This week the PGA TOUR heads to Houston as Memorial Park hosts the Houston Open. The course is a par-72 that measures 7,432 yards with Bermuda greens. This is the first time since 1963 that the Houston Open has been held here and the course underwent a redesign in 2019, so we have no course history to speak of.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate; however, these players are great options in any contest type.
Note: My forthcoming analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend following Murphy’s Strokes Gained columns each round, which highlights golfers to buy and fade following each round of play at that week’s PGA TOUR event, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
Core Plays
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,300 DraftKings; $11,700 FanDuel)
Hatton is coming off a 28th-place finish at the ZOZO, where a bad third round cost him a shot at contending. Prior to that, he was one of the hottest players on the PGA TOUR, finishing seventh or better in three of his previous four tournaments, including a win at the BMW PGA Championship over in Europe.
Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks fourth in SG: Ball-Striking, 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in total strokes gained among players in this week’s field. Since we are a week away from the Masters, it’s fair to question players’ motivation in Houston. But Hatton is both a bulldog and a grinder, so I expect him to contend this week at a very fair price.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,600 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel)
Scheffler finally found his game at the ZOZO after struggling for a few weeks after testing positive for COVID-19. He ranks first in this field across his past four rounds in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in SG: Ball-Striking.
Being that Scheffler is young and is playing in his first career Master’s next week, I doubt motivation will be an issue here. The fact that we can save around $2,000 from some of the top guys without sacrificing any upside is very attractive.
There is not a whole lot to like in the mid-range this week on DraftKings, making paying up for multiple studs the optimal cash game strategy. There are five par 5s again this week and Scheffler should carve them up, making a top-25 finish very much in the cards with additional upside beyond that. He is as safe as they come in a field like this.
Cameron Davis ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel)
You could make the case that Davis is about $500 too cheap in this field. He has not missed a cut since the Workday back in early July and has two top 20s and a top 10 in that span.
During this run, Davis has been one of the most well-rounded players on TOUR. In this field over his past 24 rounds he ranks 22nd in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th in SG: Ball-Striking and eighth in SG: Putting. At just $8,100, he provides nice flexibility for any roster build and should make a ton of birdies this week, making him very live for another top-20 finish.
Value Plays
Denny McCarthy ($7,900 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel)
McCarthy is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Bermuda Championship last week at $9,500, so DraftKings thought it would be a good idea to drop him $1,600 for some reason. He is by far the most mis-priced player in this field. Even before last week’s gem,
McCarthy had been playing some incredible golf, posting two top 10s in two of his previous five tournaments. He’s made 21, 22 and 22 birdies respectively in his last three events played and remains one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR. McCarthy has also made 22 of his last 28 cuts, and at this price, he helps us fit pretty much any stud we like at the top of the board. All things considered, he could be the best cash game play on the slate this week.
Erik Van Rooyen ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel)
EVR is another player that seems a bit underpriced for his talent level. He ranks 45th in the world and is coming off three finishes of 27th or better, including a tied-for-23rd finish at the U.S Open.
Over his past 12 rounds, Van Rooyen ranks 10th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in total strokes gained. We know EVR makes a ton of birdies and should be able to capitalize on the five par 5s this week. Being able to capture this much upside at just $7,800 on DraftKings helps immensely in builds where you’re stacking multiple high-priced players.
Sam Burns ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel)
Burns has been hit or miss lately but when he makes the cut, he’s shown some big upside, highlighted by his 13th place finish at the Wyndham and tied for seventh at the Safeway. We know two things about Burns: He can hit the ball a mile and plays better at longer courses, while also putting better on Bermuda greens. Thankfully, this course checks both boxes and at just $7,500 on DraftKings, the value is hard to ignore. It would not have been surprising to see Burns in the $8,000 range, so we can just accept the value and move on to our next roster spot.
Adam Schenk ($7,100 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel)
After giving it some consideration, Schenk is probably more underpriced than McCarthy. His price for the about 11th week in a row is beyond egregious. We’re talking about a man that has not missed a cut in five months.
We’re probably not getting a top 10 out of Schenk but at this price, we’re only looking for him to make the weekend, which he seems to do almost every week. He’s coming off back-to-back top 30s, and it’s very reasonable to expect another one in Houston. We will keep rostering him until DraftKings forces our hand.
Sleeper Play
Beau Hossler ($6,900 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel)
Hossler played well for us last week in Bermuda, finishing 26th at just $6,900. Since the field is slightly stronger this week, his price dropped by $100, giving us another chance to roster a cut-maker at a very reasonable salary. Hossler has made the weekend in six consecutive tournaments and has been putting very well in that span, ranking 10th in this field in SG: Putting over his past 16 rounds.
In 2018, Hossler lost in a playoff at this event to Ian Poulter, albeit at a different course. He does, however, have ties to the state as he played his college golf at the University of Texas. You can do a lot worse if dipping into this range.
Other Targets
Dustin Johnson ($11,500 DraftKings; $12,200 FanDuel)
This is DJ’s first start back after testing positive for COVID-19, so he might be a little rusty and simply using this event as a tuneup before Augusta next week. However, we have seen him dominate fields like this in weeks prior to majors before.
Johnson is the most expensive player in this field, but he could easily run away with this event if properly motivated. With all the value at our disposal this week, I’d be hard-pressed to not mention the No. 1 player in the world. To be clear, this is GPP only.
Pictured above: Scottie Scheffler.
Credit: Harry How/Getty Images.
