Fade the chalk!
When building your rosters in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) for PGA DFS, projected ownership should factor into your lineup decisions in certain situations. That doesn’t mean you should never roster highly-owned golfers, but completely ignoring ownership can prove costly.
Having some contrarian plays in your lineup can improve your chances of winning a large GPP in PGA DFS contests.
Using the PGA DFS Contest Ownership Dashboard, we can clearly identify the golfers projected to be highly-owned in this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Let’s take a look at three of those players and evaluate which golfers could be great GPP pivot options with lower projected ownership.
Note: All pricing via DraftKings.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800)
Projected Ownership: 21.2%
I am fully fading Fitzpatrick in all formats this week. While I understand the appeal and recognize both the course fit and current form, I simply can’t play him at this price and ownership. To pay off his price tag this week, Fitz would likely need a top 10 finish. The last time the Englishman was owned more than 16% in DFS was at the 2020 Masters, when he finished 46th. Fitzpatrick is a skilled player, but whenever we get to an event where he seems like the perfect play, he lets you down.
Pivot Options:
- Patrick Reed ($10,200): 14% projected ownership — Reed is the far superior player with much greater win equity.
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns ($8,400)
Projected Ownership: 19%
I get it. Burns is a statistical darling and was even No. 1 in my model on Action Network this week. He’s the total package for what we’re looking for this week at Bay Hill. But like Fitz, Burns has a knack of letting us down whenever there’s a consensus that he will play well in a given week.
Coming off of an impressive seventh-place finish at the Houston Open to end the season, Burns amassed 21% ownership in the opening event of 2021 (The American Express). Can you guess what he did there? You got it — he missed the cut.
I am a big fan of Burns’ game, but fading him feels like the correct game theory move this week.
Pivot Options:
- Marc Leishman ($8,200): 12% projected ownership — Leishman has immaculate course history and I trust that he can win if he gets into contention (unlike Burns).
- Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800): 8% projected ownership — While a bit more expensive, Oosthuizen is the more consistent golfer.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,900)
Projected Ownership: 13%
NeSmith is another guy who the stat projections love this week. His ball-striking has been excellent and he’s a good putter on Bermudagrass. With that being said, in the $6K range, no chalk is good chalk. The guys priced down there are priced that low for a reason — you simply cannot predict what they are going to do on a week to week basis. For that reason, I try not to play any $6K golfer who projects double-digit ownership.
Pivot Options:
- Keith Mitchell ($6,700): 3.5% Projected Ownership — Major boom-or-bust play but has popped in the past in Florida after a string of bad form. (Mitchell for a top-five finish is also my prop pick for the week.)
- Tom Hoge ($6,500): 4% Projected Ownership — He finished 15th here last year and loves putting on Bermuda.
