The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Asian swing has ended, and we are back to full-field events with a 36-hole cut. The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada, was won last year by 47-year-old Rod Pampling, thanks in part to an awesome 11-under par 60 in the opening round. What happens in Vegas may stay in Vegas, but the secret is out on first-time winners in Sin City: Ten of the last 15 winners of this event— including a streak of six straight — have hit their first jackpot in Vegas.
The Course
TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 course playing at 7,255 yards at slight elevation (so it plays a bit shorter than the yardage) with Bentgrass greens; it has been the solo host of this event since 2008. Golfers who can find the fairways and hit Greens In Regulation can make a ton of birdies here; the average winning score over the past five years has been nearly 21 strokes under par.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable at this track. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at TPC Summerlin. Historically, the course has yielded averages of 57.15 points and a +7.72 Plus/Minus with 52.3 percent Consistency to the field.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +10.47
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +8.93
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +9.69
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): +8.51
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +9.85
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +9.43
- Long-Term Adjusted Bogeys Per Tournament (Adj Bogey Avg): +9.60
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +7.97
- Recent GIR: +9.28
- Recent DD: +9.08
- Recent DA: +7.82
- Recent SC: +8.07
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +9.33
- Adjusted Round Differential: +11.61
- Adjusted Birdie Differential: +10.46
As you can see, ranking in the top quintile of virtually any Long-Term or Recent metric (other than putting) has been very valuable here at TPC Summerlin. Two of our Differential metrics (Adjusted Round and Adjusted Birdie) have been extremely valuable and are worth looking into this week as well.
The Studs
One of three players to arrive straight outta Compton China, Tony Finau ($11,700) is the highest-priced player in the field and currently has the best odds to win (6.7 percent). Finau arrives at this event in very good form with four finishes of 11th or better in his last five starts; his 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is tops among golfers with more than two starts in the past six weeks. Finau is tied for second overall with his 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score and ranks fifth with his 14.4 LT Adj Bird Avg. Finau has made the cut in all three of his attempts at TPC Summerlin and has a seventh-place finish on his resume here: His 68.9 Course Adjusted Round Score ranks second among golfers with more than one start. Finau was born in Salt Lake City, Utah, and won the Utah State Amateur Championship; he is likely very comfortable on courses in this part of the country.
Finau was owned at nearly 45 percent last week, and we have him projected as chalk again this week. You can check out player exposure and much more with our amazing PGA Contests Dashboard.
Webb Simpson ($11,000) won this event in 2013 with a course record-tying 24-under par score, and he has finished fourth here twice: His 68.4 Course Adj Rd Score ranks first among all golfers with more than one start at TPC Summerlin. Simpson is tied for second in the field with his 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score, and he has top-20 marks in both LT SC percentage (61.1 percent) and LT Adj Bird Avg (13.3). Simpson finished 13th at the season-ending Tour Championship and was 17th in his only start this season at the Safeway Open.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
This week, James Hahn ($7,000) has the 17th-best LT Adj Rd Score and is jumping off the page at his salary. Although Hahn didn’t play great in his two events on the Asian swing, where he finished 40th at the CJ Cup and 28th at the CIMB Classic, he did finish 15th at this event last season. Hahn hits both fairways (62.6 LT DA percentage) and greens (65.0 GIR percentage) at an above-average rate, so his game sets up well for this course.
Recent Web.com Tour graduate, Stephan Jaeger ($6,900) finished 30th at the Safeway Open in his first start this season on the PGA Tour and was T51 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Jaeger compiled three victories in his time on the Web.com Tour and is probably best known for his round of 58 shot at the 2016 Ellie Mae Classic. He arrives at this event with the third-best Recent GIR percentage (78.7 percent) in the field.
Aaron Wise ($6,900) also graduated from the Web.com Tour this season and finished T25 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Wise locked up his PGA Tour card with a wire-to-wire victory at the Air Capital Classic last June. He played in several PGA Tour events in 2016 and shot a 63 at the John Deere Classic, where he finished 16th before notching his career-best PGA Tour finish (T-10) here at TPC Summerlin last year.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Anirban Lahiri ($10,300): This is a hefty price for Anirban, but he does have three top-10 finishes in his most recent three tournaments. Lahiri is tied atop the field with his 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score and tied for sixth with his impressive 18.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. His 85.8 fantasy points per tournament (PPT) mark over the last month ranks fourth in the field.
Luke List ($8,300): List is tied for eighth in the field with his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score and tied for second with his 19.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. List will win an event on Tour sooner or later — why not at the home of first-time winners? His 85.7 PPT ranks fifth in this field, and he’s posted a ridiculous +25.89 Plus/Minus over the past month.
