FantasyLabs is a data company. With our Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
In the past 15 years, two left-handers have won at TPC River Highlands a total of four times. Phil Mickelson went back-to-back in 2001 and 2002. And this guy has won twice in the past six years…
Adjusted Round Score: 68.6, Bubba Watson
Watson leads the field with a 68.6 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) this week.
Watson also ranks first in LT Driving Distance (DD) with a 312.4-yard average and fourth in LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) at 69.8 percent.
Bubba loves TPC River Highlands: His 68.7 Course Adj Rd Score is the best in the field among players who have made more than one start at the course. He has two wins, as well as a second- and fourth-place finish here in the last six years.
Bubba is the most expensive player in the field and will be highly owned. He’s a fine tournament play, but also a fade consideration based on projected ownership.
Greens In Regulation: 71.6%, Thomas Aiken
Aiken has the best LT GIR in the field this week and his 71.4 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA) is second overall.
His 70.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 16th, and his Recent Adj Rd Score has improved to 69.9. Aiken’s 18.3 Recent Adjusted Birdie Average (Adj Bird Avg) is the second-highest this week.
Players with similar LT metrics and Recent Adj Rd Scores have traditionally provided a modest +0.17 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Aiken has five missed cuts in his last nine starts. He is a cheap tournament option in a stars-and-scrubs strategy.
Driving Distance: 311.8, Luke List
We’ve already established that Bubba has the best LT DD in the field, but List is only a half yard behind him at 311.8 yards.
List ranks 12th overall in LT GIR and is tied for 36th overall in LT SC — he’s not just a one-trick pony.
His 71.0 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for the 13th-worst score in the field, but his 69.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is much improved.
In his last two starts, List finished 14th at the Canadian Open and 20th at the Barbasol Championship. He was cut in five of six starts prior to that. List is a boom-or-bust tournament option.
Scrambling: 64.2%, Jerry Kelly
Kelly’s 64.2 LT SC percentage is top of the field this week and his LT DA of 70.3 percent is good enough for sixth.
His 63.1 percent LT GIR, however, is the 26th-worst mark in the field, and his 275.6 LT DD is the 10th-shortest average distance.
Kelly has played TPC River Highlands many times. He missed the cut here last year, but prior to that had four straight years of finishing no worse than 38th.
Golfers with comparable LT metrics have generally produced a +1.58 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 56.5 percent Consistency.
Adjusted Birdie Average Per Tournament: 15.3, Jon Rahm
Rahm’s 15.3 LT Adj Bird Avg is actually one tenth of a point behind Bubba’s 15.4, but no less impressive.
The young Spaniard out of Arizona State has been very notable in his brief professional career, with a second- and third-place finish in four starts since the U.S. Open. His 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score is third-best in the field.
Rahm’s 28.6 LT Putts Per Round (PPR) is tied for eighth-best, his 300.8 LT DD ranks 17th, and his 60 percent LT SC is 20th. His -5.9 Par Five Average Adjusted Strokes is the best score in the field.
He actually played in this event as an amateur last year, making the cut and finishing 64th. More recently, he finished second in a very strong field at the Canadian Open.
Rahm is an elite tournament option.
Recent Metrics
Ken Duke won here in 2013, so don’t be surprised to see some crazy names on the leaderboard on Sunday.
Adjusted Round Score: 66.7, Brooks Koepka
Koepka surprised some people (named Kelly McCann) by not just completing all four rounds of play at the PGA Championship, but finishing in fourth place. This was Koepka’s first tournament since pulling out of the WGC-Bridgestone after 14 holes and withdrawing from The Open Championship.
Koepka’s 66.7 Recent Adj Rd Score is the best in the field, while his 76.4 Recent GIR ranks third. His 17.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for sixth.
Koepka has had two second-place finishes with a fourth- and 13th-place finish in his last four completed tournaments. He finished 51st at this event in 2014.
Koepka’s ankle is slightly concerning, considering he played 36 holes on Sunday and will be teeing it up in back-to-back weeks after missing time with an ankle injury. That said, he’s an excellent tournament play.
Greens In Regulation: 80.6%, Lucas Glover
The 80.6 percent LT GIR is a huge number, but it comes from a one-count sample. Glover’s LT GIR, a much more accurate number, is 70.0 percent — still good for third in the field.
Glover’s Recent Adj Bird Avg is 17.0, tied with Koepka for sixth.
Lucas has some shaky history at this course, as evidenced by his 72.4 Course Adj Rd, the seventh-worst score in the field among golfers who have played more than one round at TPC River Highlands.
Golfers with similar Recent and LT GIR percentages have historically accumulated a +1.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 50.6 percent Consistency.
Driving Accuracy: 73.2%, Boo Weekley
Weekley shows up all over the top of the Recent metrics, but be aware that he’s played just one tournament in the past six weeks.
Boo’s 73.2 percent Recent DA ranks first, his 76.4 percent Recent GIR is second, his 70.6 percent Recent SC is fifth, and his 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 11th.
He finished 12th at the St. Jude Classic and 11th at the Barbasol Championship in his last two starts.
Weekley’s Course Adj Rd Score is even worse than Glover’s: His 72.5 mark is the sixth-worst score in the field.
Golfers in comparable recent form have previously manufactured a +9.46 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency. If you’re brave enough to take a tournament shot with Boo, you might just scare your opponents into submission.
Adjusted Birdie Average Per Tournament: 18.7, Ricky Barnes
Barnes has the best Recent Adj Bird Avg in the field at 18.7, an impressive number over a three-tournament sample.
Barnes’ 71.5 percent Recent GIR is eighth-best, his 67.2 percent Recent SC is 15th, and his 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th.
However, some of his long-term metrics are a far cry from those numbers. For example, his LT GIR is 63.6 percent, his LT SC is 58.4 percent, and his LT Adj Rd Score is 70.6. Also, his LT Adj Bird Avg is 11.9, nearly seven birdies short of his recent number.
It’s worth noting that players priced from $6,000 to $7,400 on DraftKings with comparable Recent Adj Bird Averages have crushed value to the tune of a +7.35 Plus/Minus with 58.4 Consistency.
Barnes has played this course a bunch, missing the cut last year and finishing as high as fifth in 2010. He’s a volatile tournament play who could just as easily finish in the top 10 as he could miss the cut.
Odds To Win: 5.9%, Branden Grace
Not surprisingly, it’s Bubba whose 6.7 percent Odds to Win are the highest in the field.
But don’t forget about Grace, who’s currently tied with Koepka with 5.9 percent Odds to Win, the second-best mark in the field.
Grace made a valiant Sunday run at the PGA Championship last week, ultimately falling short on the last few holes and finishing fourth. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters and has a win and five top-10 finishes since then.
His 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh in the field, while his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fourth. Grace’s 14.3 LT Adj Bird Avg is the sixth-highest.
Golfers with comparable salaries, LT Adj Rd Scores, and Odds to Win have not returned value historically, averaging a -4.73 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Bonus
Because typing Bubba is fun.
Pro Trends: 9, Bubba Watson and Francesco Molinari
It’s surprising to have nobody in the field with double-digit Pro Trends this week, but not surprising to see Bubba at the top.
Other than “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning,” Bubba’s most profitable Pro Trend this week is “Long-Term Driving Distance Score At Least 75,” traditionally good for a +2.27 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Molinari, whose 67.7 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for second-best in the field, also sneaks into a tie for the most Pro Trends.
Other than the previously-mentioned “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning” trend, Molinari’s most profitable Pro Trend is “Long Term Birdie Score At Least 65,” good for a +2.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
There’s a $3,400 salary difference between Bubba and Molinari, and players previously priced comparably to Molinari with nine Pro Trends have provided a +1.24 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 57.1 percent Consistency.
