The second major of the golf season has arrived, and all the best golfers in the world will be headed to upstate New York for this week’s PGA Championship. As usual with the majors, we get an elite field on an elite track for what should be a memorable championship that will crown a major champion.
The course sets up to be a beast. Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York, is a par 70 that can stretch to 7,399 yards and should present a difficult challenge and fair test of skills throughout the bag. This will be the fourth time that Oak Hill Country Club has hosted this tournament, with the most recent visit crowing Jason Dufner a PGA Champion.
For more on the course, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This week, the field is the same number of golfers as a usual full-field event on the PGA TOUR, with 156 players ready to tee it up. It’s in stark contrast to the 88-player limited field at the Masters. The cut rules are a little different than usual, though, since the top 70 players and ties will make the weekend instead of the top 65 like usual. There are also 20 spots awarded to PGA of America teaching professionals that qualify through the PGA Professional Championship, which was held last April in Austin.
The defending champion is Justin Thomas, who won the PGA Championship for the second time last year with a triumph at Southern Hills. He has been overshadowed this season by Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, who have been dueling at the top of the FedExCup standings and the OWGR rankings. Rahm comes in atop both standings with four wins this season, including the first major of the year at the Masters. Scheffler comes in second behind Rahm with wins in two Designated events, THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open.
There is plenty of depth in the field, though, with stars Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, and Jason Day all getting wins over the past few weeks. It’s also worth keeping a close eye on the status of Jordan Spieth, who had to withdraw from last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson due to a wrist injury but is planning on returning to action this week. The LIV Tour will be represented by 16 golfers in the field this week, including Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed, who all finished in the top five at The Masters.
In this post, we focus on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who many fantasy players may overlook or pass by due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. Since this week’s a major, there’s a chance to win $1 million in the $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire! This contest is part of DraftKings Championship Series which also awards a ticket to the Fantasy Tournament of Champions. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Rory McIlroy $10,700
Rahm and Scheffler are both strong picks to win this week and deserve to have the top two salaries. Just below them, though, is a great chance to go against the flow and get some leverage with Rory. McIlroy has the third-best odds to win the tournament, according to Sportsbooks, and he comes in with the third-highest salary, but his projected ownership is surprisingly low. He has just the 16th-highest projected ownership in the field, coming in under 12%.
Everything points to Rory having a good chance to win another Wanamaker except one thing–recent form. Let’s start with the bad news–in his last three starts, Rory missed the cut at the Masters and THE PLAYERS and only finished T47 at Quail Hollow, a track where he has thrived in the past. He has finished below salary-based expectations in five of his six most recent events. His recent form hasn’t been good at all, but there are still reasons to like him to turn things around this week, and if he does, he’ll be a great GPP option at this low ownership.
Rory’s length should be a great fit for the course, and he should know it very well since he is an honorary member at the club. His wife grew up in the area, and he’s been adopted as a “hometown favorite” for this week. From a stats perspective, it should be a good fit for Rory’s best game, but when Rory’s on his game, he can dominate just about any course. The course is built to reward his strengths off the tee and with long iron play, so he should be able to excel if his game is back on point.
He has won the PGA Championship twice in his career, in 2012 and 2014, and he finished in the top 10 in seven of his 14 PGA Championships, missing the cut only one time. He finished T8 the last time the event was held on this track, although there are some questions as to how much that matters since the course has been redesigned significantly since then.
Our sims like Rory this week. He’s in the fourth-most optimal lineups and has a 95% Perfect%. His 18.5% Perfect% combined with his low projected ownership gives him the third-highest SimLeverage in the field.
His price and recent form are pushing people away, but he has a great chance to contend, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he wins and rejoin Scheffler and Ram as the “big three.” For GPP lineups, this is a great spot to go against the flow and build around McIlroy.
Patrick Cantlay $9,700
There are several strong plays in the $9K range who are looking to break through to win their first major. Cantlay checks all of the boxes for a great fit for the course, especially off the tee, where his driving game has been excellent this season. He has gained 4.8 SG: Off The Tee in his last five measured starts, and in his past 24 rounds, he ranks first in the field in SG: Off The Tee and second in SG: Tee to Green.
Once he’s on the green, Cantlay should still be comfortable since Bentgrass is also his best putting surface. Each of his four most recent victories has come on Bentgrass greens, including the BMW Championship in last year’s PGA TOUR playoffs.
He hasn’t won since then, but he has been playing well, especially lately. He has three top-five finishes at elevated events, finishing third at the RBC Heritage, fourth at the Arnold Palmer, and third at the Genesis Invitational. He has played 12 events this season on the PGA TOUR and finished in the top 25 in 10 of them, with his only missed cut of the season coming at the WM Phoenix Open.
He missed the cut in last year’s PGA Championship but finished T3 in 2019 and only missed the cut one time in his seven career appearances. He has stepped up his performances at recent major championships with three top-15 finishes since missing that cut at Southern Hills last year.
Cantlay is projected to be a little chalky with the fifth-highest projected ownership in the field, but he still brings the third-highest SimLeverage of all golfers in the $9,000’s trailing only the injured Jordan Spieth and LIV’s Cameron Smith.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $8,900
There are 11 players priced between $8K and $9K, and there isn’t a lot of SimLeverage available, with only Hideki Matsuyama bringing a SimLeverage over 1%. Since there isn’t quite as much leverage as a whole in this range, I’m going to go a little chalky with Day, who has rejuvenated his game this season and comes in fresh off a win last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s been a regular in my lineups this season and has delivered above salary-based expectations in eight of his 10 tournaments in 2023 if we include his run at the WGC-Match Play.
Day shot a scorching 62 on Sunday to claim his first win in over five years, but it doesn’t look like he will have to wait nearly that long again if he stays healthy. His redesigned swing hopefully helps with that, taking some of the strain off his back, and as long as his vertigo doesn’t make an appearance, he should be ready to return strong results again this week.
His game is a great fit for the course, and he tied with Rory for eighth in 2013 on this track. He also won the PGA Championship in 2015 for his only career major. At his peak, he was a regular on PGA Championship leaderboards, though, with five top 10s in an eight-year span. He has only missed the cut at the PGA Championship twice in his 13 appearances and has made the cut in 10 straight years. He has also made the cut in 13 of his 16 events this season with 12 top 25s culminating in last week’s win in Dallas.
While I do wish his projected ownership was lower, it’s just over 13%, which I think is too low given his form and past performance at the PGA. He always comes with health risks, but that “boom-or-bust” profile is ok for GPP in order to get his sky-high ceiling.
He has the highest ceiling projection of all players under $9K and is in the third-most optimal lineups for players in that price range.
Tom Kim $8,000
Kim brings the second-highest SimLeverage between $8K and $9K, and his game has been rounding into form lately. He’s projected for under 10% ownership, which makes him a good spot to differentiate your lineup while also saving some salary.
After bursting onto the PGA TOUR with wins at the 2022 Wyndham Championship and the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open, Kim has settled into solid but unspectacular results in 2023. He had top 10s at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express in January but has only finished in the top 20 two times since then despite making the cut in nine of 10 events.
One of those top-20 finishes did come at Augusta National, where Kim finished T16 in the first major of the season. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship last year but has made the cut in his three majors since. He has also been rounding into form lately and exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his past four events. He finished with a 69-65 last weekend to surge up to a T34 in Dallas.
Kim has the ceiling to contend this week, so getting him at $8K with single-digit ownership is a solid strategy. He’s still only 20 years old, so don’t pass on him just because he hasn’t won since last fall.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Taylor Moore $7,800
Just under $8K, there are some well-known, proven options getting most of the attention and ownership. Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, and Rickie Fowler (one of my personal favorites) are all getting lots of deserved attention and profile as strong plays. However, my best option for GPPs in the upper $7,000s is Moore, since he comes in with a surprisingly low ownership projection of under 3%, which is less than half of those players mentioned above and less than a quarter of Fowler and Scott, who are each projected for over 12% ownership.
Moore has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight events and in 10 of his past 11. He has made the cut in 10 of his past 11 events as well, dating back to the Farmers Insurance Open. During that run, he has an average Plus/Minus of 17.3 DraftKings points.
He broke through for his first PGA TOUR victory at the Valspar Championship in March and followed that up with a T39 in his first trip to the Masters. He placed T11 the following week at the elevated event at Harbour Town and added a T27 at Quail Hollow after placing in the top five of the team event in New Orleans.
Moore typically excels with his long irons, which is what helped him tame the Snake Pit earlier this season. He also has gained strokes off the tee in 11 of his last 12 measured events, gained strokes on approach in five of his last six, and gained strokes putting in eight of his last nine events. He’s consistently strong throughout his bag and should be up to the balanced challenge presented by Oak Hill.
He’s not quite as established as the other players mentioned above in this price range, but that’s something to take advantage of to differentiate your GPP lineups this week.
Emiliano Grillo $7,300
As a result of the salaries for this event coming out early, Si Woo Kim is underpriced given his recent results, and makes a strong play as the player with the best projected Plus/Minus in the entire field. However, he’s also pretty chalky with an ownership projection of 12.9%, which is the second-highest of any player under $8K, behind only Wyndham Clark.
If you’re looking for more of a pivot play in this range, check out Grillo, who is projected for ownership under 3% but comes in playing well. Grillo has made the cut in seven of his last eight events, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of those tournaments, including each of the last four. He finished in the top 10 at the RBC Heritage and at the Mexico Open and also made the cut and finished in the top 25 at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago.
Grillo is typically a strong player off the tee and ranks in the top 30 in total driving this season. His approach game has also been strong lately, and he actually leads this elite field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds while also ranking in the top 10 SG: Tee to Green. Once he’s on the green, Grillo seems to prefer bentgrass putting surfaces like these at Oak Hill. He has made the cut in each of his past 12 events on bent grass, including two runner-up finishes.
Grillo has only one PGA TOUR career win, and that came back in 2015 when he won the Frys.com Open (since rebranded as the Fortinet Championship). The 30-year-old from Argentina has typically fared well at the PGA Championship, though, making the cut in six of seven career appearances with a pair of top 25s.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Seamus Power $7,000
Power has the fourth-highest Perfect% of all golfers priced $7K or lower and the eighth-highest ceiling projection in that range but checks in with projected ownership under 6%.
Power is a proven performer at tracks like this one and finished T9 at Southern Hills last year in the PGA Championship as part of his three top 30s in last year’s majors. He also made the cut at the Masters earlier this year despite not having the best form at the time. After missing the cut the following week at the RBC Heritage, Power has found his top form with top 20 finishes at Quail Hollow and TPC Craig Ranch.
The 36-year-old Irishman has moved into the top 15 in the FedExCup race and the top 40 in the World Rankings after those strong finishes. He excels on Bentgrass greens and has the kind of course management it usually takes to finish well in major championships.
He’s a long shot, but at just $7K, if he makes the cut and contends, he’ll be a great sleeper play for GPP lineups.
Brandon Wu $6,700
Wu has the second-highest Bargain Rating of all players $7K or under, and he brings even more leverage than Power with his projected ownership under 3%.
In his second year on the PGA TOUR, Wu has put together a very solid season with 15 made cuts and five top 25s in 21 tournaments. He finished runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a solo third at the Mexico Open for his two best results. After that third-place finish, he added another top 25 last week at the Byron Nelson, where he improved his score each round, culminating in a 64 on Sunday.
Wu will be making his PGA Championship debut, but he has shown he can contend on difficult courses in good fields by finishing T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this season and in the top 10 at last year’s Genesis Scottish Open. His solid all-around game should enable him to find success at Oak Hill.
Some other cheap longshot plays that make sense this week include Adrian Meronk ($6,700), Ryan Fox ($6,500), and Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,500).
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