The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA Tour is off to Maryland for the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac. This tournament will feature a relatively weak field: Four of the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will be competing, along with just eight of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Potomac. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 44.71 DraftKings points and a -6.41 Plus/Minus with a 45.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +9.38
- Recent Tournament Count: +8.65
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +6.49
- Recent Eagles: +6.20
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +6.08
- Recent Birdies: +5.80
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +3.46
- Recent Missed Cuts: 3.09
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.65
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.59
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +1.54
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +0.64
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.64
- Long-Term Eagles: +0.57
TPC Potomac is a 7,107-yard, par-70 course: With golfers averaging a -6.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus at Potomac last season, it played as one of the tougher courses on the year. Per PGA TOUR Media, Potomac was the fourth-hardest course during the 2016-2017 PGA season. Only Quail Hollow (PGA Championship), Augusta National (The Masters), and Royal Birkdale (Open Championship) averaged higher scores last year. One aspect that stands out is the importance of accuracy off the tee, while not a single driving distance metric back-tested well. Par-4 scoring will also be crucial, as golfers will be tested on six of the 12 par 4s that reach at least 450 yards in length. Overall, targeting ball-strikers, accuracy, and golfers who can capitalize on par 4s and par 5s should be a solid approach at this challenging course.
The Studs
Rickie Fowler leads the field with massive 13.3% odds to win. Fowler finished third at Potomac last year, and he’s been playing better of late, finishing in the top 15 in three of his past six tournaments, including two top-10 results. Fowler can hit fairways, which he’s done well of late, evidenced by his 71.4% Recent Driving Accuracy (DA), and he can hit GIR with the best of them. He’s also sporting a field-best 68.2 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), and his -0.5 average adjusted strokes on par 4s and -5.0 average adjusted strokes on par 5s are top-five marks in the field. The primary knock on Fowler is his high price tag along with his struggle to win tournaments. He has won just four times in his career, and when he’s had at least 10% odds to win, he’s rarely hit salary-based expectations with his inflated cost:
Marc Leishman ($11,200) fared well here last season with a fifth-place finish. He struggled last week with an opening-round 74 but rebounded with a 67 on the second day. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play well here considering he’s one of the best ball-strikers in the field and owns a solid 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score. Leishman has also done a great job at finding the fairway over his past four tournaments (73.7% Recent DA). He may come low owned after burning some people last week.
Tiger Woods ($11,000) checks in with the second-highest odds to win (7.7%). Outside of his struggles at the U.S. Open, Tiger’s metrics look solid, as he’s been able to gain strokes on both par 4s and par 5s while being accurate off the tee:
Further, his long-term driving accuracy woes may be muted this week since this isn’t a course he’ll need to constantly unleash the driver.
Francesco Molinari ($10,600) and Kyle Stanley ($10,200) have comparable metrics over the past 75 weeks:
Both golfers are good fits here considering the overall balance to their game. Stanley won this tournament last year, so he’s no stranger to the difficulty of this track. Molinari is in great recent form: He mustered a solid 25th-place finish at the U.S. Open and before that finished second in the Italian Open and first in the BMW PGA Championship on the Euro Tour.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Adam Hadwin ($7,300) owns the eighth-best LT Adj Rd Score (69.5), but he’s priced as the No. 40 golfer. Hadwin is relatively accurate off the tee (64.4% LT DA), but he’s been exceptionally accurate of late, hitting 74.3% of fairways over his past four tournaments. His recent form in other metrics look worse than they actually are with the U.S. Open skewing his numbers. At the very least, Hadwin is at least a solid cut-maker: His 18% missed-cut rate is the fifth-best mark in the field.
Andrew Putnam ($7,900) is one of two golfers in the field to gain strokes on par 3s, par 4s, and par 5s over the past 75 weeks. Within that same time frame, he’s hit 70% of GIR and averaged a stellar 13.8 birdies per tournament. Putnam’s recent form is even better with his 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, hitting 78.7% of GIR and 72.6% of fairways.
Ryan Armour ($7,500) has also been playing well of late with four straight made cuts and a 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Score. Over the past six weeks, he’s hit 71.9% of GIR and an absurd 78.1% of fairways.
Brian Gay ($7,400) can be volatile, as evidenced by his 41% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks, but he is sporting an excellent 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score thanks to his four straight made cuts:
During this time frame, Gay is crushing in driving accuracy (78.1% of fairways) and hitting a decent amount of GIR (66%). Another concern with Gay is he’s struggled on par 4s, averaging +1.5 average adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks and +2.5 average adjusted strokes in his past four tournaments.
The Bump and Run
Beau Hossler ($9,300) has been outstanding over his past 10 starts:
Hossler is coming off a second-place finish at the Travelers Championship, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the Valspar Championship back in March. Over the past six weeks, he boasts an excellent 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score, and within the same time frame he’s hitting 68.8% of GIR and 69.6% of fairways. Hossler is also averaging -2.3 average adjusted strokes on par 4s and -5.0 average adjusted strokes on par 5s over his past four tournaments.
Charles Howell III ($8,900) was the runner-up at this tournament last season. He’s been a DFS favorite with his tremendous cut-making ability (10% missed-cut rate over the past 75 weeks). Over Howell’s past 10 starts, he’s averaging a +13.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 80% Consistency. His last missed cut was at the Honda Classic, where I think everyone missed the cut.
Gary Woodland ($8,100) is an intriguing mid-range play. He fell off a cliff after winning the Phoenix Open, but he’s coming off two made cuts, with one of them being the U.S. Open. Over his past two tournaments, Woodland has hit 76.8% of fairways and 66.7% of GIR. If he can keep the ball in the fairway and continue to hit GIR (68.3% LT GIR), I think he could be serviceable here.
J.B. Holmes ($10,000) has the tendency to be somewhat of a roller coaster DFS play:
His 63.8% LT GIR and 54.1% LT DA marks leave much to be desired, but he’s crushing over his past four tournaments, hitting 70.5% of GIR and 65.6% of fairways. Additionally, his average adjusted strokes on par 4s (-3.0) and par 5s (-6.5) are top-two marks in the field. It’s a little worrisome to roster him at his peak salary for the year, but Holmes should suffice if you want to continue riding his hot streak.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Francesco Molinari
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
