The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
Finally, The Masters is officially here! Did I mention I’ll be there for it? Anyway, that doesn’t matter (it sort of does). Let’s get right to it.
The Course
The Masters is a different breed of tournament: The top-50 players, ties, and any player within 10 shots of the leader after 36 holes will advance. Augusta National is a par-72, 7,435-yard course. There isn’t really any rough on this course, but if you spray your tee shots, you’ll end up in the trees. Course history is important at Augusta, as their greens have some odd breaks to them.
As always, I backtested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Augusta National. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 43.89 DraftKings points and a -7.75 Plus/Minus with a 43.9 percent Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Course GIR: +8.46
- Recent GIR: +6.81
- Recent Par 4 Scoring: +6.57
- Long-Term Par 5 Scoring: +6.28
- Recent Birdies: +6.04
- Long-Term Birdies: +4.73
- Recent Eagles: +4.53
- Recent Putts Per Round: +4.42
- Long-Term Eagles: +4.37
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +3.85
- Long-Term Bogeys: +3.7
- Long-Term Par 3 Scoring: +3.48
- Long-Term Par 4 Scoring: +3.24
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +3.21
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +2.84
- Recent Bogeys: +2.78
- Recent Driving Distance: +2.64
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +2.26
- Recent Par 3 Scoring: +2.18
- Course Missed Cuts: +1.99
- Long-Term GIR: +1.92
- Long-Term Missed Cuts: +1.88
- Course Driving Distance: +1.53
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +1.51
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.25
- Recent Missed Cuts: +1.09
- Course Count: +1.04
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +0.62
- Recent Scrambling: +0.46
We don’t need metrics to tell us that course history is important at Augusta, but three different course-specific metrics correlate with positive Plus/Minus marks here, with Course GIR leading the way with a +8.46 Plus/Minus. I think you’ll be in excellent shape this week if you can roster guys who have solid course history and can take advantage of Par 5s, as LT Par 5 scoring and LT Eagles correlate well at this historic track. Not only that, but you’ll need stout ball-strikers as well since Course and Recent GIR are sitting atop the Plus/Minus categories.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,500) is an obvious fit for this course and has back-to-back top-six finishes at Augusta in the past two years. He’s one of the longest drivers on tour with a LT Driving Distance (DD) of 314.6 yards, and he’s an excellent ball-striker with a 69.8% LT GIR. DJ’s average adjusted strokes on Par 4s and Par 5s ranks inside the top five compared to the field, and his 16.0 LT Birdies per round trails the marks of only three other golfers. Pricing is soft and it’s not difficult to fit in DJ and his 8.3% implied odds to win (third-best). That said, you could pay $1,500 less for Rory McIlroy ($9,900), who currently is tied for highest odds to win (9.1%). Rory got off to a rocky start to the season, but he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational a few weeks ago. He’s quite familiar with Augusta, as he’s finished seventh, 10th, fourth, and eighth over his past four starts.
Justin Thomas ($10,800) trails only DJ in salary and is sporting a LT Adj Rd Score of 68.2 — the third-best mark in the field. He’s long off the tee with a 310-yard LT DD, and he leads the field in LT Eagles per round. Thomas has played some of his best golf this season with three top-10 finishes in his past three tournaments, but he does have iffy history: He’s played Augusta twice in his career, finishing 22nd and 39th.
Jordan Spieth ($10,800) is in play as well because he is tied for the best LT Adj Rd Score with DJ (68.0) and has exceptional course history at Augusta:
Historically, Spieth has averaged 98.13 DraftKings points per tournament with a +21.3 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating at the Masters. In his past four appearances at Augusta, Spieth has finished 11th, second, first, and second. He’s tied for the highest odds to win (9.1%) with Rory and bounced back last week at Houston, finishing in third place after missing the cut at Valspar.
This field is loaded with the best golfers in the world, so this section could go on for days… Jason Day ($9,800), Jon Rahm ($9,300) and Justin Rose ($9,200) all come with discounts relative to the top-priced guys. All three golfers have a LT DD over 300 yards, and their LT Adj Rd Scores are 68.7 or better. Rose has finished second in this tournament twice in the past three years, and his 70.3% LT GIR is outstanding. He’s my pick to win this week.
Tiger Woods‘ ($10,000) odds have dropped down to 7.7%, which is still the fifth-highest mark. He obviously knows Augusta, as he has won here four times along with 13 top-10 finishes. Tiger is in excellent form with a 67.3 Recent Adjusted Round Score and is driving well with a Recent Driving Distance of 307.3 yards. He’s got the course history and recent form to contend at this tournament.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,600) doesn’t have much course history here. He played it once in 2012 and finished in 47th when he was 20 years old. Cantlay is very cheap and has the ninth-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.5) compared to the field. Outside of the course history, Cantlay does fit the course with a LT DD of 300.2 yards, and he’s hit 69.5% of GIR. He also hasn’t missed a cut in his past 21 tournaments.
Henrik Stenson ($7,800) isn’t as long off the tee as the other guys (LT DD of 289.8 yards), but his 71.2% LT GIR is among the best in the field. Stenson also has an excellent LT Adj Rd Score of 68.7. He missed the cut in 2017, but before that finished inside the top-25 in his four prior outings. That said, his best finish in his past five here has been 18th; he hasn’t shown a top-level ceiling at Augusta so far. Still, for $7,800, Stenson’s talent level doesn’t match his price.
Matt Kuchar ($7,600) is another guy who doesn’t fit the mold of a long hitter (LT DD of 286.1 yards), but due to the strong field he’s around $1,000 cheaper than he usually is. Kuchar owns the 16th-best LT Adj Rd Score of 68.8 along with excellent course history here. He finished fourth in 2017 and has missed the cut once in his 11 appearances.
The Bump and Run
Paul Casey ($8,800) easily could’ve been in the stud category considering he has the third-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.1), but he’s the 11th-most expensive golfer. He’s an excellent ball-striker, as he has hit 70% of GIR over the past 75 weeks and should be able to capitalize on Par 5s; he’s averaged -5 strokes on Par 5s over the past 75 weeks. Casey has missed just 3% of cuts in his past 31 tournaments and has finished sixth, fourth, and sixth at Augusta in his past three appearances.
Phil Mickelson ($9,500) has been playing excellent golf of late with his 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score while hitting 72.9% GIR during that span. He has missed the cut every other year here since 2014 but has excellent overall history with 15 top-10 finishes, 11 top-fives, and three wins in 25 appearances.
Bubba Watson ($8,700) is another former champion who has the distance (LT DD of 306.8 yards) to contend. His 64.2% LT GIR is a bit below the marks of some of the other guys at the top of the field, but he’s been hitting it well of late, nailing 72.4% GIR over his past three tournaments.
Sergio Garcia ($8,600) will work on defending his 2017 title, and he’s another bargain for just $8,600. He’s sporting a LT DD of 302.2 yards and is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, as he’s hit 71.9% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. Not to mention he has missed just 6% of cuts in his past 31 tournaments, and his 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is ninth-best in the field.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) has played Augusta just once (2017) and missed the cut, but he does fit this course well, hitting 74.2% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. His Recent DD of 302.6 yards shows he can capitalize on Par 5s. Fleetwood is certainly worth a look with his sixth-best Recent Adj Rd Score (67.9).
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400) is difficult not to consider with his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score, 301.2-yard LT DD, and 69.2% LT GIR. It’s hard to put a lot of stock into his recent metrics given his abbreviated season due to injury. Matsuyama is capable of capitalizing on the long holes, as evidenced by his -5.8 average adjusted strokes on Par 5s over the past 75 weeks. He also has solid course history, making the cut in five of six appearances with three top-12s in the past three years. Hideki may be undervalued given his recent injury history.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Justin Rose
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
