The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open is one of the best tournaments on tour with a stacked field featuring Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau and many more.
Let’s get to it!
The Course
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which ones have been the most valuable at Torrey Pines. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 43.05 DraftKings points and a -4.77 Plus/Minus with a 41.5% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +6.96
- Recent Missed Cuts: +2.86
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.80
- Long-Term Eagles: +2.46
- Recent Birdies: +2.35
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.09
- Recent Bogeys: +1.82
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +1.68
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +1.41
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +1.37
- Recent Scrambling: +1.09
- Recent Driving Distance: +1.04
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.91
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +0.53
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +0.18
This tournament will be played on two different courses: Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South. One round will be played on the North course, which is the easier the of the two (though still rather difficult). The three other rounds will be played at Torrey Pines South, which is one of the most difficult courses on tour, checking in at a lengthy 7,698 yards.
Bombers will have an advantage here, but short hitters have still shown success at Torrey Pines. The South course has deep rough to go along with the narrow fairways. Hitting long irons out of the thick rough typically makes things difficult on golfers.
None of the metrics I backtested graded out particularly well on this troublesome course, but there will be a few metrics I am paying attention to. The most crucial might be par-5 scoring since those could be the holes the golfers need to take advantage of to make it to the weekend.
And as usual, I love Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) as a catch-all metric.
Key metrics to focus on: LT Adj Rd Score, par-5 and par-4 scoring, driving distance, greens in regulation, birdie or better scoring.
I’ve also decided to change the format of this column to focus on each pricing tier as it relates to DraftKings pricing for simplicity, though FanDuel pricing will also be listed. Let’s get to it!
Best DFS Plays at 2019 Famers Insurance Open
$10,000 and Above
A case can be made for all of the golfers in this range, but I’m partial to a balanced build with the golfers in the $8,000-plus range.
That said, if you are building around one of the guys in this range, John Rahm ($11,400 DraftKings; $11,900 FanDuel) and Justin Rose ($10,800 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel) make the most sense. Rahm is the current favorite to win the tournament, while Rose is tied with Rory McIlroy for the second-best odds.
Rahm and Rose also lead this tier in greens in regulation over the past 75 weeks, both hitting 71% GIR or more, along with ranking inside the top-three in birdies per tournament and par-4 and par-5 scoring.
$9,900-$9,000
Tony Finau ($9,900 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) has shown success here in the past with four top-24 finishes, including back-to-back top-six finishes in the past two years. More importantly, Finau has the distance to do well at Torrey. His -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s and -5.5 adjusted strokes on par 5s over the past 75 weeks are among the best marks in the fied. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s missed just 7% of cuts in the same timeframe.
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tony Finau at Torrey Pines
Since December, Marc Leishman ($9,700 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) has parlayed together three top-three finishes. Overall, he’s a steady cut-maker, missing just 11% of cuts over the past 75 weeks. Further, he can take advantage of his par-5 opportunities as he’s averaging -5.1 adjusted strokes on them.
Since 2012, Leishman owns two top-eight finishes and two top 30s here with just two missed cuts.
Rickie Fowler ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) has a fairly balanced game, and he’s one one of my favorite plays despite his poor course history here. His 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score is the third-best mark in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 9 golfer. Overall, his -2.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s is tied or better than everyone in the top tier with the exception of Rose. Further, Fowler’s 7.8 bogeys per tournament is the best mark from this tier and the $10,000-plus tier, which pairs well with his 15.6 birdies per tournament.
Patrick Cantlay’s ($9,200 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel) price dropped $1,400 on DraftKings with the stronger field, but he’s still a strong play for balanced builds with his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score, 71.4% GIR, 304-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD).
The only knock on Fowler and Cantlay this week is their respective -4.6 and -4.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s trails some of the top-priced guys, but those numbers still rank among the top 30% of the field.
$8,900-$8,000
Cameron Champ’s ($8,500 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) 333.3-yard LT DD is the longest mark in the field by more than 13 yards. Even more impressive is his accuracy is still solid, hitting 63% of his fairways and 72.6% of GIR. Champ is a strong consideration with his 0.6 eagles per tournament and -5.9 adjusted strokes on par 5s.
Keegan Bradley ($8,300 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) has missed the cut just twice here since 2012, along with putting together back-to-back top-five finishes. His 300.4-yard LT DD is fairly long, but he’s also able to keep the ball in the fairway, hitting 67.3% of fairways over the past 75 weeks.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel) and Emiliano Grillo ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) are the last two golfers I’m considering in this price range. They each have comparable metrics to each other and each have missed-cut rates under 15% and have hit at least 69% of GIR over the past 75 weeks.
$7,900-$7,000
Sung-jae Im ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) is off to a hot start this year with 12th- and 16th-place finishes in his past two tournaments. He boasts some of the best long-term metrics in this tier, evidenced by his 71% GIR, 67.2% Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA), 14.9 birdies per tournament and -5.4 adjusted strokes on par 5s.
Billy Horschel ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) has a decent 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score for this price range, and he’s been serviceable here in the past, missing the cut just twice over his past seven outings, including three-straight made cuts.
Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Billy Horschel
Outside of his eighth place in 2016, Horschel has had rather lackluster finishes, but he’s at least making cuts. He also done well at avoiding trouble as he’s hit 67.3% of fairways and 70.7% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. He’s also done a solid job at limiting his bogeys as evidenced by his 7.8 bogeys per tournament.
Kyle Stanley ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel) owns of the best LT Adj Rd Scores in this price range, and he’s no stranger to Torrey Pines, making five of seven cuts since 2012. He’s got one round under his belt this year with a 22nd-place finish at the Sony Open, but even more impressive is the fact that Stanley has missed just six cuts dating back to January 2018.
Keith Mitchell ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel) is always intriguing, especially when he’s priced this low since he can pile up birdies (14.8 per tournament), and he’s long off the tee (313.2-yard LT DD). Dating back to September, Mitchell has four top-25 finishes over his past six tournaments.
$6,900 and Below
I’ll go back to the well again with Roberto Castro ($6,700 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) as my favorite punt play.
While Castro is unnecessary for cash games, he’s intriguing for tournaments. Over the past 75 weeks, he’s hitting 71.7% of GIR, 70.3% of fairways and averaging an absurd -6.2 adjusted strokes on par 5s. He also boasts a solid birdie and bogey combination, averaging 15.8 birdies per tournament and just 7.8 bogeys.
While a lot of those stats come from Web.com, he’s made the cut in his last four PGA events, along with three of four cuts at Torrey Pines since 2012.
Carlos Ortiz ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel) has very similar metrics to Castro, but he’s longer off the tee (307.7-yard LT DD) and has made both cuts in his two appearances at Torrey Pines with a 49th-place finish in 2016 and 11th-place finish in 2015, respectively.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Rickie Fowler
Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
