The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
We’re just one week away from the British Open, but before that we have the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. With a major on the horizon, we have another weak field: This tournament will feature seven of the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings, including defending champion Bryson DeChambeau.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Deere Run. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 55.29 DraftKings points and a +6.81 Plus/Minus with a 50.8% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +10.24
- Long-Term Birdies: +9.85
- Course Driving Distance: +7.26
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +5.14
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +4.69
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +3.51
- Long-Term Eagles: +3.47
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +3.40
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +3.20
- Course Greens in Regulation: +2.93
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.84
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.78
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.45
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.09
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +2.00
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +1.89
- Course Putts Per Round: +1.82
- Recent Missed Cuts: +1.74
- Recent Driving Distance: +1.54
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.41
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.80
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +0.67
- Recent Scrambling: +0.66
- Recent Tournament Count: +0.57
- Course Count: +0.54
TPC Deere Run is a 7,268-yard, par-71 course. Much like the tournament last week at the Old White TPC, this course will be a short one. There are five par 4s that are 430 yards or shorter, and three of those are shorter than 400 yards. It’s not surprising that par-4 scoring back-tested well here. Unlike last week, in which there were just two par-5s, we get a third one thrown back in. Of all metrics in our models, par-5 scoring produced the highest historical Plus/Minus. Distance doesn’t seem to play an overly-important role here, especially when you look at the golfers who’ve won here in the past, such as Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker. This week seems fairly simple in who to key in on: Target birdie-makers and golfers who excel in par-4 and par-5 scoring.
The Studs
Francesco Molinari ($11,600) has been on fire of late, evidenced by his 66.7 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Recent Adj Rd Score): Over his past four tournaments, Molinari has finished first, 25th, second and first. Along with the highest salary on the slate, Molinari owns a field-best 68.7 Long-Term Adj Rd Score (LT Adj Rd Score). He and Bryson DeChambeau ($11,400) are obvious fits for this course; they are separated by just $200 and tied with 9.1% odds to win.
Zach Johnson ($11,200) has dominated at this course, finishing within the top five six times in his last seven appearances. Johnson has averaged an exceptional 13.4 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks, and while his -3.1 average adjusted strokes on par-5s is a relatively average mark in the field, his 0.3 average adjusted strokes on par-4s is a top-12 mark. Given how this course sets up for Johnson’s skill set and his elite history here, he is a difficult fade.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,400) has posted an excellent 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score over his past five tournaments, and over the past month Niemann is averaging a solid +21.48 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 75% Consistency. It’s quite remarkable what the 19-year-old has done on tour this year. He’s missed four cuts since April, but when he’s made the cut, he hasn’t finished outside the top 17. Oh, and he has four top-eight finishes in his five made cuts. Additionally, Niemann’s -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par-4s is the third-best mark in the field. His 30.1 LT Putts Per Round (PPR) mark isn’t ideal, but it’s hard to not consider someone who is hitting 67% of fairways and 71.5% of Greens in Regulation (GIR) with his distance off the tee (311.3-yard LT Driving Distance) over the past 75 weeks.
The Value Plays
One way to find value is to leverage our Long Term Adjusted Round Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Harold Varner III ($7,400) is projected for just 2-4% ownership, and he’s coming off a fifth-place finish at the Greenbrier Classic, during which he hit 81.9% of GIR. Over his past six tournaments, Varner has hit 69.9% of GIR, but his putter (30.2 PPR) has been the primary reason for his struggles. While Varner’s +2.4 average adjusted strokes on par-4s over the past five weeks isn’t ideal, Deere Run sets up similar to Old White, so this could be a spot where Varner can stay competitive.
Brandon Harkins‘ ($7,300) 13.8 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks is the seventh-best mark in the field. He’s made four straight cuts and excels at par-5 scoring (-4.4 average adjusted strokes). Harkins could continue to make cuts in these weak fields with his hot putter (28.1 PPR over the past six weeks) and birdie-making ability — further building upon his 80% Consistency Rating over the past month.
Andrew Putnam ($7,600) missed the cut last week at Greenbrier, but he didn’t play terribly. He still hit 75% of GIR and 64.3% of fairways, but he averaged a woeful 31 PPR. Putnam’s a solid fit for the course, gaining strokes on par-3s, par-4s, and par-5s, while hitting 70.1% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. His recent form is excellent: He’s averaging just 4.3 bogeys per tournament and -3.0 average adjusted strokes on par-4s. Provided Putnam’s cold putter gets a little warmer, this could be a bounce-back spot for him.
The Bump and Run
Keith Mitchell ($8,000) is a tremendous birdie-maker (14 birdies per tournament over the past 75 weeks); his LT Birdies and -4.5 average adjusted strokes on par-5s are both top-five marks in the field. Mitchell’s 30th-place finish at Greenbrier is nothing to write home about, but he boasts upside on this short course considering he has a 317-yard LT DD, and his 0.6 eagles per tournament over the past 75 weeks is a field best. Mitchell currently boasts 1.4% odds to win with 9-12% projected ownership.
Chesson Hadley ($9,500) checks all the boxes we are looking at this week. He’s second in the field in LT Birdies, fifth in average adjusted strokes on par-4s, 10th in average adjusted strokes on par-5s, and first in average adjusted strokes on par-3s. This seems like a good week to ride or die with Hadley.
Steve Stricker ($9,800) has won this tournament three times and finished fifth last year. He’s averaging an excellent -1.9 average adjusted strokes on par 4s, and his -5.3 average adjusted strokes on par-5s is the best mark in the field. He doesn’t smash the ball off the tee, but he hits greens (71.1% LT GIR) and fairways (74.1% LT DA), and his 12% missed-cut rate is the best in the field over the past 75 weeks.
Austin Cook ($9,300) has been sporadic of late, missing three cuts in his past five tournaments, but he also has a fifth- and sixth-place finish in his two made cuts within that time frame. Cook is coming off an excellent showing at the Old White, where he hit 77.8% of GIR and 83.9% of fairways. He crushed par-4s and 5s there, averaging -7.0 and -3.0 average adjusted strokes. It could be a similar story at Deere Run, as his -1.0 and -4.2 average adjusted strokes on par 4s and 5s both rank inside the top 10 of this field.
Kyle Stanley ($9,700) is at a similar price point to Cook and owns a 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score, which trails only the marks of Molinari and ZJ. Stanley possesses a fairly balanced game that could succeed at Deere Run; he’s done just that in the past with six made cuts over his past seven appearances.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Pictured above: Steve Stricker
Photo credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
