The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
It’s party time in Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Last year’s raucous crowds totaled more than 650,000 rowdy golf fans trying to be among the 20,000 lucky enough to get a prime seat in the coliseum around the par-3 16th. Jon Rahm teed off in an Arizona State football jersey while Rickie Fowler handed out hats to the fans lining both sides of the craziest atmosphere in golf. Players like Fowler — who enjoy the very un-golf-like frat party — play well here, while others who can’t handle the pressure of impending boos for missing the green will crumble.
The Course
TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course — a 7,261-yard Par 71 course — will surrender low scores: Four rounds of 60 have been shot here since 1996, including two by Arizona State alum Phil Mickelson.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable here at the Phoenix Open. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at TPC Scottsdale. Historically, the course has yielded averages of 51.92 DraftKings points and a +0.98 Plus/Minus with 53.5 percent Consistency to the field. In case you missed it, a FantasyLabs subscriber (@JoeyBaccia) used this data to ship $10,820 on his $13 investment last week.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +2.87 with 56.3 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +7.56 with 59.2 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +3.37 with 58.9 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): -1.52 with 50.7 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Putts per Round (Adj PPR): +1.33 with 55.9 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +1.95 with 54.8 percent Consistency
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +7.87 with 64.7 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +5.17 with 61.8 percent Consistency
- Recent GIR: +0.62 with 56.3 percent Consistency
- Recent DD: +5.05 with 62.5 percent Consistency
- Recent DA: -1.39 with 50.7 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj PPR: +2.11 with 57.1 percent Consistency
- Recent SC: +3.45 with 58.4 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +3.73 with 60.9 percent Consistency
The Studs
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,500) has won the last two events here and each of them were won in a playoff. In four trips to Scottsdale, he has finished no worse than fourth and also has a runner-up finish in 2015 to go along with his two wins. Unsurprisingly, Matsuyama’s stellar 66.8 Course Adjusted Round Score leads the field.
You can hear the FantasyLabs golf guys discuss Matsuyama’s elite course history and potential ownership on The Daily Fantasy Flex podcast. Last year, Hideki checked in with 23 percent average ownership. The way things are looking this week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him approach 30 percent. You can check out player exposure and much more with our PGA Contests Dashboard. And be sure to utilize our new Entries Manager tool in Player Models.
Matsuyama ranks third in the field with his 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score, his 69.0 LT GIR percentage is 14th, and he’s second overall with his 16.6 LT Adj Bird Avg.
Jordan Spieth ($11,400) Spieth has the best LT Adj Rd Score (67.9) and LT Adj Bird Avg (16.7) in the field, and he is tied for 10th with his 69.8 LT GIR percentage. Spieth also owns Bryan Mears’ top Vegas Bargain Rating on DraftKings this week. In two trips to Scottsdale since 2015, Spieth has two top-10 finishes. Players with comparable salaries and LT metrics have previously produced an average of 76.39 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +0.63 Plus/Minus and 54.7 percent Consistency Rating.
Jon Rahm ($11,000) appeared to be on track to take down back to back tournaments on the PGA Tour after the first two rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open last week, but he shot rounds of 75 and 77 on the weekend to end up finishing a disappointing 28th. Even with the weekend letdown, Rahm’s 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is the best in the field among golfers with more than one start in the past six weeks and his 16.3 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks third overall. Rahm’s 68.0 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fifth among golfers with more than one start here.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
Francesco Molinari ($7,300): Molinari is back in the value play section again this week since he ranks eighth in the field with his 68.8 LT Adj Rd Score and ninth with his 14.6 LT Adj Bird Avg. Molinari wasn’t great last week but his 45th-place finish and +2.58 Plus/Minus didn’t kill any lineups either. He hasn’t played at Scottsdale since 2015, when he finished 22nd.
Chesson Hadley ($6,900): Hadley’s price is too low. His 71.3 LT GIR percentage ranks second overall and his 13.7 LT Adj Bird Avg is a top-25 score in the field. He has made both of his cuts on the PGA Tour in 2018 and his 69.1 Recent Adj Rd Avg ranks inside the top-30 of this field. Many of Hadley’s key metrics are comparable to Austin Cook, who is priced $1,400 higher than him this week.
Benjamin Silverman ($6,700): Silverman has the lowest salary among players who rank inside the top-20 percent for two key statistics. He is tied for sixth in the field with his 70.1 LT GIR percentage and tied for 13th with his 14.3 LT Adj Bird Avg. Silverman has made two straight cuts at 1.1 percent ownership or less.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Alexander Noren ($9,200): Noren looks like he might go overlooked this week despite his impressive Monday playoff loss to Jason Day last week. Noren is tied for 24th with his 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score, tied for 12th with his 69.1 LT GIR percentage, and his 14.0 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks inside the top-25.
Webb Simpson ($8,900): Simpson lost in a playoff at this event last year and has only one finish outside of the top-10 — when he finished 14th in 2016 — in his last five trips to TPC Scottsdale. Simpson finished fourth at the Sony Open and followed that up with three rounds under 70 at the Career Builder Challenge: He is averaging 102 DK PPT in 2018 and his 68.5 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 10th in the field.
