This week should be another amazing week of fantasy golf, as the best golfers in the world head to Kentucky, where they’ll compete in the second major championship of 2024. For the fourth time in history, the PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, a course designed by all-time major champion Jack Nicklaus and regularly ranked among the top courses in the U.S.
The course will be long and difficult like most PGA Championship venues are. The rough is thick, the greens are fast, and the narrow tree-lined fairways will demand both accuracy and length. Two features that will get plenty of attention this week are Floyd’s Fork and Brush Run Creek, streams that crisscross the course, forcing players to make strategic risk-reward decisions.
In 2014, the last time the event visited Valhalla, Rory McIlroy won his second PGA Championship and fourth career major. Ten years later, Rory is still stuck on four career majors, but he comes in with great momentum after running away with the Wells Fargo Championship last week.
He headlines a ridiculously strong field that includes 99 of the top 100 players in the world rankings. Sixteen players will join the field from LIV Golf, including reigning PGA winner Brooks Koepka, who is also coming off a win at the most recent LIV event in Singapore. He’ll join Rory and Scottie Scheffler as three big-name plays with big-time momentum. Scheffler will play for the first time since winning four tournaments in five starts including THE PLAYERS and the Masters.
The depth of options is staggering with 156 players expected to tee it up, with the top 70 and ties surviving the cut to play the weekend.
In this post each week
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Collin Morikawa $10,200
Since the field is full of good options, the salary structure is extremely top-heavy. Not only is Scottie Scheffler’s salary up over $13,000, but there are also eight players with salaries of at least $10,000. Each has a high ceiling, but many also have elevated ownership projections. Collin Morikawa stands out as a good balance of low ownership projection but still strong potential.
Morikawa’s ownership projection is under 12%, less than half of Scheffler’s. This week, he has the fourth-highest Perfect% behind only the “Big 3” of Koepka, Rory, and Scheffler, and he brings the second-highest SimLeverage on the slate as a result.
The 27-year-old won the PGA Championship in 2020 and finished in the top 26 in three of his four appearances, making the cut every time. He has the creativity, accuracy, precision, and moxie that the PGA Championship venues usually demand. While it’s not as predictive as history on the same course, his success boosts his potential.
Despite some issues with his putter, Morikawa has finished T19 or better in all but one of the PGA Tour’s signature events this season. He switched to a mallet putter at Augusta on his way to a T3 at the Masters. In 2024, he ranks in the top 30 in the field in Total Shots Gained and Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s been even hotter over his last 12 rounds, ranking in the top 10 in each category and also vastly improving his putting.
Whether it’s the new putter or returning to his long-time swing coach, Morikawa seems to have his game heading in the right direction, and getting him at such a low ownership is a strong option this week.
Max Homa $9,700
Homa has the second-highest SimLeverage of the options in the $9,000s this week behind only the still-ailing Will Zalatoris. Homa is still high-risk since he is unproven in majors, but he has all the pieces to add a major championship to his six PGA TOUR wins, which have come on setups that include PGA Championship-like conditions.
The 33-year-old tied for third with Morikawa, his fellow California native, at the Masters and also finished in the top 10 at The Open Championship last year, showing his upward trajectory in majors. He finished in the top 10 at the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow last week and should have his game tuned up and ready to roll. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four, including that week.
Homa has the second-highest Perfect% of the players under $10,000 and an ownership projection under 10%. He ranks in the top 20 in the field in Total Strokes Gained and Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 12 rounds and has also excelled around the green, ranking in the top 15. He has the length and all the tools, and after contending at the Masters, a breakthrough feels imminent.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tyrell Hatton $8,200
With so many expensive plays on the board that you already know and love, I’m going to try and help you find some salary savers in the rest of my picks for this week, looking toward the lower part of each spending section. Hatton is toward the bottom of the mid-price range, but he looks excellent in our projections.
Hatton has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players priced under $10,000, so his salary barely over $8,000 makes him an extremely good value. The Englishman is coming from LIV Golf, so there is a little unknown, but he had no trouble at the Masters, where he finished in the top 10 with a 69 in the closing round. It was his sixth career top 10 in major championships, where he has made 22-of-35 cuts.
Hatton finished in the top 15 at The Sentry and the Sony Open in Hawaii to start the season then joined Rahm’s team in LIV Golf. He has finished in the top 15 in seven of his eight LIV Golf events this season, including a top five in Singapore in his most recent tournament.
His one career PGA TOUR victory came at Bay Hill, which plays long and with a major-like field. His temperament is volatile, which makes his results boom or bust, but he has been playing good golf and comes with plenty of upside to lean into his ceiling and boom-or-bust style in GPPs this week.
Jason Day $7,900
Normally, I keep my mid-range plays over $8,000, but salary will be tight this week, so let’s go just under that total and roll with Day. He’s one of the few players in the field who played this track in 2014 when Rory won. He entered Sunday T4, just three strokes off of the lead, and finished in the top 15 as one of his nine top 25s in 14 PGA Championships, including his lone major championship win in 2015 at Whistling Straits. He has made the cut in 11-of-14 PGA Championships and 38-of-49 major championships.
Day turned his career around with a big 2023 that included his win at the Byron Nelson, and he’s continued his success in 2024, although he is without a victory yet. He has six top-30 finishes including three of his last four tournaments and is coming off a top-five at Quail Hollow last week.
Like Homa and Morikawa, his strong overall game includes plenty of length for him to feel comfortable at this style of venue, and he comes in with good form. He ranks in the top 30 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and in the top 12 in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds. Thankfully, his game has looked better than some of his recent fashion choices.
Day has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players with salaries under $8,000 and the second-highest Perfect% in that range as well.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Russell Henley $7,300
Henley has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all players with salaries under $8,000, behind just Day and Byeong Hun An. He has an ownership projection under 5%, so he also has the second-highest SimLeverage of all players with salaries under $7,500.
Henley also played this track in 2014 but missed the cut. He has made the cut in seven of his 10 PGA Championship appearances but hasn’t scratched the top 10 yet.
He comes to Valhalla this year with good form in two strong weeks against an elite field. Henley finished T12 at Harbour Town and T10 at Quail Hollow in two Signature Events. He has five top 20s already this season and three top 5s.
He has a unique profile since he doesn’t hit it extremely far like the other options discussed above, but he can often make up for it with accuracy and good approach play. Over the last 16 rounds, Henley ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and most of that comes from his top-eight Strokes Gained: Approach over that span. He hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since November 2022, but he could definitely overcome his length challenges with good shot making and contend this week.
Chris Kirk $6,900
Kirk has the second-highest SimLeverage of the players at $7,000 or under and the fifth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in that price range. He has an ownership projection of 3% even though his Perfect% is the highest of any player under $7,200.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his 11 tournaments this season and contended in elite fields. Kirk even emerged triumphant at The Sentry early this season at the first Signature Event. He also finished in the top 20 at the Masters and the RBC Heritage before slipping up a bit last week at Quail Hollow and finishing T43.
Kirk is 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is one of the strongest shot-makers on the PGA TOUR who can sometimes be held back by his putting. We’ve seen approach-shot specialists succeed at the PGA Championship, so it isn’t surprising that it has been his best major. He has made the cut each of the last two seasons, highlighted by a T5 finish in 2022.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Lucas Glover $6,100
Less than a year ago, Glover was contending with the top golfers on the PGA TOUR and picked up back-to-back wins at the Wyndham and St. Jude. Getting an established veteran at this salary with significant upside makes a lot of sense if you need ways to save salary. He has the highest projections and the fifth-highest Perfect% of all golfers under $7,000.
Unsurprisingly, he hasn’t sustained that impressive success, but he has had a quietly solid 2024. As a winner last year, he qualified for all the big events and made the cut in 10 of his 12 tournaments in 2024, exceeding salary-based expectations in all 10 of those events. His best finish was a T11 at the Valspar Championship, and since then, he has a top 20 at the Masters and a top 12 at the RBC Heritage.
Over his last 24 rounds, Glover is 20th in the field in Total Strokes Gained and eighth in Shots Gained: Approach. His putter has let him down; he could have been racking up multiple top 10s and challenging to win.
It’s been a while, but Glover does have a major championship (2009 U.S. Open) and finished fifth in the PGA Championship that year. Throughout his career, he has three top 25s and is 6-for-12, making the cut at this event. With his current momentum, he should be a good pick to at least make the cut and return value this week.
Jordan L. Smith $5,500
I’m going international for my cheapest selection of the week and taking Smith, a 31-year-old from England who does most of his work on the DP World Tour. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the entire field and the most Pts/Sal. His ceiling, median, and floor projections rank in the top four of players under $7,000, so getting him at $5,500 is pretty amazing. Smith’s ownership projection is just 2.0%, so he’s also a strong differentiator.
He has a pair of career top 20s in the majors, including the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where he finished T9. He has played 11 PGA TOUR events in his career, with seven made cuts and just that one top 10. On the DP World Tour, though, he has been in good form. He has solid long-term form in iron play and cuts made, and he has finished in the top 25 in four of his last five tournaments, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa.
His game fits the profile of typical PGA Championship success. He ranks 12th on the DP World Tour in Driving Accuracy and second in Greens in Regulation. He doesn’t hit it quite as far as would be ideal for a long track like this, but his iron play can help him compensate. He’s much more than just a punt play, but his salary is low enough that he lets you play the stars you want, and if he makes the cut, he should end up a great value.
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