PGA DFS Picks: Bailey's Brief Breakdown of the AT&T Byron Nelson

I get it. These days we’re all pressed for time and busy trying to life hack our way to an optimal lifestyle.

So here’s my new series: Bailey’s Brief Breakdown.

Lots of information in DFS content is just there to justify the players we like – and maybe that’s why some of you are here – to confirm your biases. Or maybe not.

Anyway, the purpose of this article is to give you a stripped-down look at some of the players I like for a given slate — ideally in 500 words or less — or with as much brevity as humanly possible.

And maybe throw in some random bits of information that I’ve found useful or interesting that aren’t related to DFS at all.

This could pertain to health, fitness, lifestyle, golf, and any other unsolicited advice or recommendation you can think of.

I’ve had a strong start to the season with one ticket to the DraftKings FGWC (during THE PLAYERS Championship), but I’m still hoping to ship a few more.

So let’s get into it!

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

Note: I’m a GPP-only player for PGA. Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained metrics over the last six months unless otherwise specified.

Top Shelf PGA DFS Picks ($10,000+ DraftKings Picks)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,900)

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Scheffler leads this field in True Strokes Gained: Approach, Off-the-Tee, and Tee-to-Green. He’ll come with hefty ownership this week, but it’s hard to ignore him in this spot.

He gives off Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open type vibes.

Scheffler leads our Perfect% by a significant margin in our sims.

Lay Up ($9,000-$9,900 DraftKings Picks)

Tom Kim ($9,600)

Most of these 9-10K+ golfers will garner a fair amount of ownership, but I like Kim in this spot as he’ll get the better wind draw, and he has some of the best irons in this field (fifth in True Strokes Gained: Approach).

Matt Kuchar ($9,000)

I’m not really a Kuchar guy, but he’s an intriguing option at an event where you’ll need to make some putts. He ranks eighth in True Strokes Gained: Putting — and more importantly — 11th in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Kuchar currently has the ninth-best Perfect% in our sims.

Between Clubs ($8,000-$8,900 DraftKings Picks)

Seamus Power ($8,900)

None of Power’s metrics stand out, but he can gain strokes across the board in all categories. He also leads our PGA Models in SimLeverage.

Tom Hoge ($8,500)

Hoge’s irons rank second in this field — and he’s popping with our sixth-best Perfect%.

Min Woo Lee ($8,400)

Lee has flashed some upside, with four top-six finishes since last November, but he’s also lost strokes on approach in four-straight tournaments.

While his irons can be erratic, he can still dominate on and around the greens, along with off the tee when his game is on.

He’s a viable leverage play this week with the fifth-best SimLeverage.

Chip Shot ($7,000-$7,900 DraftKings Picks)

Davis Riley ($7,900)

Riley is a boom-or-bust player, who enters this week 13th in True Strokes Gained: Approach and has a positive Perfect% and SimLeverage in our models.

Ben Griffin ($7,500)

Griffin should be chalky this week, but he’s a solid play in this mid-range. He ranks 26th in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and he can get hot with his putter — ranking ninth in this field.

Adam Schenk ($7,300)

Schenk may not offer much leverage in tournaments, but he’s still projecting as a decent value in this subpar field.

Overall, he ranks 32nd in True Total Strokes Gained.

Other plays: Sam Stevens, Brandon Wu, Aaron Rai, Justin Suh

From the Deep Rough (Under $7,000 DraftKings Picks)

Most golfers under $7,000 don’t turn into chalk very often. I like to have a few in consideration each week because you’re maybe giving up 5-8% of made-cut equity (vs. the $7K range), but you’re able to squeeze in more win equity elsewhere.

Over a large enough sample, I tend to think there isn’t a big difference between someone who is $6,800 and someone in the low-to-mid $7,000 range, but you’re getting a massive ownership discount with the former.

The $6,000 range is rough this week, but some guys in my player pool are Doc Redman, Kramer Hickok, Pierceson Coody, and Chad Ramey.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Unsolicited Advice or Recommendation (No. 1)

If you have a home gym, consider getting a landmine. You can do just about any workout you can think of with that piece of equipment, and you don’t need a lot of space.

Note: I have no affiliation and receive zero kickback with anything recommended here.