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Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
The PGA Tour stops in Akron, Ohio, this week for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club. Shane Lowry won this event last year. Amazingly, Lowry and Hunter Mahan, who won in 2010, are the only winners at Firestone in the last 21 years who haven’t won a Major Championship. Jason Day and Adam Scott will attempt to become just the third player to win two WGC Events in one year. Tiger Woods did it six times and Phil Mickelson did it in 2009.
Adjusted Round Score: 67.9, Jason Day
Day is a flat-out stud. Both his Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), as well as his Long-Term Scrambling mark of 64.4 percent, are the best in the field. Day is not afraid to drop bombs when he needs to, as evidenced by his 309.2-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), which is fourth in the field. And he knows what to do when he reaches the green: His 28.3 Long-Term Putts Per Round (LT PPR) is tied for third-best. Day finished 12th here last year and fourth in 2011. My two-year-old son walks around the house screaming “JASON DAY!” for no reason five to seven days per week which is also . . . interesting?
Long-Term Adj Rd Score, Long-Term Driving, Long-Term Putters, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Driving Distance (yds): 313.7, Dustin Johnson
Paulina Gretzky’s baby daddy and United States Open Champion Johnson can absolutely crush the golf ball off the tee. His LT DD average is a full 2.5 yards longer than fellow bomber Bubba Watson. Johnson’s 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score is third-best in this elite field and his 0.8 Eagles Per Tournament mark is tied for the top spot with Watson. A small sample of comparable bombers with elite Adj Rd Scores have an amazing +11.51 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. DJ’s best finish at Firestone was 15th in 2010.
Greens in Regulation (%): 71.4, Justin Rose
Euros love them some Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Rose is no exception. He’s one of only four golfers with a LT GIR of at least 70 percent and his 71.4 percent mark is absolutely elite. Rose’s LT Adj Rd Score of 68.7 is good enough for sixth in this week’s field. And Rose apparently loves Firestone, as evidenced by his 68.2 Course Adj Rd Score, second in the field among golfers who have made more than two starts at the course. He finished third here last year and fourth in 2014. Rose is not in great recent form, however, missing two of his last four cuts.
Birdies Per Tournament: 16.8, Jordan Spieth
Day leads the field with a 17 Birdies per Tournament average, and next up is Spieth. Spieth’s 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score and 63.8 percent LT Scrambling marks are also second to only Day in this field. Golfers with comparable LT Adj Rd Scores and Birdie averages have historically accumulated a +2.03 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Spieth finished 10th at this tournament last year.
Par 5 Performance: -5.7, Bubba Watson
Par 5 Performance is the average adjusted strokes, relative to par, on Par 5 holes per tournament in the past 75 weeks. Would it surprise you to know that Jason Day leads this category at -6? Me neither. But Bubba isn’t far behind. Watson’s 311.2 LT DD is good for second in the field, his 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is fourth, and his 69.8 LT GIR is sixth-best. Watson finished second in this tournament last year and his 68.8 Course Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth among golfers who have made at least five starts at Firestone.
Recent Metrics
Even in this elite field there are three golfers with Vegas Implied Odds of winning of 10 percent or better, and this is a no-cut event, meaning all of your golfers will play four days barring any withdrawals. For more on how that should affect your decision to roster Jason Day and other strategy talk, check out Bryan Mears dropping Vegas knowledge.
Recent Adj Rd Score: 66.3, Branden Grace
Grace’s Recent Adj Rd Score is off the charts. It’s more than a full stroke better than Day’s 67.4 mark and more than a half stroke better than Johnson’s second-best mark of 66.9. Grace’s 301.6 Recent DD is fourth-best, and his 69.5 Recent GIR is sixth-best in the field. Players with comparable recent metrics have provided a +2.52 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Grace’s 17th-place finish here last year was his best in four starts.
Greens in Regulation (%): 75, Jason Dufner
Jason D. leads another category, but this time it’s Dufner instead of Day. His 75 percent Recent GIR is 2.4 percentage points better than his nearest competitor, Jim Furyk. Both Dufner’s 67.7 Recent Adj Rd Score and 63.1 percent Recent Scrambling marks are sixth-best in the field. Golfers who have previously combined elite Recent GIR with Scrambling percentages of 60 or better have a +4.03 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Dufner has a fourth and seventh-place finish at Firestone in three starts.
Scrambling (%): 70.3, Zach Johnson
Johnson is the only player in the field with a Recent Scrambling percentage of 70 or better, and nobody really comes close. Johnson’s 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 11th in the field and his 27.6 Recent PPR is third-best. Players combining excellent Recent Scrambling with low PPR totals have historically produced a +1.36 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Zach’s best finish at Firestone was fourth in 2013.
Birdies Per Tournament: 18.8, Charl Schwartzel
Schwartzel is putting up monster Recent Birdie numbers and his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th-best in the field. Players with comparable Recent Birdie averages have returned a +4.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Schwartzel’s 69.4 Course Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh-best among golfers who have made at least five starts at Firestone; his best finish was fourth in 2014.
Par 4 Performance: -3.7, Brooks Koepka
Dustin Johnson actually leads this metric by a country mile at -4.3 and Brooks Koepka is up next at -3.3. Koepka’s 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is third-best in the field behind Grace and DJ, and his 27.3 Recent PPR is second to only Day. Koepka finished sixth here last year in his only start and his 67.7 Course Adjusted Round Score is tied with two others for tops in the field.
Bonus
Because it rhymes with Honus.
Pro Trends: 13, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka
You thought it was going to be Jason Day, right? Me too. Both Johnson and Koepka share the highly-desirable “Averaging At Least 80 Points Per Game the Past Month” Pro Trend, which has traditionally yielded a +2.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. In a small sample, golfers with 10 or more Pro Trends playing at Firestone have accounted for a +6.95 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
