The Masters is always the biggest event of the year, but it’s carrying an even bigger buzz this time around with the improbable return of Tiger Woods all but guaranteed. It’s tough to predict just how he will perform this week, and that is indicated by his low ownership. However, just having him on the course for at least the first two rounds is great for the game.
On the DFS side, we get our second Millionaire Maker of the year as DraftKings rolls out three versions of it, this time with three entry points at $15, $100, and $4,444. The $15 contest will be our focus this week as we look to beat 326,000 other lineups to take down the ultimate top prize.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top Tier
Justin Thomas $10,300
I’ve made it pretty clear throughout the week that my pick to win this week is Justin Thomas. While I don’t like to eat chalk in this range typically, I think we can do it this week, even in a big GPP like this, as long as we are careful about our construction beyond him.
JT is trending well over 20% for ownership this week, with only Cameron Smith and Corey Conners as challengers for the highest-owned players of the slate. I would limit lineups to have at most two of these three in the same lineup and think it is certainly viable to play just one.
JT would be my one here as he comes in off of some really good weeks across The Players and Valspar. I think he is ready to win a green jacket, and he’s a price point that allows us to build with quality players around him.
He is going to be my main starting point in MME this week, but I will have exposure to the others around him as well.
Patrick Cantlay $9,500
While Jordan Spieth is my primary play in this range, he has gained some steam since the start of the week. I’ll instead highlight another player I am a big fan of for GPPs. Patrick Cantlay was the player of the year on TOUR last season after he put together four wins.
If we had told anyone at the end of last season that Cantlay would be the 11th priced player on the board and at +2500 for odds heading into The Masters, we would’ve projected that to be full chalk. Instead, he’s had a bit of an issue with his form to start 2022, even in spite of three top-10 results and a runner-up finish.
I expect to see a Cantlay closer to the version we saw last season this week at Augusta National, and with ownership hovering inside of 10%, he makes for a great ownership play with a true winning ceiling that is perfect for large-field GPPs.
Mid Tier
Shane Lowry $8,800
This range is where I think large-field GPPs will be won this week as it is a tough group of players to break down. We have some debutants, that Tiger Woods guy and his playing partners, as well as some older vets all muddled together between $8,000-$8,900. All of these players can be viable for their own reasons, but none stand out as must-plays.
The highest-ranked player by the FantasyLabs PGA Player Model in this range is Shane Lowry. He stands out well above the rest, especially when you give a little higher rating to the all-important course history metric this week. We know that experience is huge around Augusta, and Lowry certainly has that along with some positively trending results. We will need better than his most recent 21st-place finish this week, but his form seems to imply we can expect that as he has had a great start to 2022.
I don’t think we have to worry about his ownership getting any further than the 15% range and with him rating out the best here, he has a mix of safety and upside that we can’t get from other players here.
Tony Finau $8,100
My favorite play in this price range for GPPs is Tony Finau. He has consistently put up results at The Masters and his lack of form coming into the week has others looking in another direction. Finau started to turn that around last week at the Valero as he was really solid with his ball-striking, gaining six shots on the field. He will certainly need to clean up his play around the green to truly contend for another top 10 type of result, but he has shown an ability to play this course across just four appearances.
I love his single-digit ownership with his scoring ability and upside this week, even as a play to get different in smaller field GPPs, but also in contests like the Milly Maker.
Value Plays
Paul Casey $7,600
Most majors are Paul Casey chalk weeks as he is typically mispriced in this same range with a comfortable floor and big ceiling that sticks out in these contests. This year, he comes in off of a withdrawal from the Dell Match Play, where a back injury only allowed him to play two holes all week. In GPPs, we can take on the risk of another withdrawal or the fact that his back could still be ailing him as the suppressed ownership at less than half of what Corey Conners is expected to pull down for the potential upside he brings.
Casey has similar results to Conners’ recent success across his career at Augusta National, and in a more normal scenario, they would likely balance each other out on the ownership end. He’s one of many pivots in this range that I think are viable to get away from the chalk a bit, especially in lineups where we are using Justin Thomas up top.
Bubba Watson $7,300
Max Homa and Marc Leishman are two guys I really like long-term and especially the latter at The Masters. They are a bit chalky this week, and frankly, it’s hard for me to fathom playing a chalky Homa in his third masters. I don’t mind him as a bet at triple-figure odds or for a top 10 or 20 type of finish, but there are too many options in this range to eat some relatively inexperienced chalk.
Bubba Watson will serve as one of my favorite pivots this week. He won’t have long-time caddy, Ted Scott, guiding him around Augusta this week, but that seems to be a rare split that has worked for both parties. Bubba hasn’t been producing much in terms of results early this year, and I am only willing to look past that for a player like him at The Masters, which is a course he seems to show up at every year.
He still has top-10 upside at this stage in his career at AGNC, and most wouldn’t be surprised to see his name in that range at the end of the week, but they will have trouble clicking him before the tournament.
Sleepers
Brian Harman $6,800
One of the key pieces to the $1M winning lineup from The Masters last year was Brian Harman. The Georgia native posted a 12th-place finish from a lower price range and I think he is setting up to be a key piece again this year at lower projected ownership.
Many in this range are set to go to Gary Woodland just above Harman. Woodland is certainly playing well, but even at the best stages of his career, he struggled in this event. He seems to still be working to figure things out around Augusta, and Harman is coming in off a Valspar Championship where he posted a top-5 finish with 5.7 shots gained ball-striking.
I’ll look for him to carry that momentum into this week on a course that has historically favored lefties like him,
Thomas Pieters $6,600
While I am going to be fading Woodland to some extent this week, I will eat a little bit of chalk with Thomas Pieters. The value he brings for me is with his scoring volatility. That volatility could certainly send him home after his round on Friday, but if he can stick around for the weekend, he has the scoring upside to put up points beyond his finishing position.
He also has a 4th-place finish from his first trip to Augusta to show just how high that ceiling can be, and he makes for a nice piece even at 10% for GPP lineups.
