This week the best golfers in the world have gathered in Austin, Texas, for the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play — but nobody cares.
Instead, degenerates professional analysts boneheads like me are analyzing the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages and Long-Term Driving Distances (LT DD) of non-household names like Brad Fritsch and other golfers I can’t remember, all of whom have gathered at the Coco Beach Golf and Country Club in Rio Grande, Puerto Rico, for this week’s Puerto Rico Open.
Four straight (and six of nine total) champions of this event have been first-time PGA Tour winners, including Tony Finau, who needed three playoff holes last year to get by Steve Marino.
With no golfer in the field ranked higher than No. 72 in the world, we’ll be concentrating on the best overall golfers (LT Adjusted Round Score) who arrive in good form (Recent Adj Rd Score) and are able to find the green consistently (GIR). As always, Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) is important, given the DraftKings scoring system.
The Big Three
The Trick Shot Artist
Wesley Bryan ($10,800) is the highest-ranked golfer in the field and has the highest (just 5.9 percent) odds to win. Per our Trends tool, golfers with similar salaries and odds to win have previously produced a modest +1.26 Plus/Minus with 57.0 percent Consistency:
Bryan’s 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied with three others atop this week’s field, his 14.0 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks fifth, and his 28.4 Adjusted Putts Per Round is third overall.
Bryan’s second-best 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score supports his excellent form: He has two top-five and one top-10 finishes in his last four tournaments on the PGA Tour. Bryan has averaged 80.5 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) in his last five tournaments.
The Irish Veteran
Many people consider Mayakoba to be a correlated course because of its proximity to the sea shore and paspalum greens. Graeme McDowell ($10,300) won there in 2015. Beginning with his 2016 start at Mayakoba, McDowell has compiled seven straight made cuts with six finishes in the top 30. His 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth, and his 15.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for eighth in the field.
McDowell’s 70.0 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth, his 12.3 LT Adj Bird Avg is 23rd, and his 5.3 percent odds to win are tied for second this week.
The Winless Canadian
Coco Beach has been a hot spot for first-time winners on the PGA Tour, and there are few better first-time candidates than Graham DeLaet ($10,600) who currently has one of the highest ratings in the CSURAM88 Player Model (where Pro subscribers can analyze all of the slate’s golfers).
DeLaet’s 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score is tied atop the field, his 67.7 percent LT GIR ranks 30th, and his 13.2 LT Adj Bird Avg is 11th. Prior to last week’s missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, DeLaet had played very well this season: His 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth overall.
DeLaet has not finished worse than 24th at this event in four attempts, including an 11th-place finish last year. His 69.8 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fourth among golfers who have made more than one start at this track.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Ian Poulter ($9,600): Poulter’s 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 16th, his 12.3 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks 23rd, and his 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is 10th in this field. Poulter hasn’t missed a cut since last November, and he finished third at Coco Beach last year.
JT Poston ($8,600): Poston’s 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 10th, his 70.4 LT GIR percentage is 12th, and his 14.9 LT Adj Bird Avg leads the field this week. He has three straight top-30 finishes on the PGA Tour in much stronger fields.
Brandon Hagy ($8,300): Hagy’s 318.4-yard LT DD leads the field this week, his 12.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 15th, and his 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for third overall. Hagy has three straight top-35 finishes on the PGA Tour, and he finished 16th at this event last year.
Andrew “Beef” Johnston ($7,900): Beef’s 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 16th, his 70.8 LT GIR percentage ranks eighth, and his 13.4 LT Adj Bird Avg is seventh. Plus his nickname is “Beef.”
Seamus Power ($7,300): Power’s 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 15th, his 69.2 percent LT GIR is 19th, and his 12.8 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 15th in this field. Power has made four of six cuts on the PGA Tour in 2017.
Trey Mullinax ($6,500): Mullinax not only has the #MarriageSwag going for him, but both his 312.8-yard LT DD and 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg rank third this week. As long as he doesn’t come home to his new wife speaking in a stupid English accent, he should be good to go. [Editor’s Note: It’s not stupid if someone pays him at least $500 to do it.]
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Don’t be scared: Boo Weekley ($7,300) is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal.
Weekley ripped off three straight top-10 finishes at Coco Beach from 2012 to 2015, including a third-place finish. He was 35th here last year and has never missed a cut in five attempts.
At the same time, Boo is kind of frightening: His 10.3 Adjusted Bogeys Per Tournament is higher than his 9.0 Adj Bird Avg over his last three starts.
Humpnostication
Last week Hump’s tummy-rumbles about Jason Day were just the side effects of bad burritos. This week the intestinal vibrations have landed me on J.J. Spaun, who had ninth- and fourth-place finishes at the Farmers Insurance and Phoenix Opens in much stronger fields. His 71.3 LT GIR percentage ranks fourth, and his 13.0 LT Adj Bird Avg is good enough for 13th overall. It’s f*cking Puerto Rico, y’all. Coors Lites are on the house.
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Good luck this week!
