FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
For this special Open Championship week, we are putting out three separate Data Dives, one for each salary tier. Part 1 focuses on players $6,900 and lower (the ‘value plays’). Part 2 focuses on the golfers priced between $7,000 and $8,900. Part 3 on Wednesday will look at golfers priced $9,000 and higher.
Long-Term Metrics
Four of the last eight winners of the Wanamaker Trophy can be found in the Mid-Priced Tier: Jason Dufner (2013), Keegan Bradley (2011), Martin Kaymer (2010) and Padraig Harrington (2008). Furthermore, Zach Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Graeme McDowell, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, and Charl Schwartzel are all former Major Champions in this pricing tier.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.6, Matt Kuchar
Kuchar’s 68.6 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) just edges out Hideki Matsuyama’s 68.7 in the mid-priced tier and is tied with Bubba Watson’s mark for fourth best overall.
Kuchar’s 14.9 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament is tied for ninth and his 61.5 percent LT Scrambling (SC) is 12th.
Kuchar has made the cut at all three majors this season, with a 24th-place finish at the Masters. He has finished inside the top 10 in seven of 10 starts since the Masters. He finished T7 at last year’s PGA Championship.
Priced at only $8,600, it’s reasonable to project Kuchar as the highest-owned player in DraftKing’s Millionaire Maker tournament this week, so he could be worth fading in that format. However, I’m not sure there’s a safer cash-game play available.
Greens in Regulation: 74.2%, Rafael Cabrera-Bello
We can’t talk about LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) without mentioning Cabrera-Bello. Rafa’s 74.2 percent is not only tops in the mid-priced tier, but it’s also second overall, behind Henrik Stenson’s mark.
Rafa’s 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is 15th overall, but his 62.9 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA) and 55.3 percent LT SC are both middle of the road in this field.
Cabrera-Bello has made the cut at all three majors this season, with a 17th-place finish at the Masters. He finished T29 at the PGA Championship in 2013.
Mid-priced golfers with similar LT GIR and Adj Rd Scores have historically generated a +1.61 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 58.5 percent Consistency.
Driving Accuracy: 72.0%, Colt Knost
Former U.S. Amateur Champion Colt Knost not only has the best LT DA in the mid-priced tier, but he also tops the field.
Knost’s 28.9 LT Putts Per Round (PPR) ranks inside the top 10, and he has a 70 LT Adj Rd Score, tied for 17th.
Knost missed the cut at The Open Championship two weeks ago and the Canadian Open last week. Prior to that he had two third-place finishes and a fourth-place finish in a stretch of five starts.
You could capitalize on some negative recency bias in tournaments if you want to lean on his LT DA, but his recent form makes him too risky for cash games.
Scrambling: 66.6%, Steve Stricker
Stricker is on a bit of a recent roll: He finished second at the St. Jude Classic, 21st at the Scottish Open, and fourth at The Open Championship.
His 66.6 percent LT SC may be ominous to believers of the antichrist, but it’s the best mark in the entire field this week.
Stricker’s 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eleventh, and his LT DA of 65.3 percent is 21st overall. His 77.2 percent Recent SC leads the field by a wide margin.
He did not play in the PGA Championship here at Baltusrol in 1995, but he does have four top-10 finishes in the event, including a second-place finish back in 1998.
Mid-priced golfers with comparable LT metrics have historically produced a +3.47 Plus/Minus with 58.2 percent Consistency.
Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament: 15.1, Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama has a bunch of impressive LT metrics, including LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament, best of the mid-priced tier and 7th overall. His 68.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth in the field.
His recent metrics, though, tell a different story. The birdie average has plummeted all the way from 15.1 to 5.3 and his Recent Adj Rd Score has climbed up to 71.2.
Hideki’s LT GIR percentage of 66.9 has dropped to 50.5 recently, while his 57.9 percent LT SC mark has dropped to 47.5.
He finished seventh at the Masters earlier this year, but missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship more recently.
He makes for an extremely fascinating tournament play for those making multiple lineups or in possession of contraband a cast-iron stomach.
Recent Metrics
Branden Grace finished third at the PGA Championship last season. Anirban Lahiri finished T5. Brandt Snedeker and Martin Kaymer finished T12th. All of them are can be found in the mid-priced tier.
Adjusted Round Score: 67.2, Zach Johnson
Johnson’s 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is best among the mid-priced golfers and third in the field. His 27.4 Recent PPR ranks fourth, and his 67.2 percent Recent SC is sixth.
Mid-priced golfers with comparable Recent Adj Rd Scores and Scrambling percentages have traditionally returned a +3.95 Plus/Minus.
Zach tends to show up in major championships too. Although he missed the cut at the Masters earlier this season, he finished eighth at the U.S. Open and 12th at The Open Championship.
He finished T17 at Baltusrol in 1995 and has three top-10 finishes in the PGA Championship.
Johnson is entering the tournament in excellent recent form and has already won two major championships in his career. You could invest in golfers who are a lot worse this week.
Greens in Regulation: 70.4%, Keegan Bradley
It’s actually Cabrera-Bello who leads the mid-priced golfers in Recent GIR. Bradley who holds the next-best mark in this tier and is 15th overall.
Bradley’s Recent Adj Rd Score of 69.2 is 23rd in the field. He finished 18th at The Open Championship two weeks ago but missed the cut at the U.S. Open. He finished 52nd at the Masters earlier this year.
Bradley won the PGA Championship in 2011 and followed that up with a T3 in 2012.
His results have been all over the place this season, but he’s the type of low-owned, high-variance player you’ll need if you want to win a tournament like the Milly Maker.
Scrambling: 65.7%, Bill Haas
Stricker leads the entire field and mid-priced tier in Recent SC, and he’s followed by the Johnson. Third in the mid-priced tier is Bill Haas with a 65.7 Recent SC percentage, good enough for eighth in the field.
Haas’ 68 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 11th. He has a third- and ninth-place finish included in his last three starts.
Hass has made the cut at all three majors this year, with an impressive ninth place finish at The Open Championship. He has made the cut in the last five PGA Championships.
Golfers in this price range with comparable Recent SC percentages and Recent Adj Rd Scores have customarily manufactured a +4.67 Plus/Minus with 67.6 percent Consistency.
Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament: 17.3, Charl Schwartzel
Schwartzel’s 17.3 Recent Birdie Average is fourth overall and best among the mid-priced golfers. His 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 10th. He has finished 25th or better in six straight tournaments.
His 67 percent Recent GIR is tied for 25th and his Recent Driving Distance (DD) of 300 is tied for 26th.
Schwartzel finished T37 in the PGA Championship last year. He has made seven of 10 cuts at the event but has zero top-10 finishes.
Schwartzel can rack up birdies with the best of them, which makes him a solid play when considering DraftKings scoring.
Odds To Win: 2.2%, Patrick Reed
Kuchar and Reed share current Odds to Win of 2.2 percent, best among the mid-priced tier and the 11th best of the tournament.
Reed is playing well, with a 10th-place finish in the Scottish Open and a 12th at The Open Championship in his last two starts.
He missed the cut at the U.S. Open but finished 49th at the Masters.
Reed’s 69 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth in the field and his LT SC of 61.8 percent is tied for ninth.
Golfers in this price range with similar Odds to Win have historically produced a +4.92 Plus/Minus with 61.7 percent Consistency.
Note: Our Player Models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. Vegas Odds to Win for Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, and other golfers may change after this article is published.
Bonus
It’s like extra innings in baseball, but not nearly as long.
Pro Trends: 9, Matt Kuchar
Kuchar is painfully boring but oh so safe.
His most profitable Pro Trend this week is “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning,” which has traditionally provided a +3.56 Plus/Minus.
Mid-priced golfers with similar Odds to Win and more than five but fewer than 10 Pro Trends have had a slightly negative Plus/Minus. They have, however, met or exceeded salary-based expectations a healthy 54.9 percent on the time.
