We’ve got a lot of content rolling out this week for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin. You can find all of the lead-up information and details in the articles below.
As I start to roll out this weekly GPP article, my focus will be on the big prize pool tournaments on both sites. I will try to note early week ownership projections, as it’s an important factor when building lineups, but that will be something to stay in tune with up until lock. Now that I’ve given you that base of information, let’s dive into my favorite tournament plays of the week.
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Top Tier
Patrick Cantlay ($10,400 DraftKings/$11,700 FanDuel)
It looks like Cantlay is set to be the odd man out from an ownership perspective this week. It has to be all based on his recent form, which was admittedly poor to end last season, but his course history is impossible to ignore. He has a win and two second-place finishes — including a playoff loss last year — in his three appearances at this event. I tend to believe in course history, especially for players who can play anywhere or any time they want, and there are clearly some good vibes that Cantlay has around this track, which can be enough to turn a player’s game around.
Cantlay was projected around 10% as I began writing this article, but with the news of Tony Finau withdrawing due to a positive COVID-19 test, it will be interesting to see where his ownership goes. I would expect Matsuyama and Morikawa to see the biggest bump, though it will inevitably drive a bit more up to Cantlay, too.
Collin Morikawa ($9,800 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel)
In looking through the players who have done well at TPC Summerlin and in this event over the last several years, it jumped out as a course that was perfect for Collin Morikawa. Ball striking and tee-to-green rule the day around this course (outside of Kevin Na and his 14 strokes gained putting last year), which is the elite part of Morikawa’s game. I also love that his putting splits show a clear preference for the bentgrass greens he will see this week.
He’s one of the top-two players in my model no matter how I run it — short or long term — and regardless of ownership, which I expect to trend above 20%, he will be my top play as I build this week.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel)
I’m really interested to see how ownership plays out this week for Scottie Scheffler. He was heavily-owned as the highest-priced player last week despite openly discussing he had some rust to shake off. Scheffler opened with an over-par first round, then put together a solid Friday to make the cut by a stroke. I like that he was able to play the weekend, and as someone who didn’t have any shares of him last week, I wasn’t burned by his less-than-stellar performance. I’m hopeful that those who were disappointed may shy away this week and leave him at a great value.
Scheffler was one of the hottest players on tour to close out last season and would’ve been an interesting player at the U.S. Open. He now comes into an event we expect to be low-scoring, in which his ball-striking and birdie ability will be on display. I’m not concerned about his performance here last year when he made the cut but did little more. He’s a completely different player now. He’s a bargain on both sites in what is still a weaker field this week at TPC Summerlin, and the price stands out particularly on FanDuel.
Russell Henley ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel)
I have Russell Henley and Cameron Davis at fifth and sixth, respectively, in the stat model I ran, so in a case where I am splitting hairs between the two, projected ownership is a good tie-breaker. Henley is currently projected at half the ownership on DraftKings, so I will trend my lineups in that direction. The two are actually flipped in price on FanDuel, but ownership is similar, so that makes the decision even easier.
I will play both, but for me, Henley makes the cut here after he was on an absolute tear to finish last season. He finished the year with ninth at Wyndham, eighth at the Northern Trust, and 25th at the BMW. Taking it back to the restart following the COVID-19 break, he ranks first in tee-to-green, first on approach, second in bogey avoidance, third in ball-striking, and third in good drives gained in this field. That all seems pretty good.
Henley really found a game he hasn’t had in years, and I will look for him to jump right back on board to start the new season.
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Denny McCarthy ($7,700 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)
I liked Denny McCarthy last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship in which he finished in a tie for sixth, and I’m going right back to him this week. I loved the way he hit the ball at the Country Club of Jackson, where he gained strokes on the field across all metrics. McCarthy gained 5.5 strokes tee-to-green at the Sanderson Farms, including more than a stroke both off-the-tee and on approach.
In looking into McCarthy this week, he has a tendency to string his ball-striking together across multiple events, which has me excited for him at TPC Summerlin. If he can keep his tee-to-green game going, the best putter on tour from last season will travel well to an event that often turns into a bit of a putting contest.
Harold Varner III ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)
While Harold Varner has made the cut at the Shriners in four straight years, he has only one top-15 finish to show for it. The ironic part is that in each of the last three years, he’s gained more than two strokes on the field with his putter. HV3 is one of the top-10 players in this field in all of the ball-striking metrics since the break, and we are heading to a place where he is clearly very comfortable on the greens.
I was a little disappointed to see he wasn’t as sneaky as I’d hoped based on early ownership projections, but with the way he sets up, he will still be a play for me. I’ll look to differentiate elsewhere in my Varner lineups if his ownership continues to grow and find a way to get over the field.
Pat Perez ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)
Pat Perez had a nice run of results heading into last week’s Sanderson Farms when he missed the cut. The positive is that it was his putter that failed him last week, as he lost 4.5 strokes on the greens despite gaining strokes in all metrics tee-to-green. Prior to the MC, he had five straight made cuts, including a ninth-place finish at the Safeway.
I’m going to look past the result from last week and dial up Perez for tournaments this week at an event he has a third and a seventh in his last two appearances. His ball-striking is there, and if he finds the hot putter he had last year, he has a great ceiling at this price on both sites.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)
It seems like Rafa Cabrera-Bello has been working hard to find his game over the last month. My hunch is that he found a little something on the ball-striking side at the Sanderson Farms, as he gained more than two strokes on approach — his first time gaining in that metric in his last six events. He did it by gaining strokes with his irons in three of the four rounds, showing better consistency than he has in months. I certainly understand if that doesn’t get you overly excited, but I’m willing to give a pass to a guy who’s been a world-class player for years, especially at a price in which he won’t have to do much more than make the cut to pay it off.
There isn’t much value that stands out in the low price range this week, so I’m taking the best long-term talent. Maybe last week’s champ can rub off on his fellow Spaniard and have RCB making a run of his own this weekend.
