The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
With the U.S. Open just a week away, we head to Memphis, Tennessee, for the St. Jude Classic.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Southwind. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 43.45 DraftKings points and a -4.82 Plus/Minus with a 43.7% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Course Driving Accuracy: +5.29
- Recent Adjusted Bogeys: +4.53
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +4.12
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies: +4.02
- Recent Scrambling: +3.06
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.98
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.72
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +2.26
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +2.25
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.13
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.13
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +2.04
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +1.94
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.71
- Course Driving Distance: +1.61
- Course Birdies: +1.36
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +1.24
- Long-Term Greens in Regulation: +1.09
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +1.07
- Recent Driving Distance: +0.81
- Recent Missed Cuts: +0.76
- Course Count: +0.68
- Long-Term Adjusted Eagles: +0.67
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +0.42
- Recent Tournament Count: +0.20
TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,244-yard course. It’s a rather difficult track, allowing the 24th-fewest average fantasy points per tournament among the 77 courses within our database from the 2017 season. What can make Southwind so difficult is the narrow fairways and the smaller greens, which may explain why all three driving accuracy metrics back-tested well here. Further, avoiding bogeys is just as crucial, along with being able to capitalize on birdie opportunities. With the smaller greens, hitting them in regulation may prove to be troublesome; in that case, looking at decent scramblers may be worthwhile, as Recent and LT Scrambling back-tested favorably. Also, with Course Adjusted Round Score testing positively here, course history is something I’ll weigh more than I do most weeks.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,700) is a former champion here, and he’s historically dominated at Southwind, with three finishes inside the top 11. He’s finished no worse than 24th in his past four appearances. It’s difficult to make a case against DJ, as he checks in with the highest odds to win (13.3%) while sporting a field-best 67.8 LT Adj Rd Score. His only knock is his accuracy off the tee (56.8% LT DA), but he absolutely crushes everywhere else. Fitting in DJ will just come down to your roster construction.
Brooks Koepka ($11,100) has been playing great since returning from his injury (68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score). Over his past four tournaments, he’s averaging just five bogeys per tournament with the help of his 71.4% Recent Scrambling mark. Despite Koepka’s lack of accuracy off the tee (55% LT DA), he’s still played well at Southwind, making all four cuts and boasting an excellent 68.4 Course Adj Rd Score thanks to a second- and third-place finish in Memphis in the past.
Keeping with the trend of golfers who aren’t accurate but crush at Southwind… Phil Mickelson ($10,600) hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Southwind since 2013, and he owns an exceptional 67.9 Course Adj Rd Score. Mickelson’s GIR metrics don’t jump off the page, but he makes up for it with his scrambling (60.3% LT SC) and elite putting (27.9 PPR).
Henrik Stenson ($10,400) is in terrific recent form, owning a 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score. Further, over the past six weeks, Stenson is hitting an absurd amount of greens (80.6%) while nailing 82.2% of fairways. Additionally, his bogey avoidance in both the long-term (7.2 bogeys per tournament) and the short-term (6.5 per tournament) is sublime. Southwind should be another course that sets up well for Stenson since he can capitalize in all facets of the game: He’s gained strokes on par-3s, par-4s, and par-5s over the past 75 weeks.
Daniel Berger ($10,000) has back-to-back first-place finishes at Southwind. Aside from how difficult winning a tournament is on tour, it’s even more impressive that Berger is a repeat champ. Berger’s price has increased $2,400 since his last start at The Players earlier in May, so you’d be rostering Berger at his peak salary, which may not provide too much value. Overall, Berger isn’t in the best recent form with a 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score. While he’s hitting 72.3% of GIR over the past six weeks, he’s struggling to capitalize on his birdie opportunities, averaging just 14 per tournament. Meanwhile, Berger’s averaging 12 bogeys per tournament, and his 48.9% Recent SC over the past six weeks is among the worst marks in the field.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
The value options this week aren’t going to make anyone feel comfortable. Chez Reavie ($7,600) possesses a 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score but comes at a reasonable cost. Overall, he’s struggled of late, missing the cut at Fort Worth and then finishing 30th at The Players. That said, his long-term form matches Southwind quite well with his 72.3% LT DA and 62% LT SC scores. His -0.7 average adjusted strokes on par-4s is the fifth-best mark in the field over the past 75 weeks. Finally, Reavie is no stranger to Southwind, boasting a 68.7 Course Adj Rd Score.
Since 2010, Ben Crane ($7,400) has missed the cut just once at Southwind. He’s also a former champion here, winning in 2014. Since March of this season, Crane has quietly been crushing salary-based expectations at almost no ownership:
While Crane can be volatile (33% long-term missed cut rate), he’s hitting 71.6% of GIR and 74.1% of fairways over the past six weeks. Further, within that same time frame, Crane is averaging an absurd -6.5 average adjusted strokes on par-4s (field-best) and 18 birdies per tournament. At his low salary, he could be worth some exposure since he hasn’t missed a cut since February.
Shane Lowry ($7,600) has never played at Southwind, and while his 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is nothing to write home about, he’s at least making cuts. Lowry hasn’t missed a cut in his past five tournaments; his last MC was in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Further, his 16.5 birdies per tournament within that same time frame is a top-10 mark in this field.
Another potential low-owned play, Joel Dahmen ($7,100) is sporting a 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score. Over the past six weeks, Dahmen has hit 72.2% of greens while avoiding bogey or worse on 65.4% of holes. Overall, he’s averaging just eight bogeys per tournament and a stellar 15 birdies per tournament over that same time span.
The Bump and Run
Over the past 75 weeks, there is one golfer in this field who is tied with DJ for average adjusted strokes (-2.1) on par-4s: Steve Stricker ($8,800). Stricker’s averaging 18 birdies per tournament and hitting 75.9% of GIR over the past six weeks; both are top-four marks in this field.
Byeong-Hun An ($9,200) has been crushing over the past month:
An checks in with 3.4% odds to win this event, and he boasts a respectable 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score over the past 75 weeks. Historically, golfers with comparable LT Adj Rd Scores, Vegas odds, and Recent Adj Rd Scores (68.7) have averaged a +2.69 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($8,400) has been able to avoid bogey or worse on 62.1% of holes over the past six weeks while averaging a stellar 17.5 birdies and 7.8 bogeys per tournament. Aphibarnrat’s 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score is the fifth-best mark in the field. Further, his -1.2 average adjusted strokes on par-4s is tied with Stenson for the second-best mark over the past 75 weeks.
Peter Uihlein ($8,500) got off to a slow start to the season, but he’s been playing better over the past month after his missed cut at the Texas Open:
Uihlein’s 71.1% Recent SC trails only Koepka’s mark. Along with his excellent scrambling, Uihlein is hitting 72.7% of GIR over the past six weeks, which has undoubtedly helped him on his par-4 scoring (-3.3 average adjusted strokes) and par-5 scoring (-8.3 average adjusted strokes).
Tony Finau ($9,300) will be difficult to fade with his 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score and even better 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score. He owns the fifth-best odds to win (4.8%) and has a reasonable salary if you don’t want to pay for the golfers $10,000 or above.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Brooks Koepka
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
