The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
THE PLAYERS Championship is one of my all-time favorite tournaments of the season. We get a loaded field at TPC Sawgrass with all of the top-50 players in the Official World Gold Rankings attending, and my favorite part: the infamous No. 17 par-3.
The Course
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72, 7,189-yard course. No. 17 is what Sawgrass is most famous for, but the 462-yard par-4 No. 18 can be daunting as well. Per PGA Tour Media, the 18th hole was the second-toughest on TOUR last season, playing to a stroke average of 4.486. You can also be rewarded on the 16th hole if you dare to flirt with the water hazard. Going for the green has rewarded golfers with 0.5 fewer strokes versus golfers laying up over the past 14 years. Rickie Fowler demonstrated this in 2015:
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC Sawgrass. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 48.93 DraftKings points and a -1.56 Plus/Minus with a 45.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Missed Cuts: +2.28 Plus/Minus
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +1.85 Plus/Minus
- Recent Scrambling: +1.85 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament: +1.77 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.59 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament: +1.29 Plus/Minus
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +1.17 Plus/Minus
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +1.07 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.94 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +0.88 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.82 Plus/Minus
- Course Driving Accuracy: +0.37 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +0.33 Plus/Minus
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +0.27 Plus/Minus
- Course Driving Distance: +0.14 Plus/Minus
- Course Count: +0.02 Plus/Minus
Among the metrics that back-tested well here, recent form seems to be one of the more crucial aspects to pay attention to, as Recent Missed Cuts, Recent Scrambling, and Recent Adj Rd Score were among the top three. Excellent scramblers should also get a slight boost, as Recent and LT SC back-tested well. An interesting fact, per PGA Tour Media: Eight of the last nine champions have finished inside the top 10 in scrambling. I found it odd that neither LT or Recent GIR back-tested positively at Sawgrass. Nonetheless, ball-striking is still something I’ll be paying attention to, as usual.
The Studs
Rory McIlroy ($11,600 DraftKings) checks in with the highest salary this week and the highest odds (6.7%) to win. His 67.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is the second-best mark in the field, and he has been crushing par-5s of late, averaging -7.5 adjusted strokes. That said, he’s been struggling on the par-4s, averaging +1.5 average adjusted strokes over his past two tournaments. Rory has historically performed well at Sawgrass with five straight made cuts since 2013, including four top-13 finishes. However, to pay off his salary, you’ll need McIlroy to contend for those placing bonuses. Over McIlroy’s past four tournaments at Sawgrass, he has exceeded salary-based expectations by just +0.64 points with 50% Consistency.
Jason Day ($11,400) is coming off a win at Quail Hollow last week after not playing for nearly a month. It was a tournament in which he didn’t hit many GIR (56.9%), but his putter was on fire (25 putts per round), and his scrambling was on point as he avoided bogey or worse on 77.4% of holes after his approach shot missed the green. Day is no stranger to Sawgrass, as he won this event in 2016: The Australian checks all the boxes we are looking at with his 68.0 Rec Adj Round Score, -1.5 average adjusted strokes on par-4s, and his 72.7% Recent SC is the fourth-best mark in the field.
Jordan Spieth ($11,100) is interesting because he has historically struggled at THE PLAYERS, missing three of four cuts over his past four appearances:
That said, if you’re a non-course-history believer, then you likely don’t care — especially when you look at his metrics. Spieth’s LT -3.2 average adjusted strokes on par-4s is the best mark in the field by 0.9 strokes, and his 62.3% LT SC ranks inside the top 15 this week. Further, Spieth’s recent form looks even better with his 67.6 Rec Adj Rd Score, 76.4% Rec GIR, and 74.3% Rec SC. Over the past six weeks, nobody has averaged more birdies per tournament than Spieth (21).
Justin Thomas ($10,800) has comparable odds (5.9%) to all the top-priced golfers but comes at a slight discount. JT is equipped with a balanced game that can succeed at Sawgrass, as his LT/Rec GIR are between 66-70%. Further, Thomas’ 0.8 LT Eagles is the best mark in the field, and his LT -2.3 average adjusted strokes on par-4s mark trails only Spieth’s. Historically, Thomas has crushed when he owns comparable Vegas odds to this week, and he’s come at modest ownership:
Dustin Johnson ($10,300) is the cheapest he’s been since January 7th:
DJ has missed the cut only once at THE PLAYERS in his past seven appearances, but he’s also finished within the top 13 just once while finishing 28th or worse in his other six appearances. DJ is incredibly discounted considering he owns a field-best LT Adj Rd Score of 67.9 and is still the best golfer in the world. DJ is an excellent ball-striker with his 69.9% LT GIR, and his LT average adjusted strokes on par-3s, par-4s, and par-5s all rank within the top nine of the field. Not to mention his 0.7 LT Eagles per tournament trails only Thomas’.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,500) owns the eighth-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.5), but he’s priced as the No. 30 golfer. Cantlay’s recent form doesn’t look great with a MC at The Masters, but he did muster a seventh-place finish at The Heritage. Overall, Cantlay isn’t the best scrambler, but he’s accurate off the tee, and he can hit GIR (69.2% long-term). At the very least, Cantlay is an excellent cut-maker, as he’s missed just 4% of cuts in his past 25 tournaments. Further, the 26-year-old has 1.8% odds to win, and he’s historically crushed salary-based expectations with a +17.62 Plus/Minus when he’s boasted comparable odds:
Webb Simpson ($7,300) is priced outside the top 30, and he owns a solid 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score. Further, Simpson’s LT SC of 66.2% is a field-best. Since he is also coming into this tournament with excellent recent form (67.0 Rec Adj Rd Score and 66.3% Recent SC), Simpson will likely be a staple for me this week at his cheap price.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,500) is a solid value who enters this week in excellent form with a 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 70.4% of GIR and 73.2% of fairways. Further, he’s also been able to capitalize on his birdie opportunities with his 17.3 birdies per tournament within the same time frame. Overall, Grillo has been able to gain strokes in all facets of the game, as evidenced by his average adjusted strokes on par-3, par-4s, and par-5s over the past six weeks:
Zach Johnson ($7,300) is another guy I typically target to round out my roster given his cut-making ability, as he’s missed just 13% of cuts over his past 36 tournaments. This season, ZJ is sporting a +10.12 Plus/Minus with an 83% Consistency Rating, and he hasn’t missed a cut at THE PLAYERS over his past seven appearances.
Chesson Hadley ($7,400) is projected for just 5-8% ownership at the time of writing this. He is a great all-around fit for this course, as his metrics look great in LT DD (not as important this week), LT GIR (69.5%), LT DA (61.5%), and LT SC (61.5%). Further, Hadley enters this week in terrific form with a 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score over his past five tournaments. He is one of three players who has played at least five tournaments over the past six weeks and hasn’t missed a cut. In those five tournaments he’s averaging an outstanding +26.73 Plus/Minus:
The Bump and Run
Rickie Fowler ($9,600) has been playing well of late with a 67.5 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 70.3% of GIR, 67.3% of fairways, and he boasts an excellent 70.2% Recent SC. Further, he also rates well in LT Eagles and is averaging -2.7 average adjusted strokes on par-4s over his past four tournaments. Fowler has all the tools to contend here.
It’s possible Jon Rahm ($9,300) could potentially go under-owned this week (13-16% projected ownership) considering he missed the cut in his first appearance at THE PLAYERS last season. Rahm hasn’t played a PGA event since The Masters, but he is coming off a win at the Open de Espana a few weeks ago. Overall, Rahm is in excellent recent form with a 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting an absurd 77.8% of GIR. Further, his Recent Eagles (2.0), -5.5 average adjusted strokes on par-4s, and -12 average adjusted strokes on par-5s are all field-bests. Aside from his recent form, Rahm is one of the best par-4 and par-5 scorers on tour overall, as evidenced by his -2.0 and -5.4 average adjusted strokes over the past 75 weeks.
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300) is making his first appearance at THE PLAYERS. DeChambeau owns two top-four finishes over his past three events, giving him a 67.7 Recent Adj Rd Score. Overall, DeChambeau has been capitalizing on par-4s, as evidenced by his -3.0 average adjusted strokes on them. Historically, golfers with comparable Recent Adj Rd Scores and Vegas odds (2%) have been solid investments, sporting a +3.37 Plus/Minus and a 60.3% Consistency Rating.
With recent form back-testing so well, it’d be a shame to not mention Patrick Reed ($8,700) since he hasn’t finished outside of the top eight in his past four tournaments:
The same thing for Reed can be said for Henrik Stenson ($8,800):
Both Stenson and Reed rank inside the top seven in Recent Adj Rd Score and recent average adjusted strokes on par-4s and par-5s. Stenson also leads the tour in driving accuracy.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Webb Simpson
Photo credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
