PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the WM Phoenix Open

The PGA TOUR travels from California to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which will be played at the Stadium Course of TPC Scottsdale (par 71, 7,261 yards, poa greens), which has been the case since 1987. Scottie Scheffler is the two-time defending champion of this event, and this week’s field will feature 132 golfers, a normal top-65, and ties cut following the first two rounds.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler ($11,600)

Seeking his third straight Phoenix Open title, Scheffler is well worth his slate-high salary this week. The 27-year-old boasts the highest Perfect% in our PGA models by a mile, nearly doubling Justin Thomas, who ranks second in Perfect%. Scheffler is a heavy favorite to win again at TPC Scottsdale this weekend, carrying +450 odds to win this tournament on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and his DFS salary is simply too low for these types of odds.

On top of the back-to-back wins at TPC Scottsdale, Scheffler has finished inside the top six in three of his past six starts entering this week. When we compare this field’s long-term form in our models, Scheffler ranks first in both SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee, making him a perfect match for TPC Scottsdale, where three of the last five champions have finished the event top 20 in both major categories. Scheffler has scored over 100 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts and is a safe bet to reach this feat at TPC Scottsdale this weekend.

J.T. Poston ($8,900)

Poston has produced three top-30 finishes in five appearances at TPC Scottsdale and is poised for another high finish at the desert track, playing the best golf of his career. The 30-year-old has made 13 consecutive cuts and has carded eight finishes of T11 or better during this streak.

During this span, Poston has impressively shot under par 84% of his rounds and has moved up 25 spots in the world golf rankings. The two-time PGA TOUR winner’s flat stick has been incredible – he ranks third in SG: Putting over his last 50 rounds – which is great news with a trip to TPC Scottsdale on tap. Notably, three of the past five victors at this venue have finished the tournament top 12 in SG: Putting.

Poston carries the third highest Perfect% in our models but is only the 11th most expensive option on DraftKings this week and is a fantastic value at this sub $9,000 salary.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

Beau Hossler ($8,000)

Hossler ranks 13^th in our models in Perfect% and needs to be included in your player pool this week. Not only has the 28-year-old been a consistent cut maker, missing only one cut in his last 12 starts, but Hossler has flashed great upside recently, with five top-15 finishes in his last six. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that requires elite play on the par 4s, and when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Hossler ranks third in par-4 efficiency.

The veteran finished T14th at last year’s Phoenix Open and brings even better upside this time around. Currently, Hossler sits at a career-best No.64 in the world golf rankings, which is 87 spots higher than his ranking heading into last year’s edition of this event.

Akshay Bhatia ($7,800)

While Bhatia has never competed at TPC Scottsdale before, the budding star is a strong match for the famous course. TPC Scottsdale is a track that favors elite drivers – three of the past five winners at the par 71 have ranked top 12 in SG: Off-the-Tee during their victories – and when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, Bhatia ranks 15^th in SG: Off-the-Tee. The 22-year-old has only missed one cut in his past 10 starts and has been in the mix for a win as of late, with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts.

Not only is Bhatia a tremendous value – he carries the 16th-best Perfect%, but he is only the 24^th most expensive option on DraftKings – he is expected to get overlooked, with FantasyLabs projecting Bhatia for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.