FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
The PGA Tour returns to Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD, for the Quicken Loans National. Troy Merritt won the event last year. Justin Rose won here in both 2014 and 2010.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.8, Jim Furyk
Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is our exclusive metric that measures a golfer’s average adjusted strokes per round over the past 75 weeks. Of all the golfers in the field, Furyk has been the best since last spring, according to Adj Rd Score. Per our Trends tool, golfers in the top quintile of LT Adj Rd Score have historically produced a +1.92 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Furyk fired a final-round 66 at the U.S. Open to finish tied for second last week, his best finish since September of 2015. Furyk has the third-highest implied odds to win the tournament and as a result has the third-highest salary in the field. Jon Rahm, who makes his professional debut this week, also has a 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score, although on a much smaller sample.
Driving Distance (yds): 311.8, Luke List
List hits the ball extremely far, leading the field with a massive Long-Term Driving Distance (LTDD). That will suit him well on the extremely long Par 4s at Congressional. Golfers with comparable LTDDs and salaries historically have a -0.32 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but List doesn’t just drop bombs like the Bible drops Psalms. His 68.3 percent Long-Term Greens in Regulation is also 10th-best in this week’s field.
Long-Term Adj Rd Score, GIR, Driving Distance, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Birdies Per Tournament: 20, Jordan Niebrugge
Niebrugge isn’t ‘just’ ranked first in birdies per tournament. He also leads the field in LT GIR, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Bogey Average, and Par 3, 4, and 5 Performance. So it’s time to answer the question, “Who the hell is Jordan Niebrugge?” If you’re not a complete golf degenerate, you probably don’t remember his sixth-place finish in last year’s Open Championship at St. Andrews. Of course, he has played in only two tournaments in the last 75 weeks. In his career, he has a missed cut at the 2015 Masters, a 27th-place finish at the John Deere Classic, and a 40th-place finish at the Australian Open.
Par 5 Performance: -5.5, Byeong-Hun An
After Niebrugge, Byeong-Hun is tied with Justin Thomas for second in Par 5 Performance, and since An is cheaper and posts better scores than Thomas in the Par 3 & Par 4 metrics he’s the preferable option. An’s 70.3 percent LT GIR is third in the field and his LT Adj Rd Score of 69.5 is tied for sixth. Golfers in An’s relative price range with comparable Par 5 scores have historically provided a +2.11 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Consistency (%): 85, Charles Howell III
Over the last year, the aforementioned Rahm has managed a Consistency of 100 percent — in only three tournaments. Out of golfers who have played in more than three tournaments, CH3 has the top mark in the metric, and he has competed in 28 tournaments within the last 12 months. Howell missed two straight cuts in May but has made the cut in his last three starts and in eight of his last 10 overall. Howell has mixed results at this event, as his 71.3 Course Adj Rd Score indicates.
Recent Metrics
Bryan Mears may be hungover, but even in his post-Major fog he has identified Recent GIR as a key metric for this week at Congressional.
Greens in Regulation (%): 73.3, Chez Reavie
Reavie’s Recent GIR mark is two points higher than his nearest competitor this week and his 71.4 percent Recent Driving Accuracy is tied for third in the field. He’s a safe bet to hit a bunch of fairways and greens this week. Golfers in Reavie’s relative price range with comparable Recent GIR percentages have historically accrued a +2.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Reavie has solid recent course history at Congressional too, with 21st- and 15th-place finishes in his last two starts here.
Scrambling (%): 70.4, Ben Crane
Crane is the only player in the field with a Recent Scrambling percentage above 70. Crane’s 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is 10th in the field but his 61.1 percent Recent GIR is on the concerning end of the spectrum. Crane has missed two of his last three cuts at this event but has made three straight cuts on Tour. The last six winners of this event had an average rank of 18th in scrambling.
Birdies Per Tournament: 20, Robert Garrigus
Garrigus not only leads this week’s field in Recent Birdies, but he also has the eighth-best Recent Adj Rd Score (68.9). Additionally, he’s one of six golfers with a Recent GIR above 70 percent. Garrigus also has some really nice course history with a third-, fourth-, and 11th-place finish here since 2011. His 68.7 Course Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth at Congressional. Golfers with comparable salaries and recent birdie averages historically have a +2.59 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Par 4 Performance: -2, Roberto Castro
If you want to win at Congressional, you’ll need to play the Par 4s well. The past three winners here had an average season-ending rank of 7.3 in Par 4 Scoring Average. Golfers in Castro’s price range with comparable Par 4 averages have produced a +2.66 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Castro’s Par 4 rank is the best in the field this week and he has played this course well, including a runner-up finish in 2013. He finished second at the Wells Fargo in May and 11th at the Memorial earlier this month.
Upside (%): 100, Adam Hadwin
Due to the small sample size of tournaments, there are a few golfers with recent Upside scores of 100 percent, but Hadwin stands out for a number of reasons. His 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth in the field and his 17.5 Recent Birdie Average is tied for second. Hadwin finished 39th in his only start here and is coming off a season best 11th-place finish at the Memorial.
Bonus
Because 10 metrics are never enough.
Pro Trends: 9, Ryan Palmer
Palmer is tied with Furyk for the most Pro Trends this week. Palmer has quite a few ‘large Plus/Minus’ Pro Trends this week, including “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning”, historically good for a +4.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Also included in Palmer’s nine Pro Trends is “Long-Term Driving Distance Score At Least 75″, which has traditionally accounted for a +2.75 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
