FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
For this special PGA Championship week, we are putting out three separate Data Dives, one for each salary tier. Today, we will focus on players priced $6,900 and lower (The Value Plays). Part 2 will focus on the golfers priced between $7,000 and $8,900. Part 3 on Wednesday will look at golfers priced $9,000 and higher.
Long-Term Metrics
This is the 100th year the PGA Championship will be played. James Barnes won the first event in 1916. Walter Hagen won his first of five in 1921. Jack Nicklaus won his first of five in 1963. Phil Mickelson won the last PGA Championship played here at Baltusrol in 1995.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.9, Kevin Na
Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is a very effective way to find value golfers. LT Adj Rd Score is, in layman’s terms, a measure of how good a golfer is, so when you find inexpensive players with excellent LT Adj Rd Scores, you’ve found value.
Na’s 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score is the best of the value tier and tied for seventh in the field.
Na also shows up well in LT Putts Per Round (PPR) at 28.4 and LT Scrambling (SC) at 61.1 percent, in which he is fifth and 15th overall. That’s fifth and 15th in the entire field to be clear.
Value plays with similar LT Adj Rd Scores have traditionally contributed a +4.55 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Na has made the cut in all three majors this year and finished seventh at the U.S. Open. He’s an extremely economically sharp play this week.
Greens In Regulation: 72.8%, Nicolas Colsaerts
Colsaerts is well-known to fans of the European Tour but may not be as familiar to fans of the PGA Tour.
Colsaerts’ 72.8 percent LT Greens In Regulation (GIR) is the best in the value tier and third overall. He ranks 11th overall in LT Driving Distance (DD) at 305.7 yards and is tied for fourth in Long-Term Eagle average, with 0.5 per tournament. He has a 71 LT Adj Rd Score.
His best finish in a major is seventh at the 2012 U.S. Open, and he finished 10th at the 2013 U.S. Open. Colsaerts was cut in 2012 and 2013 at the PGA Championship. He finished 46th at The Open Championship two weeks ago.
Colsaerts is a potentially low-owned GPP play with large upside this week.
Driving Distance: 310.2 yds, Tony Finau
Finau has the fourth-best LT DD in the field at 310.2 yards, behind only Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and J.B. Holmes.
His 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 15th and his 29.2 LT PPR ranks 13th overall.
Finau missed the cut at the U.S. Open and finished 18th at The Open Championship this year.
Value bombers with comparable LT metrics have previously produced a +7.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKins with 60.9 percent Consistency.
Driving Accuracy: 70.7%, David Toms and Jason Bohn
Toms and Bohn share identical 70.7 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA), tied for third overall this week.
Bohn has a 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score and 28.6 LT PPR, tied for 15th and seventh overall. He finished T37 at the PGA Championship last season and T34 here at Baltursol in 1995.
Golfers with similar LT metrics to Bohn and Toms have historically yielded a +2.01 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Toms won the 2001 PGA Championship and has four top-10 finishes in the event, including a T10 here at Baltursol in 1995. He makes for an intriguing GPP flyer in an extreme stars and scrubs approach.
Scrambling: 63.2%, Younghan Song
Song is top in the value tier and tied for fourth overall with his 63.2 percent LT SC, behind only Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Steve Stricker.
Song’s LT GIR of 65.1 percent is tied with Spieth’s and his 28.3 LT PPR is tied for fourth overall. He has a 70.6 LT Adj Rd Score and much-improved 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score, which is tied for 16th.
Golfers with comparable LT metrics and Recent Adj Rd Scores have generally delivered a +2.52 on DraftKings.
Song’s 18.7 Recent Adjusted Birdie average is second in the entire field.
Younghan finished 21st at the WGC-Bridestone Invitational earlier this month. Singing this redemption Song gives you the freedom to spend big on studs.
Recent Form
Jason Day finished at 20 under par to win the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits last year. Jordan Spieth was the runner-up at 17 under par. Branden Grace, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka and Anirban Lahiri rounded out the top finishers.
Adjusted Round Score: 67.6, Francesco Molinari
Molinari’s 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is best among the value tier and eighth overall this week. He has a second- and eighth-place finish included in his last three starts and he finished 36th at The Open Championship two weeks ago.
Molinari’s Recent Birdie average of 15 per tournament is tied for eighth overall, his Recent DA of 67.9 is tied for ninth, and his 71.3 percent Recent GIR is tied for 11th.
Players in comparable recent form have customarily manufactured a +4.50 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 61.4 percent Consistency.
Molinari has made seven straight cuts at the PGA Championship, with a T10 finish in 2009. Playing him in this event with a $6,100 salary is a financially prudent decision.
Greens In Regulation: 79.6%, Rocco Mediate
Mediate is most famous for his epic 2008 Monday Playoff at the U.S. Open with Tiger Woods. Woods won the event, but Mediate won the hearts of many golf fans.
Mediate’s 79.6 percent Recent GIR is not only the best in the value tier but also second in the field behind only Henrik Stenson’s mark. Mediate’s 74.4 percent Recent DA is fourth overall.
His 72.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is the fourth-worst in the field and his 73.7 LT Adj Rd Score is third-worst.
Mediate won the Senior PGA Championship earlier this year and finished 23rd at the Barracuda Championship (a PGA Tour Event) earlier this month.
Although it would be fun to cheer for Mediate this weekend, playing him in your DraftKings lineup would be extremely risky. He has withdrawn from two of the last three PGA Championships in which he has played.
Scrambling: 69%, Kyle Reifers
Reifers’ 69 percent Recent SC mark is top among the value plays and second overall.
His 67.6 Recent GIR is tied for 13th in the field, and he has a 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score, which is a nice improvement over his 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score.
He has three top-10 finishes and two missed cuts in his last eight starts.
This is Reifers’ first appearance in a major championship. Value plays with similar recent metrics have traditionally generated a +3.68 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Adjusted Birdie Average Per Tournament: 19.7, Aaron Baddeley
Baddeley leads the entire field this week with his 19.7 Recent Adjusted Birdie Average — a massive average over a three-count sample.
Baddeley’s Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.3 is 14th in the field. His 77.1 percent Recent GIR is third and his 301.4 Recent DD is 20th.
Value plays with comparable Recent Adj Rd Sores and Birdie Averages have delivered a gigantic +10.33 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 62.9 percent Consistency.
He won the Barbasol Championship two weeks ago and had two top-20 finishes in the two events prior to that.
If you believe in recent form, it’s difficult to find a more enticing value play this week.
Odds to Win: 0.9%, Kevin Chappell
Chappell’s 0.9 percent Odds to Win are the best among the value plays this week.
Chappel’s 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th in the field, and his 69 Recent Adj Rd Score is even better.
He missed the cut at the U.S. Open this year and finished 53rd at The Open Championship. He finished T13 at the 2014 PGA Championship and T43 last year.
Previous value plays with similar Odds to Win have historically had a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Note: Our Player Models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. Vegas Odds to Win for Kevin Chappell and other golfers may change after this article is published.
Bonus
Because there is no such thing as too much value.
Pro Trends: 9, Francesco Molinari
We previously extolled the virtues of Molinari in this article. Were you not entertained by them?
Molinari’s most profitable Pro Trend is “Long-Term Birdie Score At Least 65,” which has produced a +2.12 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Previous value plays with more than five but fewer than 10 Pro Trends have delivered a +4.65 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 57.3 percent Consistency.
Don’t be afraid to fill your plate with some pasta this week.
