The PGA Tour makes the short trip to Greensboro, North Carolina, for the Wyndham Championship. The Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club is the final chance for golfers to secure a place in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
As a result, the field is largely filled by golfers hovering just above or below No. 125 in the FedEx Cup points list as they try to ensure — or play their way into — a spot in the FedEx Cup playoffs. Last year, both Shawn Stefani and Kyle Stanley parlayed their trip to Sedgefield into a ticket for the the playoffs. Kevin Kisner, who led the PGA Championship for the first three rounds last week, is the only entrant ranked in the top-10 of FedEx Cup points this week. Be sure to check out the new PGA Contests Dashboard, where you can see what type of exposure any DFS player has to Kisner and others in various contests this week. You can also look at stack ownership percentages, salary breakdowns, and duplicate lineups. It’s an amazing tool.
The Course
Sedgefield has historically been a track where players can score: Last year the winner was 21 under par and the cut line was three under par. Since 2012 — when the greens were switched to Champion Bermuda — the average winner’s score has been 18.4 strokes under par, and the cut line has averaged two under par. This Par 70 measures 7,127 yards with tight fairways that should favor players who are accurate off the tee and excel at hitting Greens In Regulation (GIR).
Per PGATour.com, six of nine holes on the front nine have a scoring average under par, with five holes allowing a birdie percentage of at least 18 percent. The 529-yard Par 5 fifth hole surrenders a whopping 62 percent birdie percentage and scoring average of 4.340. Settling for par on this hole is almost like giving a full stroke back to the field. The 374-yard Par 4 eighth is also player-friendly: This beauty has given up 18 percent birdies while claiming just a six percent bogey or worse percentage and a scoring average of 3.789. The most difficult hole on the front — but still relatively benign— is the 418-yard Par 4 opening hole, which has induced an equal amount of birdies and bogeys or worse: 17 percent. Still, 66 percent of players manage to par this hole, which plays at a scoring average of 4.013.
The back nine gives more of a challenge to the players with five holes having a scoring average over par and claiming at least a 19 percent bogey or worse percentage. The 507-yard Par 4 18th hole is the toughest of the bunch: It plays at a scoring average of 4.301 and has yielded 31 percent bogeys or worse compared to nine percent birdies. But the back nine also has its fair share of scoreable holes, including the 545-yard Par 5 15th hole, which gives up 50 percent birdies and a scoring average of 4.621.
Metrics To Remember
As our baseline: All courses on the PGA Tour have allowed an average of 50.43 DraftKings points with a -0.99 Plus/Minus and 48.3 percent Consistency Rating (per our PGA Trends tool). Golfers at Sedgefield CC have historically averaged 53.39 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +4.68 Plus/Minus and 48.8 percent Consistency.
Here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Sedgefield:
Long-Term Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: +8.72
- GIR: +7.87
- Driving Distance (DD): -0.20
- Driving Accuracy (DA): +0.89
- Adjusted Putts Per Round (Adj PPR): +2.07
- Scrambling (SC): +4.52
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +7.46
- Adjusted Bogey Percentage (Adj Bog): +3.76
Unsurprisingly, at a course with a +4.68 Plus/Minus average, almost every metric we see produces positive results. It’s very interesting to note that DD is the only metric that has an overall negative result. Among the above metrics, Adj Rd Score (+4.04), GIR (+3.19), and Adj Bird Avg (+2.78) have produced the strongest results compared to the baseline. Included is Adj PPR because it nearly always produces negative results, and although it’s still below the baseline, it’s very rare to have overall positive results for this metric on any course.
Recent Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: +7.16
- GIR: +4.90
- DD: +3.73
- DA: +3.98
- Adj PPR: +4.83
- SC: +9.57
- Adj Bird Avg: +4.80
- Adj Bog: +5.11
Among the recent metrics, SC (+4.89) and Adj Rd Score (+2.48) produced the strongest results compared to the baseline. One thing to take into account about SC: Sometimes the sample size in these upper-quintile of results is small, but for Recent SC, 125 golfers produced the +9.57 Plus Minus. Adj Bird Avg, GIR, Adj PPR, and Adj Bog all came in slightly above the already-positive baseline.
A Name to Remember
Among players with three events played at Sedgefield in our database, Roberto Castro has averaged a robust 80.83 DraftKings PPT with a +35.20 Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency. Per our PGA Models, he ranks 10th with his 67.9 LT DA percentage, and he is tied for 37th in the field with his 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score. Outside of DFS, Castro currently has +500 odds to finish in the top-20 of this event, something he has done twice in the past three years.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Webb Simpson is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Simpson’s 69.0 Course Adj Rd Score ranks first among golfers with more than two starts here and sixth overall. Plus, Simpson has played well recently: His 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks third, and he has compiled a 14.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg over the past six weeks.
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