The PGA Tour heads to Oakville, Ontario, in Canada for the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey Golf Club. The Canadian Open was recently played at Glen Abbey in 2016, 2015, 2013, 2009, and 2008. Prior to that, the course hosted 22 consecutive Opens before the event began rotating courses after the year 2000. There have been changes to the course over the years, most notably changing the greens from poa annua to bentgrass, a gradual process that was completed last year. The course is the first solo design by Jack Nicklaus.
The field features 22 players who are making the trip back from The Open at Royal Birkdale, including Dustin Johnson. Johnson was owned at 7.28 percent in last week’s $33 Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, but he’s likely to be quite chalky this week. FantasyLabs provides ownership projections in our Models, and Pro Subscribers will be able to review Dustin’s ownership across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock.
The Course
Glen Abbey GC is a Par 72 that measures 7,253 yards with four Par 5 holes that all play at less than 560 yards — very short by PGA Tour standards. Players will have the opportunity to score this week: The average winning score the past three times the Canadian Open has been played at Glen Abbey was 15 under par. As always, you’ll need golfers making a ton of birdies and hopefully an eagle or two if you want to have a shot at winning a guaranteed prize pool (GPP).
Per PGATour.com, three holes on the front nine have a birdie percentage of at least 17 percent, including the 527-yard Par 5 second hole, which has surrendered a delicious 41 percent birdie percentage. Holes to watch out for on the front include the 197-yard Par 3 fourth hole (3.276 scoring average), which has enticed 29 percent bogeys or worse, while allowing just nine percent birdies. The 414-yard Par 4 ninth can also bite back: It has induced 27 percent bogeys or worse, while allowing 11 percent birdies and a scoring average of 4.188.
The back nine is where players can really score: Three of the nine holes have allowed a birdie percentage of at least 34 percent, including the 516-yard Par 5 16th hole, which has happily given up 61 percent birdies and four percent bogeys. The finishing 18th hole also welcomes golfers with a 4.586 scoring average, thanks to 43 percent birdies allowed. With two of the final three holes being virtually must-birdie, there’s potential for some Sunday fireworks at the finish.
Metrics To Remember
As our baseline: All courses on the PGA Tour have allowed an average of 50.22 DraftKings points with a -0.81 Plus/Minus and 48.8 percent Consistency Rating (per our PGA Trends tool). Golfers at Glen Abbey have historically averaged 53.35 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +2.23 Plus/Minus and 53.4 percent Consistency.
Here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Glen Abbey:
Long-Term Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: +4.63
- Driving Distance (DD): +7.35
- Driving Accuracy (DA): +0.99
- Scrambling (SC): +5.80
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +21.05
- Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament (Adj Eagle Avg): +10.34
There’s value to be had in almost every Long-Term (LT) metric. The most notable one is LT Adj Bird Avg, which produces a massive Plus/Minus. Unsurprisingly, at a course where scoring on Par 5 holes is almost imperative, LT DD has been much more valuable than LT DA. Because of the Par 5 holes, I also ran the numbers on LT Eagle Avg, which look very promising.
Recent Metrics
- Adj Rd Score: +3.04
- GIR: +10.04
- DD: +9.30
- DA: +9.83
- SC: +2.62
- Adj Bird Avg: +12.91
- Adj Eagle Avg: -0.19
Recent Adj Bird Avg, GIR, and both DD and DA have all provided consistent value and could be considered when creating lineups this week. The most surprising number is with DA, which wasn’t very valuable as a LT metric but becomes incredibly valuable as a recent metric. That said, it would stand to reason that players who have recently been keeping the ball in the fairway and finding greens in regulation would have plenty of birdie opportunities.
A Name to Remember
Over the last two events at Glen Abbey, Chez Reavie has perfect Consistency and has averaged a tasty 81.75 DraftKings PPT with a +32.2 Plus/Minus. Importantly, Reavie has been striking the ball extremely well in his last five tournaments; he has made every cut and finished as high as fourth at the St. Jude Classic. Reavie’s hefty 17.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks second in this week’s field.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. The Open’s runner-up, Matt Kuchar, is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Kuchar has finished inside the top-10 here in each of the past three years the Canadian Open has been played at Glen Abbey: His 68.1 Course Adj Rd Score ranks second in this week’s field. But it’s not just Kuchar’s course history that’s hot like fiya: Kuchar’s 67.4 Recent Adj Rd Score leads the field, thanks in part to six straight finishes of 16th or better, including three finishes of fourth or better.
Outside of DFS, Kelly Kraft currently has +10,000 moneyline odds in the prop markets to win the tournament. While he’s not likely to win, he’s striking the ball much better recently than players with similar moneyline odds. Additionally, he’s tied for 23rd in the field with his 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score and his name is Kelly.
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