The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Memorial Tournament will bring a fun, strong field, as eight of the top-10 golfers in the Official Golf World Rankings will be competing, along with 22 players inside the top 30 of the FedEx Cup Standings.
The Course
As always, I back-tested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 55.97 DraftKings points and a +5.68 Plus/Minus with a 59.4% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +7.12
- Recent Par-3 Scoring: +6.00
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +5.83
- Course Driving Accuracy: +4.86
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +4.65
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +4.16
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +3.14
- Course Putts Per Round: +3.12
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.99
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.97
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +2.72
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.58
- Recent Missed Cuts: +2.55
- Long-Term Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament: +2.13
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament: +2.13
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +1.91
- Course Birdies: +1.30
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +0.89
- Course Count: +0.64
- Long-Term Adjusted Bogeys Per Tournament: +0.40
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +0.27
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.23
Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par-72, 7,392-yard course designed by Jack Nicklaus. Looking at the metrics that back-tested well here, we have a little bit of everything — par-3, par-4, and par-5 scoring, along with Recent GIR, all back-tested within the top five. Long hitters have also been rewarded here, but you don’t want to blindly select the big sticks, as all three driving accuracy metrics back-tested favorably at Muirfield Village as well. Overall, it looks like targeting balanced golfers will be the safe approach this week.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,300) checks in with the highest salary and is tied with Jason Day ($11,100) for the highest odds (7.7%) to win this week. DJ and Day each check most of the boxes we are looking for at Muirfield. Most notably, DJ is one of three golfers who has gained strokes on par-3s, par-4s, and par-5s over the past 75 weeks. His 9% missed cut rate is also among the best marks in the field. The only concerns with DJ and Day are their driving accuracy numbers. Both golfers are 57% or below in LT DA, and Day’s Recent DA is an atrocious 53.6%. When DJ missed the cut at this course in 2017, he hit just 46% of fairways and 58% of GIR, but in his third-place finish in 2016, he hit 63% of fairways and an outstanding 76% of GIR. This just goes to show how unforgiving this course can be if you’re missing greens and/or fairways.
Rory McIlroy ($10,800) is a similar fit to DJ and Day. Rory is in decent form of late, sporting a 68.4 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Recent Adj Rd Score) and hitting 69.9% of GIR. However, like DJ and Day, Rory can struggle to hit fairways. Over the past 75 weeks, Rory has hit just 55.9% of fairways, and over the past six weeks he’s been even worse, hitting 49.4% of fairways.
Among the golfers priced $10,000 or above, Justin Rose ($10,600) is likely the best overall fit. He’s in excellent recent form, sporting an outstanding 67.2 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 73% of GIR and 69.7% of fairways over the past six weeks. Further, within the same time frame, he’s crushing par-4s (-8.5 average adjusted strokes) and par-5s (-8.0 average adjusted strokes). Rose hasn’t played this course in two years, but since 2009, he has either finished inside the top nine or missed the cut:
Rose, Rory, and Justin Thomas ($10,300) all have 6.7% odds to win this tournament, and Thomas rounds out the golfers who cost at least $10,000. Thomas is one of the best par-4 scorers on tour, averaging -2.2 average adjusted strokes over the past 75 weeks, which is the third-best mark in the field. Like some of the other top-priced golfers, the primary knock is his driving accuracy: He’s hit just 55.4% of fairways over the past 75 weeks and 50.9% over the past six weeks. Thomas’ Recent GIR (64.6%) has been serviceable, but his Recent Scrambling (70.6%) and Recent Putts Per Round (27.9) scores are what have helped him to three top-22 finishes since The Masters.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Over the past 75 weeks, Patrick Cantlay ($7,400) is sporting the seventh-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.6), but he’s priced as the 37th-most expensive golfer. Cantlay is a solid fit here with his 68.5% LT GIR, 7% missed cut rate, and 60.6% of fairways hit. In the short term, he has regressed some: He missed the cut at Forth Worth and has hit just 61.1% of GIR and 51.8% of fairways over the past six weeks.
Kyle Stanley ($7,600) finished sixth at Muirfield last year and has two top-seven finishes here. Overall, he has the balanced game we’re looking for, hitting 68.1% of GIR and 72.3% of fairways, along with gaining strokes on par-4s and par-5s over the past six weeks. The primary concern with Stanley is his putting (30 LT PPR). His sixth-place finish in 2017 was largely due to his absurd 25.5 PPR along with the 75% of the fairways he hit.
Over the past six weeks, Ryan Moore ($7,500) is sporting a solid 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 70.8% of GIR and 69.4% of fairways. While most of his metrics are quite balanced, Moore can tend to struggle on par-4s, averaging +1.8 average adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks. Still, he fits this course very well.
Charles Howell III ($7,600) has been playing well of late with an excellent 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score. Over the past six weeks, he’s crushing par-4s (-3.7 average adjusted strokes) and par-5s (-5.7 average adjusted strokes). Within the same time frame, Howell is hitting 69% of GIR and fairways, while averaging just 28.7 PPR. Even when he has missed the green, Howell has done a great job at saving the hole with his scrambling (74.5% Recent SC).
The Bump and Run
Jordan Spieth‘s price has decreased $1,900 compared to last week. He hasn’t been priced below $10,000 since September of 2014. Overall, he boasts the second-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.1) in the field and is sitting with favorable 5.3% odds to win. Moreover, he should be an excellent fit for this course with his balanced game. Over the past 75 weeks, he’s averaging a field-best -3.1 average adjusted strokes on par-4s and a stellar -4.7 average adjusted strokes on par-5s. Spieth has finished outside the top 20 in each of his past three tournaments, but he’s still hitting an outstanding amount of GIR (74.1%) and fairways (64.3%). This could be a bounce-back spot for Spieth, who has yet to miss a cut at Muirfield.
When GIR and driving accuracy play a role, it’s hard not to consider Henrik Stenson ($9,200). He’s a GIR machine with his 83.3% Recent GIR and 76.8% Recent DA over the past six weeks. Over Stenson’s past four tournaments, he’s finished inside the top six in three of them. Other than the lack of distance off the tee, Stenson is a solid fit for Muirfield.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,400) is the poster boy of consistency, averaging a +22.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 90% Consistency over his past 10 tournaments. Grillo has been smashing over the past six weeks with a 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score while gaining strokes on par-3s (-1.7), par-4s (-3.7), and par-5s (-4.0).
Matt Kuchar ($8,500) has very similar metrics to Grillo, and he has historically dominated at Muirfield Village:
Branden Grace ($8,800) finished third at the Byron Nelson Championship a few weeks ago and fifth at the BMW PGA Championship just last week. He’s hitting an absurd amount of greens over the past six weeks (75.9% of GIR), and more importantly, he’s been able to capitalize on his birdie opportunities, averaging a stellar 19 per tournament.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Justin Rose
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
