The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The British Open has come and gone, but we have an appealing field at the RBC Canadian Open this week. Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Brooks Koepka will all be taking part in the festivities. This looks like a fun week, so let’s get to it!
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Glen Abbey. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 55.60 DraftKings points and a +6.65 Plus/Minus with a 51.7% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Birdies: +14.37
- Recent Driving Distance: +13.83
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +13.55
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +13.39
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +9.70
- Recent Birdies: +8.33
- Course Birdies: +8.09
- Course Driving Distance: +7.12
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +6.10
- Course Greens in Regulation: +5.61
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +4.81
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +4.64
- Long-Term Eagles: +4.39
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +3.69
- Course Missed Cuts: +3.17
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +3.05
- Recent Missed Cuts: +2.71
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +2.53
- Course Putts Per Round: +2.11
- Recent Scrambling: +2.04
- Course Count: +1.87
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +1.78
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +1.78
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +0.49
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +0.46
Glen Abbey Golf Course checks in as a par-72, 7,253-yard course. This should be a fun tournament considering Glen Abbey is one of the easiest courses on tour. After back-testing the metrics, this week looks relatively straightforward: Target bombers, par-5 scorers, and guys who excel at making birdies. Easy enough.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,700) checks in with the highest odds (12.5%) to win and by far the highest salary. He’s an obvious fit for the course with his 314.4-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), and he leads the field in Long-Term Birdies (LT Birdies) per tournament and par-5 scoring with his -5.8 average adjusted strokes. Of course, starting your roster with DJ on DraftKings will leave you with an average salary of $7,660 to build around, so you’ll need to hit on the value picks if that’s your preferred route.
The PGA Tour’s most handsome man, Brooks Koepka ($10,800) has been solid over the past month, averaging a +9.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency. While his 39th-place finish at the British Open was disappointing, Koepka still owns four top-20 appearances in his seven tournaments this year, including two top-two finishes. Koepka checks plenty of boxes this week with his second-best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) of 68.6, and his 15.9 birdies per tournament mark trails only DJ’s. Missed-cut rate also back-tested well here, and Koepka has missed just 12% of cuts over the past 75 weeks — a mark that trails just DJ’s and Matt Kuchar‘s (10%).
Tommy Fleetwood‘s ($10,500) LT Adj Rd Score (68.8) compares to some of the other top-tier golfers this week, and it’s hard to argue against his 71.3% Long-Term GIR (LT GIR). It’s very difficult to not consider someone whose LT Birdies, missed-cut rate, and average adjusted strokes on par 4s (-0.3) and par 5s (-5.3) all rank within the top seven in the field.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Jamie Lovemark ($7,800) boasts the ninth-best LT Adj Rd Score (69.4) in the field but is priced as the 24th-most expensive golfer. Lovemark has been incredibly consistent over his past 10 tournaments, averaging a +14.46 Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. Overall, he’s missed just two cuts this season, one in January and the other in May at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Keith Mitchell ($7,400) is an excellent fit for Glen Abbey. He can hit the ball a mile (317.4-yard LT DD), and he’s solid at hitting GIR (67.3% over the past 75 weeks). Additionally, Mitchell’s -4.5 average adjusted strokes on par 5s is a top-10 mark in the field.
I’ll likely be headed back to the Harold Varner III ($7,100) well again. He’s now made three straight cuts, along with a sixth- and fifth-place finish in back-to-back events at courses that favored bombers.
If you’re not rostering Stewart Cink ($7,100), you ain’t livin’. His 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is comparable to Lovemark’s, but he’s priced $700 cheaper than him. Cink is in absurd form, averaging a +26.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Cink owns a 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score, and within that span he’s hit 71.8% of GIR, along with averaging -3.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s and -3.0 average adjusted strokes on par 5s. The 45-year-old mustered a 24th-place finish at the British Open, and over his past four tournaments he’s posted four top-25 finishes, including a second and fourth place.
The Bump and Run
Tony Finau ($9,800) may end up being one of the highest-owned golfers on the slate, and it’s certainly deserved. Finau is having a tremendous season, with three top-10 finishes in majors this season after posting a ninth-place finish at the British Open, fifth at the U.S. Open, and 10th at the Masters. Glen Abbey will be mere child’s play for him; he finished fifth last season. Finau possesses an excellent 312.8-yard LT DD while hitting 68.7% of GIR, and his -5.3 average adjusted strokes on par 5s trails only the marks of DJ and Steve Stricker.
Speaking of Stricker ($8,800)… guess whose -1.6 average adjusted strokes on par 4s ranks second in the field? Correct. Stricker. And, as I mentioned above, so does his average adjusted strokes on par 5s. With his 12% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks, Stricker is as steady as it comes.
Charley Hoffman ($8,700) has fared well at Glen Abbey: He was runner-up last season, and in his past four appearances he hasn’t finished any worse than 28th. Hoffman is in excellent form with four top-20 finishes in his past four tournaments. Overall, his recent form is among the best in the field: His 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is fourth best.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,700) has to be close to a victory soon. The 19-year-old already has four top-eight finishes this season. Over the past 75 weeks, he’s sporting a 310.9-yard LT DD while hitting an impressive amount of GIR (71.9%) and fairways (67.7%). Niemann’s -1.8 average adjusted strokes on par 4s is a field best, so he should be able to take advantage of the par 4s here.
Further down the price range, Joel Dahmen ($7,400) hasn’t finished worse than 23rd in July and has two top-five finishes to his name within that time frame. His 39% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks shows he can be a volatile option, but he’s in great form right now with his 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score. He’s smashed of late, hitting 75.5% of GIR, while gaining strokes in all facets of the game, evidenced by his -1.7 average adjusted strokes on par 3s, -2.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s, and -6.8 average adjusted strokes on par 5s.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Tony Finau
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
