Almost exactly a year ago — in my FantasyLabs debut — I began an experimental series called Finding Frankenstein. In it, I used our Trends tool to do a ton of research, which ultimately led me to conclude that Billy Horschel would be a great play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at the Valero Texas Open. Horschel finished T4 and scored 88.0 DraftKings points on his way to a robust +35.12 Plus/Minus. Ever since then, I’ve . . .
- Been incorrigible
- Held a special place in my heart for the Valero Texas Open
Of course, I can’t take all the credit. I mean, I wasn’t the one who built my own custom Player Model or anything.
Let’s talk about the tournament: TPC San Antonio is a difficult, tree-lined course that gets even more difficult when the Texas winds kick up. Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) and Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) are the metrics we will concentrate on this week.
The Former Frankenstein
Horschel’s 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th, his 68.7 percent LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) is tied for 23rd, and his 12.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 30th.
His recent play has been shaky: Horschel has missed the cut three times in his last six events, and his 70.9 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks near the bottom of the field. That said, Billy has placed fourth or better in three of his four most recent trips to TPC San Antonio.
The Vegas Favorite
Matt Kuchar currently has the highest odds to win (5.3 percent) of any golfer in the field. Per usual, he’s likely to have around 20 percent ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the tournament starts.
Additionally, Kuchar’s well-known cut-making ability — his 15 percent LT missed cut rate ranks fifth overall — is likely to have him very highly owned in FanDuel’s late rounds, so rostering him in Rounds 1-2 could be a contrarian way to gain exposure to the favorite.
Kuchar’s 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score leads the field, his 13.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 10th, and his 68.9 Course Adjusted Round Score ranks third among golfers with more than one start here. Kuchar has four top-25 finishes in his last five trips to TPC San Antonio. Kuchar is on a bit of short-term heater and has averaged 85.75 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) in his last two events.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Brooks Koepka: After a slew of missed cuts and disappointing finishes, Koepka appeared to right the ship with a solid weekend at Augusta, where he finished 11th. Koepka’s 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score ranks second overall, and his 15.0 LT Adj Bird Avg leads the field this week.
Brendan Steele: Steele’s 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is fourth this week: He has five top-20 finishes in his eight stroke-play events in 2017. Steele’s 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth, and his 13.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is 12th overall.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin’s 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth, his 14.4 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for fourth, and his 28.5 LT Adjusted Putts Per Round (Adj PPR) is tied for sixth. Hadwin missed the cut here last year but has three top-25 finishes, including a win and a sixth-place finish in his last four starts: His 67.5 Recent Adj Rd Score leads the field.
Ryan Palmer: Palmer’s 69.6 Course Adj Rd Score ranks 16th among golfers with more than one start here, and he has an average finishing position of fifth in his two most recent trips to TPC San Antonio. Both Palmer’s 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score and 13.9 LT Adj Bird Avg rank inside the top 10 of this field.
Sam Saunders: Saunders’ 89.5 DraftKings PPT in his three most recent events is the best in the field among golfers with more than one start in the past month. His 13.6 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks 18th among golfers with more than one start in the past six weeks, and he has finished no worse than 20th in three straight tournaments.
JT Poston: Poston’s 14.9 LT Adj Bird Avg is second to only Koepka’s, and his 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th. He has made the cut in five straight PGA Tour events, during which he has three top-25 finishes.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve modified slightly. Last year’s Valero Texas Open Champion, Charley Hoffman, is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Amazingly, Hoffman has not finished worse than 13th here in seven trips since 2010. His 68.1 Course Adj Rd Score is the best in the field. And Hoffman is arriving in excellent form: His 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score is 12th, and his 14.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks 13th among golfers with more than one start in the past six weeks. His combination of course history and recent form makes him a solid player for cash games on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Humpnostication
J.J. Spaun has been knocking on the door with three top-10 finishes this season, including a sixth-place finish last week (when he was a DraftKings weekend beast). Spaun gets his ball in scoring position with great regularity: His 71.1 LT GIR percentage is tied for sixth, and his 13.2 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks 17th. Load up some J.J. and have some ice-cold Coors Lights.
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Good luck this week!
