The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and other industry metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The first full-field cut event of 2020 is on tap this week for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Let’s dive in.
The Course
I did a full breakdown of the course. Check it out.
Key metrics: Par-4 scoring, birdie or better scoring, driving accuracy, fairways gained, Strokes Gained: Approach
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Scores (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
DFS Breakdown for 2020 Sony Open
Core Plays
In cash games and single-entry tournaments, I’m looking to skip most of the $10,000+ range on DraftKings, except for Collin Morikawa ($10,300 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel). Waialae sets up as a second-shot course and Morikawa has one of the best approach games on the slate. Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Additionally, Morikawa leads the field with his -4.0 average adjusted strokes on par 4s over the last 75 weeks.
Sungjae Im ($9,600 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) fits well into balanced builds. He isn’t the best ball-striker but he has the seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score over the last 75 weeks and ranks eighth in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 50 rounds.
Rory Sabbatini ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) certainly isn’t a perfect fit for the course when you look at his individual metrics, but he still has a top 20 LT Adj Rd Score and over his last 50 rounds, he ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. At the very least, I think Sabbatini is a good bet to make the cut.
Tournament Targets
I’m not normally a Brandt Snedeker ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel) fan, but he carries the seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score in this field, and he’s historically an excellent putter. His approach game isn’t the best, but he’s a short-game specialist and does well in windy conditions. If his irons aren’t totally atrocious, I think this week sets up well for him.
I wouldn’t expect Carlos Ortiz ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) to catch much ownership since he has a Buzz Score of just 2.2 in our models right now. Ortiz had a strong Fall swing, missing just one cut, along with putting together three top-four finishes. His recent form looks good, ranking 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in Total Strokes Gained over his last 24 rounds. Ortiz’s long-term form is also respectable, hitting 68.9% of GIR and 63% of fairways over the last 75 weeks.
$10,000+ Thoughts
Outside of Morikawa, I don’t have much interest in the golfers in this price range, unless I am mass-multi-entering. I’d prefer a balanced approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments. Rostering Justin Thomas at $12,000 on DraftKings will make it much harder to get 6/6 through the cut in cash games, which would put a damper on your floor. That said, if you can find other low-priced plays you’re comfortable with, you could make a case in three-entry.
Patrick Reed ran absurdly hot with his putter last week, so I’d likely just fade him altogether. Webb Simpson’s price tag is relatively expensive for him, but he’s an excellent fit for this course and is worth some tournament exposure. If MMEing I’d still prefer to be underweight relative to the field. Hideki Matsuyama has the third-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, and he might catch the lowest ownership in this range. Just 15% of him could put you overweight compared to everyone else.
Quick Hits
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,400 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds and has the benefit of already being in Hawaii from last week’s event, putting together a strong fifth-place finish. He showed he can play well in windy conditions and the current forecast is projecting some wind and rain for this tournament.
- Charles Howell ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) may not win, but he’s just one of those guys who grinds out cuts. He’s had tremendous success at this event with four top-eight finishes in his last seven appearances.
- It’s hard not to consider Corey Conners ($8,900 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel) given his excellent ball-striking. Conners has hit 73.5% of GIR over the last 75 weeks and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds.
- Chez Reavie ($8,400 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) has a top 20 LT Adj Rd Score and shouldn’t find much trouble off the tee with his 74.5% of fairways hit. Additionally, over his last 50 rounds, he ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
- Sebastian Munoz ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) has missed just two cuts since last July and has averaged a solid 14.0 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks.
- Lanto Griffin ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) is a solid play again with his -1.1 and -6.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s over the last 75 weeks.
- Ryan Palmer ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) has averaged a stellar 15.2 birdies per tournament over the last 75 weeks, and he’s been exceptional on par 4s, averaging -1.2 adjusted strokes on them over the same time frame.
- Vaughn Taylor ($7,400 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel) has been hit or miss at this course, but he’s been incredibly consistent overall, missing just one cut since last May. Overall, he ranks ninth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and boasts a top 15 LT Adj Rd Score.
- Mark Hubbard ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel) is an intriguing salary-saving option. He’s solid at hitting GIR (70.4%) and over that timeframe is averaging 0.9 eagles per tournament. Additionally, he’s good at limiting bogeys and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds. Overall, his price tag is quite cheap for someone who ranks 14th in Total Strokes Gained over that time frame.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage or where to bet on golf!
Note: Strokes Gained and efficiency data via Fantasy National.
Photo credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
Pictured: Sungjae Im
