This week the PGA TOUR heads to Bermuda as Port Royal Golf Course hosts the Bermuda Championship. The course is a short par 71 that measures 6,842 yards with Bermuda greens. This is normally an alternate event held during the week of the WGC-HSBC Champions, but since COVID-19 rendered that moot, this is the only game in town this week.
The purpose of this article is to highlight the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate; however, these players are great options in any contest type.
Note: My forthcoming analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend following Murphy’s Strokes Gained columns each week, which highlights golfers to buy and fade following each round of play at that week’s PGA TOUR event, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
Core Plays
Henrik Stenson ($9,300 DraftKings; $11,100 FanDuel)
Based on how the pricing shakes out this week, it looks like a more balanced approach will be optimal. We’ll begin with Stenson, who is underpriced for the talent level in this field. He has not looked like the Henrik Stenson of old for the better part of the year, but he should make the cut and is very affordable.
His ball striking has been pretty good of late, as he ranks seventh in this field in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds. It’s been his atrocious putting that has prevented him from contending, but we know that can flip in a heartbeat. If running a balanced lineup, starting your roster with the former major champion makes for a solid foundation.
Cameron Tringale ($9,200 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel)
Tringale is one of the most consistent cut-makers on the PGA TOUR, making the weekend in 17 of his past 21 tournaments. We are not accustomed to seeing him priced in the $9,000 range on DraftKings, but this field is bereft of top-tier talent so our goal is to simply target cut-makers with upside. It’s been Tringale’s flat stick that has carried him lately, ranking second in this field over his previous 12 rounds in SG: Putting.
Only nine golfers have gained more total strokes than Tringale in that same time frame. As we saw from Brendan Todd last year, a hot putter can go a long way towards contending at this event. As for his ball striking, he’s been middle of the road over his last few tourneys. But if taking a more macro approach, he ranks 13th in SG: Approach and 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds. Tringale has big upside this week.
Kristoffer Ventura ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,300 FanDuel)
Ventura looks to be another cash game lock this week, as the young Norwegian has been playing some incredible golf since the middle of summer. He missed the cut at the Shriner’s his last time out, even though he shot a solid 5-under par.
Before that, however, he posted two top 10s over his previous three events. His game has been clicking of late, ranking both seventh in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting over his 12 rounds. It also helps that Ventura played this event last year, finishing 41st.
Aaron Wise ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,700 FanDuel)
Wise has been hit or miss of late, but his ball striking has been there for the most part, ranking 26th in SG: Approach and 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 12 rounds. $8,600 is a pretty good price for a guy who is sitting 35/1 in the betting market.
Wise played this event last season and crushed it, finishing in a tie for third place. The talent is certainly there for the 24-year-old and despite his volatility, there was clearly something about this course that fit him last year. He is a solid bet to make the weekend with nice upside on top of that.
Adam Schenk ($8,100 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel)
I’m running out of nice things to say about Schenk. If you’ve rostered him any time over his last 10 events, you’ve likely turned a nice profit as his price is constantly suppressed for whatever reason. This week is no different as his $8,100 tag on DraftKings is very attractive in this bad field.
Over his last 36 rounds, Schenk sits 14th in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and total strokes gained. He’s as sure a bet as any to make the cut this week and fits on any sort of roster build, making him a cash game lock as far as I’m concerned.
Value Plays
Wesley Bryan ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel)
Bryant has played six tournaments this year, making the cut in five of them and finished tied for 31st or better in four of those five. He’s been incredibly consistent since coming back from injury issues that kept him out since 2018.
Bryan ranks an incredible second in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and 13th in total strokes gained in that span as well. This $7,800 salary does not accurately reflect how well Bryan has been playing, and he makes for one of the best plays on the board in this range. He’s as strong a bet to make the cut as you will find at this price.
Scott Stallings ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel)
Stallings hasn’t been his usual consistent self of late, missing three of his previous four cuts. However, he did play this event last year and finished a strong tied for 18th. His rolling numbers also look pretty solid lately, ranking sixth in this field in SG: Approach and 35th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds.
On the year, Stallings has made the weekend in 16 of his 23 starts and with the strength of the field we have this week, he should be able to bounce back from his recent sub-par stretch to contend in Bermuda.
Sleeper Play
Hank Lebioda ($6,800 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel)
Lebioda made three of his last four cuts and tied for third place at this event last year. He also ranks eighth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds. With much of the $7,000 range on DraftKings this week littered with inconsistent players, dropping down to the upper $6,000 range really doesn’t hurt you anywhere.
Lebioda has flashed some serious upside before and can certainly be played on any roster build this week.
Other Targets
Will Zalatoris ($10,900 DraftKings; $11,800 FanDuel)
Zalatoris has been a monster since coming up from the Korn Ferry Tour, posting finishes of sixth, eighth and fifth in three of his past four events. One of the more ridiculous stats you’ll hear this week, Zalatoris ranks number one in SG: Approach, Off-the-Tee, Ball-Striking and Tee-to-Green in this field across his past 12 rounds. He can easily run away with this tournament if he’s on his game and can certainly be rostered in cash games if you can find enough value.
