The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The current format and rotation of the CareerBuilder Challenge has existed since 2016. All golfers play the first three rounds at three different courses — TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club — to see who survives the 54-hole cut and returns to the Stadium Course for the fourth and final round.
The Course
Like the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, two of the CareerBuilder Challenge’s four rounds (including the championship round) are played at the Par 72, 7,113 yard, Pete Dye-designed PGA West Stadium Course, so looking into golfers who traditionally play well at Dye designs could prove to be beneficial.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable at this tournament. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at the three courses used for the CareerBuilder Challenge. Historically, the course rotation has yielded averages of 67.43 DraftKings points and a +17.07 Plus/Minus with 72.9 percent Consistency to the field. If you follow this piece weekly, you’ll notice those are very high averages across the board. Last year, only 11 of the 77 golfers to make the cut had a score above par during one of their first three rounds. Rostering golfers who earn DraftKings’ 5-point bonus by shooing all four rounds under 70 this week could be one of the keys to success.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +17.47 with 73.0 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +18.53 with 72.2 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +22.72 with 81.0 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): +13.75 with 59.6 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Putts per Round (Adj PPR): +18.99 with 82.8 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +17.04 with 74.5 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +23.28 with 73.5 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +21.81 with 79.0 percent Consistency
- Recent GIR: +16.80 with 71.0 percent Consistency
- Recent DD: +20.18 with 75.4 percent Consistency
- Recent DA: +11.88 with 62.5 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj PPR: +19.48 with 80.6 percent Consistency
- Recent SC: +18.58 with 73.1 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +23.70 with 80.0 percent Consistency
Some takeaways: Driving Distance has provided a higher return in terms of Plus/Minus with much greater Consistency than Driving Accuracy. Despite typically being a noisy metric, players in the top 20 percent of Adj PPR consistently met or exceeded their salary-based expectations in this tournament. And being in good form has traditionally been slightly more important than being one of the top longterm golfers in the field.
The Studs
Jon Rahm ($11,800) is currently the No.1 rated player in our Recent Performance Model and has the best odds (10.0 percent) to win the tournament. Rahm’s 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score and 15.9 LT Adj Bird Avg both lead the field this week and his 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score is second to only James Hahn. Even with the highest salary in the field, it’s likely that Rahm-GOAT will be owned at a rate similar to the 28.8 percent average ownership he had at the Tournament of Champions earlier this month. You can check out player exposure and much more with our PGA Contests Dashboard. And new this week: our very swag Entries Manager in Player Models.
Brian Harman ($11,500) may be the hottest golfer on the planet right now: He’s finished no worse than fourth in his two tournaments in 2018 and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in his last five tournaments. Harman is also Hump’s pick to win, which means he’ll likely shoot an 85 on Thursday and withdraw from the tournament. Harman is tied for 10th with his 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score, while his 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score and 79.2 Recent GIR percentage both lead the field among golfers with more than one start in the past six weeks. Golfers with comparable salaries and Recent metrics have previously produced an average of 79.59 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +4.37 Plus/Minus and 58.1 percent Consistency Rating.
Patrick Reed ($11,100) last played in the DP World Tour Championship on the European Tour in November of last year, where he finished 10th. He was last seen on the PGA Tour missing the cut at the OHL Classic but Reed has played well at Pete Dye designs recently and he finished 12th at this tournament last year. Reed is tied for sixth with his 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score and tied for seventh with his 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg.
Kevin Kisner ($10,400) will likely be the lowest-owned player among golfers with a salary of $10,000 or more, making him a great pivot play off guys like Rahm and Harman. Kisner has made the cut in his last 12 events, his 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score ranks fourth in this field, and he is tied for 10th with his 14.0 LT Adj Bird Avg.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
Stewart Cink ($7,300) is tied for 10th in the field with his 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score, but his salary is $4,300 less than Harman, who shares the same score. Cink has missed the cut at this event in each of the past two seasons (in which the same course rotation was used) but he has made the cut in six of his last seven events including last week, when he finished 32nd at the Sony Open. Cink’s 69.5 LT GIR percentage is tied for 14th and his 13.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 12th this week.
Lucas Glover ($7,500) typically plays well on Pete Dye courses and has made the cut at this event each of the past two years — his 69.0 Course Adj Rd Score ranks 16th among golfers who have played here twice since 2016. Glover is tied for sixth in the field with his 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score, but his salary is $3,600 less than Reed, who shares the same score.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Austin Cook ($8,700): Among golfers with more than one start the past six weeks, Cook is tied for fifth with his 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score and he is tied for fourth in that same group with his 19.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Cook won the RSM Classic in November and was 18th at last week’s Sony Open.
Adam Hadwin ($7,600): Hadwin shot a 59 here last year on his way to a runner-up finish. In 2016, he finished sixth and his 67.1 Course Adj Rd Score leads the field. Despite his recent course history and affordable salary, Hadwin appears to be flying under the radar this week.
Dominic Bozzelli ($6,800): The 216 golfers who have played this tournament with a DraftKings salary of $6,900 or less have averaged 63.19 PPT with a +15.64 Plus/Minus and 73.1 percent Consistency. Bozzelli made the cut at the Sony Open last week, shooting three rounds of 68 or better and he finished fifth at this event last year.
