The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Course
The WGC-Mexico Championship features 65 players in a no-cut event that will take place in Mexico City at Club de Golf Chapultepec. It’s a Par 71, 7,300-yard course, where the balls carry farther than usual to due Mexico City’s elevation. Per ShotLink’s mapping data, the highest part of the course sits at 7,835 feet above sea level.
As always, I backtested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Chapultepec. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 65.74 DraftKings points and a -2.50 Plus/Minus with a 47.4 percent Consistency Rating to the field.
- Long Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +1.59 above baseline golfer with 51.5 percent Consistency
- Long Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +4.03 with 59.3 percent Consistency
- Long Term Driving Distance (DD): +3.29 with 57.9 percent Consistency
- Long Term Driving Accuracy (DA): +1.19 with 64.3 percent Consistency
- Long Term Scrambling (SC): -1.64 with 46.2 percent Consistency
- Long Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +1.64 with 51.1 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +0.67 with 51.9 percent Consistency
- Recent GIR: +6.58 with 65 percent Consistency
- Recent DD: +7.22 with 63.2 percent Consistency
- Recent DA: +0.22 with 58.3 percent Consistency
- Recent SC: -2.86 with 42.3 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: -2.43 with 46.4 percent Consistency
Looking at the metrics, it appears LT/Recent GIR and LT/Recent DD will be a few of the key metrics to pay close attention to, as they both offer high Plus/Minus marks and Consistency Ratings. All that said, it should be noted that we have just one year of data in our database for this course.
The Studs
Dustin Johnson ($11,900) is the defending champion at this tournament and checks in as the highest-priced golfer; he’s the favorite with a 14.3 percent implied win probability. Historically, golfers with at least 14 percent odds have averaged 90.99 DraftKings points with a +10.27 Plus/Minus and 68.1 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). DJ is off to a rather hot start this PGA season, securing three top-10 finishes in four tournaments. Even at his top-tier salary, over the past month, he’s sporting a whopping +31.27 Plus/Minus, which makes him a terrific cash-game play given both his massive ceiling and floor on a weekly basis.
He’s tied for first with a 68.0 LT Adj Rd Score, and he checks boxes in all the other key metrics, ranking second in LT DD and inside the top-15 in LT GIR. DJ will look to capitalize on the three Par 5s on this course, as he ranks inside the top-three in long term and recent average adjusted strokes on Par 5s.
Justin Thomas ($11,500) is fresh off a win at the ferocious PGA National and comes in with second-highest odds to win at 11.1 percent. Thomas found success at Chapultepec last year with a fifth-place finish and even got a hole-in-one on No. 13. More importantly, Thomas has crushed the 2018 PGA season with back-to-back top-10s, with his worst finish being a 22nd. He’s an excellent fit for this course, as he ranks inside the top-four in LT and Recent DD. Thomas leads the field with his 67.0 Recent Adj Rd Score, and his LT Adj Rd Score (68.2) and LT Adj Bird Avg (16.1) both rank inside the top-five.
All five golfers in this tournament priced $10,000 or higher finished inside the top-12 here last season. Jon Rahm ($10,600) finished third last year, and he has the third-highest odds to win this week. He’s been dominant in his short PGA career: In his 41 starts, he has 17 top-10s. Players with similar odds and salaries have averaged a +3.01 Plus/Minus and 82.10 DraftKings points (per our Trends tool). Rahm’s 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score ranks sixth, and his LT/Recent DD ranks inside the top-eight.
While Jordan Spieth‘s ($10,500) LT DD (296.1) ranks outside the top-20 in the field, his 68.0 LT Adj Rd Score is tied with DJ’s at the top. He’s excelled with a LT Adj Bird Avg of 16.3 (third-best), and his 7.6 LT Adj Bogeys per round is the third-lowest mark this week.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) is the cheapest among the top-tier golfers and is currently tied with DJ for the highest projected ownership at 21-25 percent. His LT Adj Rd Score (69.2) trails the other studs, but his 75.4 percent LT GIR leads the field, and his 68.5 percent LT DA sits second. Fleetwood is in excellent recent form with the third-best Recent Adj Rd Score (67.7), third-best Recent DA (69.2 percent), and sixth-best Recent GIR (72.2 percent).
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
Matt Kuchar and Marc Leishman ($7,600) saw their salaries decrease $600 and $500, respectively, over the past month. Their salaries are in the middle of the pack, and yet Leishman boasts a top-10 LT Adj Rd Score of 68.6; Kuchar is right behind at 68.7. The main concern with Leishman is his ball-striking of late: His Recent GIR (58.3 percent) and Recent DA (49.4 percent) marks are bottom-seven in this loaded field.
Gary Woodland ($7,600) may be a better option than Kuchar and Leishman at the same price point. His LT/Recent Adj Rd Scores and LT/Recent DD marks all rank in the 94th percentile. His ball-striking is excellent as well, as he’s in the top-11 in both LT and Recent GIR this week.
Brendan Steele ($7,500) has the 29th-highest salary but boasts a LT Adj Rd Score (69.1) that ranks 17th. All of these guys are at an interesting price point: If you roster any of the $11,000 golfers, your average salary remaining will be around the $7,500-$7,700 range. Steele should be a solid option for someone who ranks in the 90th percentile in LT/Recent Adj Rd Score, LT Adj Bird Avg, and Recent DD.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Ross Fisher ($8,200) finished third at this course last year and will likely be one of the chalkier options with 17-20 percent projected ownership. Players with a similar salary and Vegas odds (2.0 percent) have averaged 66.58 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +3.13 Plus/Minus and 58.9 Consistency Rating. Fisher’s LT and Recent GIR rank second in the field, and $8,200 isn’t too steep for a player whose LT/Recent Adj Rd Scores and LT Adj Eagles mark rank in the 95th percentile.
Two weeks ago, Paul Casey ($8,400) was priced at $10,200, but, with the strong and smaller field this week, he’s dropped $1,800. He’s priced as the 15th most-expensive golfer but has the 10th-best Vegas odds. Further, his LT Adj Rd Score of 68.1 trails only Spieth’s and DJ’s, ranking him in the 99th percentile in that regard.
Jason Dufner‘s ($7,500) LT DD, DA, and GIR marks don’t jump off the page, as they all rank in the 62nd to 69th percentile. Still, he is priced outside the top-30, his LT Adj Rd Score ranks in the 97th percentile, and his LT Adj Bird Avg is in the 84th percentile. He may be a potential low-owned pivot with projected ownership of five to eight percent. You can check out player exposure and much more with our PGA Contests Dashboard. And be sure to utilize our new Entries Manager tool in our PGA Models.
Good luck this week!
Photo via Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
