finish, Theegala ranked seventh in total birdies among the world-class field, and he gained strokes in every major category at Augusta National.

Now Theegala returns to the legendary course a much more polished player, ranking 15 spots higher in the world golf rankings than when he first faced Augusta National a year ago. The blossoming star has recorded three top-10 finishes in his last five starts and for the season, Theegala ranks fifth in total strokes gained, 13th in SG: Putting and 11th par five performance. Four consecutive Masters victors have ranked top-three in par five efficiency during their wins at Augusta National, and Theegala is a great bargain at this salary. While it was for a much weaker field at the Houston Open, he was priced up to $10,300 for his last event, and his $7,700 salary for this week is the cheapest he has been on DraftKings in eight starts. Theegala is the 28th-most expensive option on DraftKings at this price point, but his Perfect% ranks 24th in our PGA models.