The PGA Tour brings 78 of the world’s best golfers to Akron, Ohio, for the World Golf Championships (WGC)-Bridgestone Invitational. This event has been played at Firestone Country Club’s South course under the WGC name since 1999. Prior to that, Firestone CC hosted what was formerly known as the World Series of Golf and has also played host to the PGA Championship on three occasions. The course was originally designed by Bert Way back in 1929 but was redesigned by the great Robert Trent Jones in 1960.
The field features 33 players in the top-35 of the FedEx Cup Rankings, including the Champion Golfer of the Year, Jordan Spieth. Spieth was owned at 20.35 percent in the $33 Millionaire Maker on DraftKings his last time out, and he’s likely to be popular again this week. FantasyLabs provides ownership projections in our Models, and Pro Subscribers will be able to review Jordan’s ownership across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock.
The Course
What began as a really cool benefit of being a tire maker — at least one employed by Harvey Firestone — Firestone CC South is a Par 70 that measures 7,400 yards and is noted for its length in comparison to par. Unlike the venue last week, birdies will not come easy. Last year, only nine players finished the week under par, and Dustin Johnson won with a modest score of six-under par.
Per PGATour.com, eight of nine holes on the front nine have induced a higher percentage of bogeys or worse than birdies, with four holes claiming a bogey or worse percentage of at least 20 percent. The 471-yard Par 4 fourth hole yields a 29 percent bogey percentage and scoring average of 4.206. Players need to hit a long and accurate tee shot followed by an approach shot that has to be just right in order to hold the elevated green. But the fourth hole must seem like a piece of cake by the time players finish the 494-yard Par 4 ninth: This beast has allowed just nine percent birdies while claiming a 33 percent bogey or worse percentage and a scoring average of 4.253. The players’ best chance to score on the front — and a hole they need to take advantage of — comes on the 526-yard Par 5 second hole, which has allowed a very pleasing 38 percent birdies and nine percent bogeys.
On the back nine, players hope to come away with a birdie at the 418-yard Par 4 11th hole (21 percent birdies allowed and a 3.944 scoring average) because six of the seven holes after that have yielded more bogeys than birdies. The 464-yard Par 4 finishing 18th hole will challenge golfers with a 4.163 scoring average thanks to 27 percent bogeys or worse allowed. A birdie to win here on Sunday would be unlikely, although we could surely see the hole claim a few bogeys or worse from the leaders.
Metrics To Remember
As our baseline: All courses on the PGA Tour have allowed an average of 50.62 DraftKings points with a -0.72 Plus/Minus and 48.7 percent Consistency Rating (per our PGA Trends tool). Golfers at Firestone CC South have historically averaged 56.43 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a -6.55 Plus/Minus and 31.6 percent Consistency. As you can see, Firestone is much more challenging than the average PGA course.
Here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Firestone:
Long-Term Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: -4.96
- Driving Distance (DD): -7.01
- Driving Accuracy (DA): -8.10
- Scrambling (SC): -7.34
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): -3.69
- Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament (Adj Eagle Avg): +2.26
Obviously, at a course with a -6.55 Plus/Minus average, almost every metric we see produces negative results. However, Adj Rd Score is +1.59 above the baseline and has been a good metric to focus on at this course. History seems to line up with the metrics on this one: Shane Lowry (who won in 2015) and Hunter Mahan (who won in 2010) are the only two players who have won at Firestone in the past 22 years without also having won a major. Unsurprisingly, Adj Bird Avg (+2.86) also produced positive results compared to the baseline. Interestingly, Adj Eagle Avg was the only overall positive metric, but in a small sample, and at a course unlikely to yield a ton of eagles, I wouldn’t go crazy with it.
Recent Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: -3.90
- GIR: -4.88
- DD: -4.58
- DA: -4.03
- SC: -1.55
- Adj Bird Avg: -0.36
All of the Recent metrics above — especially Adj Bird Avg (-0.36) — have all provided good value and should be considered when creating lineups this week. Recent SC (-1.55) has also produced good value compared to the baseline and could be something to leverage this week. While going after birdies is always a sound strategy in DFS golf, targeting players with strong Recent SC numbers could be a sharp way of finding some contrarian golfers for your roster here at Firestone.
A Name to Remember
Among players with three events played at Firestone in our database, Matt Kuchar has averaged a robust 72.67 DraftKings PPT with a +1.36 Plus/Minus. He is tied for third among golfers with at least four starts here with his 68.5 Course Adjusted Round Score. Moreover, Kuchar has been hot lately, ripping off three top-five finishes in the four events prior to his 32nd-place finish at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. Kuchar’s 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score and 17.7 Adj Bird Avg are both top-10 scores in this week’s field, and his 66.1 Recent SC percentage ranks seventh.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. For the first time in the Levitanimal’s history, Rory McIlroy is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. McIlroy has finished ninth or better here in four of five trips, including his win in 2014, but didn’t play here in either of the past two years. McIlroy has had a disappointing season up to this point, but he did flash some Rory-like form charging to a T4 finish at The Open Championship.
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Good luck, and be sure to do your own PGA research with the FantasyLabs Tools and watch our PGA videos on our Premium Content Portal.
