The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Players Championship has come and gone, but more importantly, The Masters is just three weeks away. Before that, though, everyone is headed to Innisbrook Resort to play the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course, which is one of the toughest courses on tour.
Let’s dive in!
The Course
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Innisbrook. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 39.67 DraftKings points and a -8.79 Plus/Minus with a 38.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively relative to the baseline:
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +4.75
- Long-Term Eagles: +3.49
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.97
- Recent Birdies: +2.42
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.93
- Recent Scrambling: +0.97
- Recent Missed Cuts: +0.85
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +0.66
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +0.60
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +0.54
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +0.03
Copperhead is a par-71 course 7,340 yards in length, but it’s rare because it features five par 3s and four par 5s. Distance off the tee won’t come into play here, as golfers will likely have to club down to hit their spots, given that the fairways are harder to hit here than at most courses.
Historically, golfers who ranked well in par-4 scoring have fared well, but par-5 scoring will also be a key metric because that’s where most of the birdie opportunities will come. This is likely why Long-Term Eagles are high on the list of positive metrics: When golfers are getting eagles, they’re doing it on par 5s, not par 4s.
As was the case at the Honda Classic, bogey avoidance is also a metric consider.
Key metrics to focus on: Par-4 and par-5 scoring, bogeys per tournament/bogey avoidance, eagle or better scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Best DFS Plays for the Valspar Championship
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings Pricing)
Dustin Johnson ($11,500 DraftKings; $12,600 FanDuel) is a massive favorite for this tournament, which isn’t all that surprising. If I can find the salary for him in the lower tiers, he’ll anchor my cash teams since he leads the field in adjusted strokes on par 4s and par 5s along with 18.4 birdies per tournament and just 7.7 bogeys per tournament.
Additionally, over his past 50 rounds, DJ leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
If I don’t pay all the way up at DJ, Sergio Garcia ($10,100 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) or Webb Simpson ($10,400 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel) will be guys I roster. Garcia can exploit par 5s as he’s averaging -5.1 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks, and he’s in terrific form with his 67.7 Recent Adj Rd Score. He also has a strong approach game, ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.
Simpson’s -4.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s is worse than we might expect for his price, but he is solid on par 4s, averaging -1.8 adjusted strokes on them. He’s also elite around the greens, ranking first in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and second in bogey avoidance over the past 50 rounds.
$9,900-$9,000
I’m always interested in Gary Woodland ($9,900 DraftKings; $10,600 FanDuel): His -5.7 adjusted strokes on par 5s along with his eagles and birdies per tournament rank inside the top six in the field. However, his 9.2 bogeys per tournament are among the worst. That said, Woodland is an incredible cut-maker, and he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his past 50 rounds.
Keegan Bradley ($9,400 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel) is a Woodland-esque player. Keegs ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and second in Strokes Gained: Approach, but like Woodland, he can’t putt (typically), and his 9.4 bogeys per tournament is the eighth-worst mark in the field. One area where Keegan can thrive is par 3s, since three of them are 200-225 yards, and he ranks fourth in par-3 efficiency over the past 50 rounds from that range, per Fantasy National.
Jim Furyk ($9,200 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) has flourished at this course in the past. Since 2011, he’s made every cut at Copperhead, with five top-20 and three top-seven finishes. He enters this tournament in excellent form, sporting a 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score.
$8,900-$8,000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($8,800 DraftKings; $10,000 FanDuel) burned a lot of people at massive ownership at The Players last week, but he’s still a strong play this week. His 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score is a top-12 mark in the field, but he’s priced more efficiently this week as the No. 15 golfer.
Jason Kokrak ($8,600 DraftKings; $9,700 FanDuel) gets his usual mention: He hasn’t missed a cut since the British Open last July. He ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds and 16th or better in proximity to the hole in approach shots from 150-175 yards, 175-200 yards and 200-plus yards (per Fantasy National), which is where 68% of approach shots on this course have historically come from.
Russell Knox ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has a strong approach game, ranking 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds. Additionally, he’s a solid bogey avoider, as he’s averaged just 8.2 bogeys per tournament while ranking 12th in bogey avoidance.
$7,900-$7,000
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) boasts the 10th-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 25 golfer on DraftKings. His 14.3 birdies per tournament ranks 13th, and he’s fourth fourth in bogey avoidance over his past 50 rounds. The main issue with Hatton is that his approach game leaves much to be desired, ranking 68th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.
Sung-jae Im ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) has dominated par 5s over the past 75 weeks, averaging -5.3 adjusted strokes on them. He’s also averaged 14.5 birdies per tournament and just 7.8 bogeys per tournament over the same time frame.
Zach Johnson ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel) is one of four players in the field who has gained adjusted strokes on par 3s, 4s and 5s over the past 75 weeks. While ZJ’s recent form isn’t great with his 70.3 Recent Adj Rd Score, he should be a decent fit for the course based on his long-term form, where he ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Sung Kang ($7,200 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel) doesn’t have great long-term metrics. In fact, they’re bad. But over his past five events, he owns a 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the Phoenix Open in February.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) has been solid with his -1.0 adjusted strokes on par 4s and 14.1 birdies per tournament. He can be volatile with his 29% missed-cut rate, but he has made his last three cuts while gaining strokes on approach in all three events. His putter held him back the most in that time frame.
Roberto Castro ($7,100 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel) is popping in my model with -6.0 adjusted strokes on par 5s along with his 15.3 birdies and 8.0 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks. He also ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in par-3 efficiency from 200-225 yards over his past 50 rounds.
$6,900 and Below
Adam Schenk ($6,900 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) ranks 31st in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds, and he’s missed just two cuts this season, but he’s extremely volatile with a 36% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Sergio Garcia
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
