What You Need To Know
This week over a half million golf fans will flock to TPC Scottsdale where many of them will set up shop at the raucous par-3 16th hole for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course spreads out over 7,266 yards, plays at a par 71, and has hosted this event since 1987. Tom Weiskopf spent the summer of 2014 redesigning the course, which is now more challenging: In the two years prior to the redesign the average winning score was 22-under par, and in the two years since the redesign the average winning score has been 14.5-under par. The course has three Par-5 holes that golfers need to take advantage of.
Feel free to target the bombers once again. Per our free Trends tool, golfers with a Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) of 296 yards or more have traditionally had a distinct advantage over their shorter-hitting counterparts here at Scottsdale since 2014:
Focusing on golfers who traditionally pepper the greens is also probably a good strategy. Golfers with a LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage in the top quintile have consistently crushed their salary-based expectations at Scottsdale:
The Big Three and Jon Rahm
Steven Spieth’s Older Brother
The most expensive player in the field, Jordan Spieth, arrives in Scottsdale with sizable (and field-best) 12.5 percent odds to win the tournament. Spieth’s 68.3 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is tied atop the field, and his 16.2 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) is second overall. Spieth also ranks inside the top five in LT Adjusted Par 4 (-1.2) and Adjusted Par 5 (-5.5) scoring this week. Spieth’s 78.0 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) over the past 12 months is the third highest this week. Our recent metrics sample is small for 2017 but Spieth’s 84.7 Recent GIR percentage accumulated in two tournaments is tied for the best overall score in the field.
Spieth debuted at Scottsdale with a T7 in 2015 but hasn’t played here since. He is in excellent form with two third-place finishes in 2017 and a win at the Australian Open to close out 2016.
Nothing But Wins
Justin Thomas made quick work of the Aloha state and has done nothing but win baby in 2017. His Recent Adj Rd Score — as you might expect — is a field-best and quite impressive 65.8. Thomas’ current 10 percent odds to win the tournament are second to only Spieth’s. His LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th, his 15.2 Adj Bird Avg is tied for fourth, and he has a top-20 LT DD (302.9 yards). Thomas’ 11 Pro Trends are the second most in the field.
JT finished 17th here in 2015 and missed the cut last year. Our FantasyLabs projected ownership (accessible in our Player Models) currently has him at 17 to 20 percent in large tournaments.
The Reigning and Defending Champion
Hideki Matsuyama‘s 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied atop the field with Spieth’s. Matsuyama’s 16.1 Adj Bird Avg ranks third, and he has a top-25 LT GIR percentage (68.4). Hideki’s 8.3 percent odds to win are the third highest, and like Spieth he ranks inside the top five in both LT Adjusted Par 4 (-1.4) and Adjusted Par 5 (-5.2) scoring.
Matsuyama’s history at Scottsdale is as good as it gets: He has a win, a runner-up, and a fourth-place finish in his only three starts here. His 66.9 Course Adj Rd Score is more than a full stroke better than that of anyone else who has made more than one start at this track. Incredibly, he has shot 14 under 270 in each one of his appearances at Scottsdale. He has finished 33rd and 27th in his two most recent starts after winning 100 straight tournaments. (That’s hyperbole.)
Last Week’s Winner
Jon Rahm won last week on the strength of his closing nine holes, which included two eagles in his final six holes and an incredible 60-footer on the 18th. The Arizona State product finished T5 here in 2015 as an amateur. Rahm’s game is great for DK scoring: He has scored at least 100 DK points in five of his last nine tournaments, and his 85.1 DK PPT over the past 12 months is the best mark in the field.
Rahm ranks fourth in LT Adj Rd Score (68.6), sixth in LT GIR (70.6 percent), 13th in LT DD (304.2), and first with a 17.1 LT Adj Bird Avg.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Brooks Koepka ($9,100): Koepka won here in 2015 and finished 41st last year. His 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score and 14.8 LT Adj Bird Avg are both ninth overall, and he has a top-15 LT DD (304.1) and top-35 LT GIR percentage (67.9). Koepka is coming off a missed cut at the Farmers, which could diminish his ownership.
Gary Woodland ($9,000): Woodland has looked sharp in two tournaments this season (sixth- and 20th-place finishes), and he has made six of seven cuts here at Scottsdale with a fifth-place finish in 2011. His 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th, and his 305.3-yard LT DD is 10th. He has a top-20 LT Scrambling (SC) percentage (61.5). Woodland leads the field with 12 Pro Trends, one of which — LT Birdie Score At Least 65 — has historically been worth a +3.50 Plus/Minus.
Bubba Watson ($8,300): Last year Watson said he didn’t like this course and was only here because of his sponsors. He was speaking specifically about the redesign, but Bubba has finished second and 14th over the past two years. Overall, his 68.1 Course Adj Rd Score is second to only Hideki’s among golfers who have made more than one start in the event. Watson’s 68.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth, his 69.5 percent LT GIR is tied for 12th, his 15 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for seventh, and he has the fifth-longest LT DD (310.1) in the field.
Brendan Steele ($8,200): Steele’s 68.6 Course Adj Rd Score is sixth best among golfers who have made at least two starts at TPC Scottsdale. His 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score ranks in the top 20 this week, and his 301.5-yard LT DD is 21st overall. Steele has finished sixth, sixth, and 20th to start the 2017 season while averaging 93.3 DK PPT. He has destroyed his salary-based expectations this year:
Shane Lowry ($7,800): Lowry’s salary is squarely in DK’s soft zone this weekend, and we have him projected for just five to eight percent ownership in large tournaments. He finished 33rd in last week’s Farmers Insurance Open and posted a sixth-place finish in his debut here last season.
Tony Finau ($7,600): Finau has been extremely sharp to start the season with ninth-, 20th-, and fourth-place finishes in his first three starts. He has not scored fewer than 95.5 DK points in a tournament this year. Finau’s 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is third among golfers who have made three starts this year, and his 310.7-yard LT DD ranks fourth overall. He missed the cut here last season but did finish 22nd in 2015.
Patrick Rodgers ($6,600): His salary is pretty low for a guy who finished fourth last week and 17th here in his debut last year. Rodgers’ 302.1-yard LT DD and 69.1 percent LT GIR give him a chance for success once again this week.
Hunter Mahan ($6,400): Mahan actually made a cut last week (his first in his last eight tournaments) so he’s trending in the right direction. That said, he did shoot 80 on Sunday. Oooops! Mahan won here way back in 2010, and his 69.3 Course Adj Rd Score is a top-10 mark among golfers with at least three starts at this course.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve tweaked. Webb Simpson ($7,900) is the adjusted model’s third-rated golfer behind the aforementioned Matsuyama and Watson. He’s this week’s Levitanimal, if I may be so bold. Simpson’s impressive 68.3 Course Adj Rd Score is fifth among golfers who have made more than one start here. He has top-15 finishes in his last four starts at TPC Scottsdale, including a 14th-place finish last year.
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Be sure to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
