Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina, hosts this week’s RBC Heritage. Harbour Town is an often wind-whipped tree-lined track that requires accuracy off the tee to give golfers a shot at hitting the green.
Unlike the overwhelming majority of PGA Tour venues, Harbour Town privileges Long-Term Driving Accuracy (LT DA). Golfers in the top quintile of LT DA have historically generated a +3.94 Plus/Minus on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Greens in Regulation (GIR), Scrambling (SC), Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg), and DA are the metrics we will concentrate on this week.
The Favorites
Hole-In-One Master
Matt Kuchar caused chaos across DraftKings leaderboards with his Sunday charge and ace on the 16th hole, ultimately finishing T4 at Augusta last week. According to our Player Models, Kuchar trails only Patrick Cantlay with his 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score (and Cantlay’s LT metrics are based on just three tournaments). Kuchar leads the field with his 6.7 percent odds to win.
Kuchar is accurate off the tee (65.5 percent LT DA), hits a lot of greens (67.5 percent LT GIR), and is an excellent scrambler (60.2 percent LT SC), so he fits the Harbour Town mold.
Kuuuuuuuch has three straight top-10 finishes here, including a win in 2014. He’s likely to have double-digit ownership, which Pro subscribers can review in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after the tournament starts.
Lord Brandt of House Snedeker
Brandt Snedeker is another past winner of this event (2011), but he has failed to crack the top 25 in his four most recent trips here, missing the cut last year.
Snedeker’s 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th, but his 59.7 percent LT DA leaves a lot to be desired. That said, Snedeker is playing well coming into this event: Both his 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score and his 17.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg rank sixth overall.
Brandt has a top-three salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Branden Grace: Last year’s Harbour Town champion hasn’t finished worse than seventh in two trips here. His 67.0 Course Adj Rd Score is the best in the field, and his 13.6 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks 18th. Grace has been shaky this season, but he finished 27th at the Masters last week.
Russell Henley: It’s virtually impossible to ignore Henley’s current form: His 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score is second overall. He has a Recent DA of 70.4 percent, a 69.1 percent Recent GIR, and a whopping 17.8 Recent Adj Bird Avg, good for fourth in the field. Henley finished 23rd here in 2016 and sixth in 2013, but he also missed two cuts in 2014 and 2015.
Kevin Kisner: Kisner’s 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score ranks 10th, and his 13.5 LT Adj Bird Avg is 19th overall. Kisner has four top-25 finishes in seven starts at stroke play events this season: His 67.7 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for third. Kisner lost in a playoff here in 2015.
Russell Knox: Knox has been brutal lately with four missed cuts in his last five stroke play events, but his game sets up perfectly for Harbour Town. His 68.8 percent LT DA is tied for sixth, his 68.0 percent LT GIR is 26th, and his 13.7 LT Adj Bird Avg is 16th overall. Knox was a runner-up last year and hasn’t finished worse than 18th here in three trips. Golfers with comparable LT metrics have crushed their salary-based expectations at Harbour Town:
Jim Furyk: Quite simply, Furyk is a Harbour Town freak. He has two wins and two additional top-10 finishes here in six trips since 2010. Furyk’s 69.9 percent LT DA is third in the field, and his 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th.
Francesco Molinari: Molinari’s 68.3 LT DA ranks seventh, his 14.4 LT Adj Bird Avg is sixth, and his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score is second overall. Molinari has a missed cut and a 45th-place finish here in two trips, but his game suits the course and he is playing well this season: His 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh in the field.
Ryan Blaum: Blaum’s 69.8 percent LT GIR is 10th, his 64.9 LT DA percentage is 29th, and his 14.3 LT Adj Bird Avg is eighth overall. Blaum has made four straight cuts on the PGA Tour and is a viable value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel as one of the least expensive golfers in the field.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve modified slightly. A four-time runner-up at Harbour Town, Luke Donald is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Donald has five top-three performances in his seven last stops at Harbour Town, and his 67.9 Course Adj Rd Score is the best among golfers with at least three starts at this course. Donald has a missed cut and a 69th-place finish in his last two starts, but he has a chance to cure what ails him at Harbour Town this week.
Humpnostication
Euro players seemingly go overlooked and underowned every slate, but Matthew Fitzpatrick deserves attention this week. He’s been playing well on the PGA Tour this season with a 16th-place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship followed by 13th- and 32nd-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Masters. Fitzpatrick’s 69.8 LT GIR percentage is tied for 10th, his 65.3 percent LT DA is 26th, and his 16.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is 10th among golfers with more than one start the past six weeks. Throw some Coors Lights on Fitz and thank me later. (Metaphorically.)
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Good luck this week!
