The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The FedEx Cup playoffs are here and begin at Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York, for The Northern Trust. The top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup points will compete this week, and then the field will narrow down to 100 golfers for next week’s Dell Technologies Championship. The field will be 70 for the BMW Championship, and then the final 30 will compete at the Tour Championship for first place and a prize of $10 million. These golfers are motivated in terms of both pride and finances; for reference, here’s how much the winner made in 2017 for the four major events:
- The Masters: $1.98 million
- U.S. Open: $2.16 million
- British Open: $1.85 million
- PGA Championship: $1.89 million
These guys are incentivized to play well over the next four weeks.
The Course
Glen Oaks has never hosted a PGA Tour event before, as noted by Kelly McCann in his course breakdown. Here are the high-level data points: It is a Par 70 that plays at 7,346 yards with just two Par 5s. That means it will be long, although with its similarities to Augusta National and Bethpage Black (because of designers, grass type, etc.), players will also need a healthy dose of accuracy. There are numerous bunkers, and players will need to place approach shots in specific areas to have a shot at making birdies.
Distance plus accuracy: I know that doesn’t particularly help. Sometimes courses have no fit with metrics and players because they are neither long nor challenging to approach greens. And sometimes there are courses where every metric fits: These are intended to highlight the best players in the world — those who have enough distance to deal with the long Par 4s but also who can hit their irons to specific spots. It will be important to take advantage of pricing discrepancies to roster as much talent as possible.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson is perhaps the most intriguing player in the field. On yesterday’s PGA Flex podcast, Colin Davy surmised that of the studs — the guys in the $9,000-$11,000 range — DJ could have some of the lowest ownership given his up-and-down play since his mysterious withdrawal from the Masters in April. If that’s the case, he’s intriguing in guaranteed prize pools; he’s still the world No. 1. Admittedly, he’s been awful as a daily fantasy asset over the past several months, averaging a -13.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 20 percent Consistency Rating:
But the long-term results are still there: DJ’s 67.8 Long-Term (LT) Adjusted Round Score is the best mark in the field, and his -1.4 average adjusted strokes on Par 4s — an important metric this week — is easily tops among all golfers. His recent results haven’t been awful — his 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score over his last four tournaments is tied for 14th, so there’s a chance that his 2017 struggles are overstated. When he’s 100 percent, he’s what this course demands: His 314.9-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) is second in the field, and his 68.1 LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) is also excellent. Our Models currently have him projected for 13-16 percent ownership, which is tied with Rickie Fowler (who is the second-highest salaried golfer at $11,300) and Justin Thomas (who just won the PGA Championship).
Shortly after the event starts, Pro subscribers can review ownership trends in our DFS Ownership Dashboard and analyze exposure patterns in the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
A solid case can be made for just about any of the top-level golfers, and this is probably the first week that statement could be made given the up-and-down play of these guys this year. Rory McIlroy is a course-fit ruiner like DJ, Hideki Matsuyama is now the world No. 2 after a couple incredible finishes, Jordan Spieth is just weeks away from taking home the British, and even Henrik Stenson is seemingly back after posting a whopping 146.0 DraftKings points and winning last week’s Wyndham Championship. Some guys will be lower-owned than others, but there’s not a huge edge with any of these guys. You will need the winner in your lineup, but ownership rates more than golfer-specific projections will likely be the lens through which the studs should be viewed this week.
Two guys who should be chalky are Brooks Koepka and Paul Casey; they’re priced at just $9,100 and $9,000 despite dominating as DFS assets this season. Brooks is coming off yet another solid performance at the PGA Championship, posting a 69 on Sunday to finish 13th, and he now has averaged a +16.23 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 events:
Brooks has the length off the tee to handle this course — he owns a LT DD of 305.0 yards — and his 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score is one of the best marks in the field. His Recent GIR of 56.5 percent and Recent Driving Accuracy (DA) of 51.2 percent are mildly concerning, but he’s just $9,100 despite being one of the best golfers this year. Casey is in a similar spot, and he’s been even more valuable as a DFS asset, although he has come with lower salaries than Brooks:
It seems like Casey has been a no-brainer cash-game play just about every week for years now, and his 67.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is third in the field behind Matsuyama’s and Spieth’s marks. He and Brooks should be a popular pair. Fading them in tournaments in favor of a stars-and-scrubs lineup approach could pay dividends.
The Value Plays
Tony Finau is seemingly always mispriced according to his Vegas odds to win, and that’s true again this week: His 1.3 percent current odds are higher than the odds of most players around his $7,300 salary range. He should be at least somewhat popular, and he certainly has the distance off the tee to put himself in position for valuable birdie opportunities: His 310.0-yard LT DD is the seventh-highest mark in the field. He’s been solid of late, posting a +14.09 Plus/Minus with a 90 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 tournaments. He has a 68.3 Recent Adj Rd Score and is tied for the most DraftKings Pro Trends with 11.
There are numerous excellent options in the $6,000 range or the low-$7,000 range, and we spend quite a bit of time going over them on the Flex podcast. Instead of rehashing those, let’s focus on the mid-$7,000 range. Charley Hoffman should be a popular cash-game play with his ridiculous recent form. He’s posted a 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score, and he’s averaged a silly +24.34 Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 tournaments. He’s long off the tee, as evidenced by his 310.6-yard Recent DD, and his 68.6 Recent GIR shows that he’s capable of getting within birdie-striking distance by hitting greens. He has averaged -3.8 adjusted strokes on Par 4s along with 18.0 birdies per tournament over his last five events. Those marks won’t go unnoticed by the public, but they’re also hard to fade at $7,900: He’s currently projected for 13-16 percent ownership, although that could go up as we get closer to the tournament.
The field is loaded. It was just a month or so ago that Colin gave his #taek that Francesco Molinari was a top-five golfer at the moment. That apparently jinxed him, but he was able to shake it off at the PGA Championship, shooting a brilliant 67 on Sunday to move into second place behind Thomas. His 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score is one of the best marks in the field, and he’s only $7,600. Another guy is Patrick Cantlay. He’s been a bit of a Model breaker because of his elite data yet small sample. He’s played in only nine events over the past year, but his marks have stayed impressive: He owns a 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score, which is better than the marks of Koepka, Molinari, and Jon Rahm. It’s tied with Fowler’s, who again is the second-highest salaried player at $11,300. Cantlay has a +22.70 Plus/Minus over his last eight tournaments, and his average of 15.8 birdies per tournament is the third-best mark in the field, tied with Rory’s. The former No. 1 world amateur is projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Xander Schauffele: Another up-and-comer, he owns an excellent -0.4 average adjusted strokes on Par 4s, which is the seventh-best mark in the field. He has the distance off the tee (301.5-yard LT DD) to keep up with the top dogs, and his 68.3 LT GIR is just fine, too.
Jon Rahm: He’s not getting a ton of buzz, possibly because he’s priced right below the chalky Brooks and Casey at $8,900: He’s projected for ‘only’ 13-16 percent ownership. He’s one of the most talented golfers in the world and has the capability to win if he’s at the top of his game. His -0.5 average adjusted strokes on Par 4s is elite, although he’s recently been awful in that regard, posting a +4.0 mark over the past three tournaments. That should regress back to the mean at some point; it could be this week.
Lucas Glover: He’s been one of the best ball-strikers on tour this year, as evidenced by his elite 69.4 LT GIR — the fifth-best mark in the field. He’s been even better in the short term, posting a Recent GIR of 72.2 percent, and he hasn’t had to sacrifice distance, averaging 307.9 yards off the tee over his last three events. He’s averaged 15.7 birdies per tournament over the same time period, and he’s coming off four straight days below 70 at the Wyndham.
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Good luck this week!
