PGA DFS Picks: Bailey's Brief Breakdown of the PGA Championship

I get it. These days we’re all pressed for time and busy trying to life hack our way to an optimal lifestyle.

So here’s my new series: Bailey’s Brief Breakdown.

Lots of information in DFS content is just there to justify the players we like – and maybe that’s why some of you are here – to confirm your biases. Or maybe not.

Anyway, the purpose of this article is to give you a stripped-down look at some of the players I like for a given slate — ideally in 500 words or less — or with as much brevity as humanly possible.

And maybe throw in some random bits of information that I’ve found useful or interesting that aren’t related to DFS at all.

This could pertain to health, fitness, lifestyle, golf, and any other unsolicited advice or recommendation you can think of.

I’ve had a strong start to the season with one ticket to the DraftKings FGWC (during THE PLAYERS Championship), but I’m still hoping to ship a few more.

So let’s get into it!

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

Note: I’m a GPP-only player for PGA. Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metrics over the last six months unless otherwise specified.

Top Shelf PGA DFS Picks ($10,000+ DraftKings Picks)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) and Jon Rahm ($11,400)

I’m lumping these two guys together because they’re just $200 apart. I don’t have a strong lean on either of them, but they are top two in our Perfect%.

Rahm (No. 1) and Scheffler (No. 2) lead the entire field by over 0.5 strokes in True Total Strokes Gained.

Leverage: Rory McIlroy — third-highest SimLeverage.

Lay Up ($9,000-$9,900 DraftKings Picks)

Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)

If you start your team in this range, it’s easy to fit in at least two of these guys. Even though Cantlay will be mega chalk, his consistency is hard to ignore.

He ranks fourth in True Total Strokes Gained and is third in our Perfect% sims.

Tony Finau ($9,500)

Finau is right behind Cantlay, ranking fifth in True Total Strokes Gained, and is fifth in our Perfect%.

Leverage: Cam Smith — fifth-highest SimLeverage.

Other players: Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im

Between Clubs ($8,000-$8,900 DraftKings Picks)

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,400)

Fitzpatrick has stated he loves tough events, and this tournament certainly fits that mold. He’s priced as the No. 20 golfer on DraftKings, but he has the 11th-best Perfect% in our sims.

Leverage: Hideki Matsuyama — highest SimLeverage in this price range.

Chip Shot ($7,000-$7,900 DraftKings Picks)

Joaquin Niemann ($7,900)

Niemann has the highest projection in this price range and is expected to be around 7-8% owned. He’s one of my favorite leverage plays this week.

Rickie Fowler ($7,600)

I haven’t used Fowler once in the last 1.5-2 years, and I may bite this week… This year, he ranks 10th in True Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in True Total Strokes Gained.

He has yet to lose strokes on approach this year:

Leverage: Taylor Moore, Patrick Reed, Denny McCarthy, Chris Kirk

Other players: Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Adam Scott

From the Deep Rough (Under $7,000 DraftKings Picks)

Most golfers under $7,000 don’t turn into chalk very often. I like to have a few in consideration each week because you’re maybe giving up 5-8% of made-cut equity (vs. the $7K range), but you’re able to squeeze in more win equity elsewhere.

Over a large enough sample, I tend to think there isn’t a big difference between someone who is $6,800 and someone in the low-to-mid $7,000 range, but you’re getting a massive ownership discount with the former.

Matt Kuchar
Hayden Buckley
K.H. Lee
Stephan Jaeger

Unsolicited Advice or Recommendation (No. 1)

Nothing this week! Best of luck with your DFS teams!

Note: I have no affiliation and receive zero kickback with anything recommended here.