PGA DFS Picks: Bailey's Brief Breakdown of the Mexico Open at Vidanta

I get it. These days we’re all pressed for time and busy trying to life hack our way to an optimal lifestyle.

So here’s my new series: Bailey’s Brief Breakdown.

Lots of information in DFS content is just there to justify the players we like – and maybe that’s why some of you are here – to confirm your biases. Or maybe not.

Anyway, the purpose of this article is to give you a stripped-down look at the players I like for a given slate — ideally in 500 words or less — or with as much brevity as humanly possible.

And maybe throw in some random bits of information that I’ve found useful or interesting that aren’t related to DFS at all.

This could pertain to health, fitness, lifestyle, golf, and any other unsolicited advice or recommendation you can think of.

I’ve had a strong start to the season with one ticket to the DraftKings FGWC, but I’m still hoping to ship a few more. So let’s get into it!

Note: I’m a GPP-only player for PGA. True Strokes Gained metrics over the last six months unless otherwise specified.

Top Shelf PGA DFS Picks ($10,000+ DraftKings Picks)

John Rahm ($12,000)

I don’t really care that he’ll be significantly owned. Overall roster construction is typically more important. Rostering Rahm with five other 20-40% golfers? Probably bad. Rostering Rahm with a mix of chalk and leverage plays? Probably good.

I’m not going to waste any of my words on why Rahm is statistically better than everyone else.

Lay Up ($9,000-$9,900 DraftKings Picks)

Wyndham Clark ($9,700)

Clark has the third-best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) in our PGA Models. LT Adj Rd Score is adjusted for strength of field and course, so I believe it’s one of the best catch-all metrics to look at — right next to Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained.

4th in True Strokes Gained: Approach
8th in True Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
3rd in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

Patrick Rodgers ($9,300)

Rodgers has the fourth-best Perfect% in our sims, and he ranks sixth in True Total Strokes Gained.

Between Clubs ($8,000-$8,900 DraftKings Picks)

Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)

Jaeger has the sixth-best Perfect% in our models and ranks 11th in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s one of the more well-rounded golfers in the field.

Chip Shot ($7,000-$7,900 DraftKings Picks)

Lee Hodges ($7,900)

Ranks 10th in our Perfect% metric and 20th in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Luke List ($7,800)

List is one of the more frustrating golfers to roster, but he leads the field in True Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and is projecting as a strong value in this weak field.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,800)

Bramlett fits into any roster construction build and ranks inside the top 14 in both True Strokes Gained: Approach and True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Distance helps at this course, and he can mash it off the tee:

Vincent Norrman ($7,200)

Norrman has quietly made three of his last five cuts, going T9, MC, T16, MC, T21 in those events.

Over the last three months, Norrman ranks 31st in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — not terrible for someone priced at $7,200.

He’s also sitting 25th in SimLeverage.

From the Deep Rough (Under $7,000 DraftKings Picks)

Most golfers under $7,000 don’t turn into chalk very often. I like to have a few in consideration each week because you’re maybe giving up 5-8% of made-cut equity (vs. the $7K range), but you’re able to squeeze in more win equity elsewhere.

Over a large enough sample, I tend to think there isn’t a big difference between someone who is $6,800 and someone in the low-to-mid $7,000 range, but you’re getting a massive ownership discount with the former.

Kevin Tway ($6,800)

Tway allows you to go stars (relatively speaking) and scrubs at this price point. He doesn’t stand out in any single metric, but he’s 34th in True Total Strokes Gained, and top 57 in every True Strokes Gained category.

Callum Tarren ($6,800)

Tarren has the sixth-best Perfect% (under $7,000) and a positive SimLeverage Score in our models. This field has forced me to consider someone with eight consecutive missed cuts.

Brent Grant ($6,800)

If you want to build your team strictly with guys who dominate from the tee box, Grant is your guy. Over the last six and 12 months, he ranks fourth and seventh in True Strokes Gained: Off-theTee.

Alejandro Tosti ($6,500)

Tosti is a 26-year-old Argentine who has mostly played on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023. Over his last 40 rounds, he ranks 46th in True Total Strokes Gained and has four-straight top-25 finishes on the KFT.

He’s worth a shot in GPPs as FanDuel Sportsbook has him at 65% to make the cut, which is near Data Golf’s 61% odds.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Unsolicited Advice or Recommendation (No. 1)

With Minnesota warming up, it’s time to bring out the golf clubs. I’m a pretty active person as I weight train three times per week while getting in another 2-4 conditioning sessions scattered throughout the week as well.

I’ve been trying to improve my mobility for the last 18 months, and if you’re trying to do the same, I highly recommend following Vernon Griffith on Instagram.

I’ve also been following his golf mobility and strength program since January, and I plan on continuing his program throughout the summer.

This program is a nice change of pace from the workout routine I follow from September through December.

Note: I have no affiliation and receive zero kickback with anything recommended here.