The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Genesis Open will be played at Riviera Country Club and will feature a stacked field with seven of the top 10 players in the FedExCup rankings competing this week. Top 70 and ties make the cut after 36 holes.
Let’s dive in!
The Course
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Riviera CC. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 43.47 DraftKings points and a -5.39 Plus/Minus with a 41.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Eagles: +4.10
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +3.80
- Recent Driving Distance: +3.19
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.83
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.54
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.25
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.15
- Long-Term Eagles: +1.95
- Recent Birdies: +1.84
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.82
- Recent Bogeys: +1.57
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +1.37
- Recent Scrambling: +1.36
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +1.28
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +0.67
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.63
- Long-Term Birdies: +0.59
- Recent Missed Cuts: +0.58
- Recent Putts Per Round: +0.52
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +0.41
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.07
Riviera CC is a par-71, 7,322-yard course. It’s rather long, featuring four par-4s that exceed 470 yards, along with two par-5s that are 580 yards or longer. So, it’s no surprise that our driving distance metrics are near the top of these results. Driving accuracy won’t be a factor as neither metric tested positively above the baseline Plus/Minus — bombs away!
It’s also notable that a lot of recent form metrics are near the top of the metrics I backtested, so I might be inclined to lean on recent form more than I typically do.
Key metrics to focus on: Birdie or better scoring, driving distance, par-4 scoring, greens in regulation.
And as usual, I like Long-Term and Recent Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) as a catch-all metric.
Best DFS Plays at 2019 Genesis Open
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings pricing)
The top end is loaded this week with Dustin Johnson ($11,400 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel), Justin Thomas ($11,000 DraftKings; $11,900 FanDuel), Rory McIlroy ($10,700 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel), John Rahm ($10,400 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel) and Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel) all checking in above $10,000 on DraftKings.
That said, early roster construction for cash games has me leaning toward a balanced build.
Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dustin Johnson
You can make a case for all of these golfers, however, DJ is likely the guy I’d load up on this range if I was looking inside the top tier. He won here in 2017 and has seven (!) top-10 finishes in his 11 appearances at this tournament. More importantly, he leads the field in Long-Term (LT) par-4 scoring, LT Adj Rd Score, birdies per tournament, and he’s inside the top five in eagles per tournament.
A DeChambeau build also makes a ton of sense if you want to save $1,200. Bryson is red hot, sporting an exceptional 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score over his past four tournaments. Over those four tournaments, DeChambeau’s worst finish is his 10th place at the Sony Open. During this four-tournament span he’s averaging an absurd -6.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
$9,900-$9,000
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel) is in solid recent form with his 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score, 76.4% GIR and -3.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s over his past three tournaments. His 15th-place finish in Phoenix might have been disappointing for some, but his putter ran cold, averaging 30 Putts Per Round (PPR). Outside of that, he was rock solid, hitting 79.2% of GIR and -6.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
If his putter runs hot this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Matsuyama near the top of the leaderboard.
Tony Finau’s ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,600 FanDuel) main concern is that his recent form (69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score) leaves much to be desired. But he owns the fourth-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, and he’s hitting 70.1% of GIR while averaging 16.3 birdies per tournament and -1.5 adjusted strokes on par 4s in that same timeframe. I’ll be riding with Finau on a course that suits bombers well.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,000 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) withdrew from Pebble Beach last week due to illness, so I don’t think it’s anything to be concerned about. Cantlay boasts a top seven LT Adj Rd Score (68.4), but he’s priced as the 13th-most expensive golfer. Overall, he’s an excellent fit for this course with his 70.4% LT GIR, 304.7-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) and -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
$8,900-$8,000
Paul Casey ($8,800 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel) gets a bad rep for his two PGA wins, but he still has 13 wins on the Euro tour. He missed the cut at the Sony Open, but otherwise he’s been fantastic, putting together second-place finishes at the Singapore Open and last week at Pebble Beach.
Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Casey
Casey seems like a safe play this week as he’s a good course fit, has a 9% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks and he’s made the cut at this event in each of his past six appearances.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel) is second in the field with his 73.4% LT GIR, and he’s decently long off the tee, evidenced by his 303.9-yard LT DD. Fleetwood is similar to a lot of golfers in this price range in that he possesses a 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score, which is the ninth-best mark in the field. But he’s priced as the 17th-most expensive golfer.
I’d expect Fleetwood to be among the most popular golfers this week. And deservedly so, with his 16.3 birdies per tournament and -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s.
Cameron Smith ($8,400 DraftKings; $10,400 FanDuel) doesn’t fit the bomber mold, but his 298.8-yard LT DD should suffice. He’s in excellent form with his 67.9 recent Adj Rd Score. Smith already has two top-10 finishes this season, including a victory at the Australian PGA Championship in December.
$7,900-$7,000
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) is the only golfer in this range who has a LT Adj Rd Score below 69.0 and is an excellent value with his 13th-best LT Adj Rd Score. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership in our models, so it doesn’t appear that he’ll be a popular option.
Hatton’s tag is a small price to pay for someone who ranks fourth in the field with his -2.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s, along with his 15.1 birdies per tournament. Hatton could fair well here on the small greens since he ranked seventh in proximity to the hole last season in 58 measured rounds, and he presently ranks second this year in 12 measured rounds.
Imagine how good Keegan Bradley ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) could be if he knew how to putt? He’s second in the field with 0.7 eagles per tournament and Keegs is a solid cut-maker, missing just three cuts dating back to last year’s Genesis Open (where one of his three missed cuts came from). He’s shown success here in the past, making five of seven cuts with four top 20s and two top fives.
Bradley is likely too cheap at his $7,300 price tag with a 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score. That said, he’s probably going to make you sweat up until cut day with his putting struggles. This season he ranks 213th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charles Howell III
Charles Howell III ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) has the highest Vegas odds to win in this price range, which means he’s likely underpriced relative to how sportsbooks think he will do this week. Historically, golfers with comparable salaries and Vegas odds have averaged a +6.08 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Riviera CC, which is +11.47 DraftKings points above the baseline Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). Granted, it’s from a small sample size, but the point still stands: Howell is underpriced relative to his odds.
Jason Kokrak ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) is off to a hot start to the season with three top 20s and sporting a 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score. In that timeframe, he’s hitting 75% of GIR and -7.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s. He’s quietly been extremely consistent, with his last missed cut coming at the British Open in July of last year. Further, over his past four appearances at Riviera, Kokrak has finished inside the top 22 in three of them.
$6,900 and Below
The way roster construction pans out for this week, there’s little reason to dive this low into the pricing tiers, so I’ll just be avoiding it altogether.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Tony Finau
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
