PGA DFS Picks: Bailey's Brief Breakdown of the Wells Fargo Championship

I get it. These days we’re all pressed for time and busy trying to life hack our way to an optimal lifestyle.

So here’s my new series: Bailey’s Brief Breakdown.

Lots of information in DFS content is just there to justify the players we like – and maybe that’s why some of you are here – to confirm your biases. Or maybe not.

Anyway, the purpose of this article is to give you a stripped-down look at some of the players I like for a given slate — ideally in 500 words or less — or with as much brevity as humanly possible.

And maybe throw in some random bits of information that I’ve found useful or interesting that aren’t related to DFS at all.

This could pertain to health, fitness, lifestyle, golf, and any other unsolicited advice or recommendation you can think of.

I’ve had a strong start to the season with one ticket to the DraftKings FGWC (during THE PLAYERS Championship), but I’m still hoping to ship a few more.

So let’s get into it!

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

Note: I’m a GPP-only player for PGA. Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metrics over the last six months unless otherwise specified.

Top Shelf PGA DFS Picks ($10,000+ DraftKings Picks)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100)

It’s hard to ignore Rory on this spot. He has a strong 67.5 Course Adjusted Round Score (Course Adj Rd Score) and is rightfully the favorite to win this tournament.

All of his metrics are solid, leading the field in driving distance and True Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

Xander Schauffele ($10,700)

Xander is an intriguing leverage play this week — ranking top three in our SimLeverage metric and is second in True Strokes Gained: Approach.

Lay Up ($9,000-$9,900 DraftKings Picks)

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

Speaking SimLeverage, Morikawa ranks second in that metric this week. Given DFS players are placing a premium on distance this week, I wouldn’t expect him to garner much attention this week.

Sungjae Im ($9,100)

Sungjae has been a cut-making machine. His last missed cut came at the Genesis Scottish Open in July of 2022.

He’ll be popular this week, but it’s warranted as he ranks ninth in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Between Clubs ($8,000-$8,900 DraftKings Picks)

Justin Thomas ($8,900)

JT has had a subpar 2023, but since January, he still ranks seventh in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Progression should be headed his way at some point, as he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since the WM Phoenix Open.

Cam Young ($8,700)

Young is priced as the No. 15 golfer, but he ranks second in distance in this field over the last six months and stands out basically everywhere else in the same time frame:

6th in True Total Strokes Gained
3rd in True Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
5th in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
10th in True Strokes Gained: Approach

Chip Shot ($7,000-$7,900 DraftKings Picks)

Wyndham Clark ($7,800)

It’s hard to ignore Clark at this price point when he ranks 14th in True Strokes Gained: Approach in this strong field. He can also mash the ball — ranking ninth in this field in driving distance.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,500)

Rodgers ranks 34th in driving distance in this field, and he’s in reasonably good form, gaining strokes on approach in three-straight tournaments.

His 27th ranking in True Total Strokes Gained is nothing to discount either.

From the Deep Rough (Under $7,000 DraftKings Picks)

Most golfers under $7,000 don’t turn into chalk very often. I like to have a few in consideration each week because you’re maybe giving up 5-8% of made-cut equity (vs. the $7K range), but you’re able to squeeze in more win equity elsewhere.

Over a large enough sample, I tend to think there isn’t a big difference between someone who is $6,800 and someone in the low-to-mid $7,000 range, but you’re getting a massive ownership discount with the former.

Luke List ($6,900)

List may be the most frustrating golfer to ride with, but he does profile well here. He ranks 13th in distance and fourth in True Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

List also has a positive SimLeverage score.

Will Gordon ($6,900)

Gordon is another masher of the golf ball (eighth in distance), and he’s projecting as a slight value in our models.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Unsolicited Advice or Recommendation (No. 1)

If you’re looking for an easy, quick meal to do in your smoker or oven, you won’t find an easier recipe to follow than this one from Nick Nesgoda on Instagram.

Note: I have no affiliation and receive zero kickback with anything recommended here.