The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA Tour will leave the West Coast and head over to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, at the PGA National. The Honda Classic will feature 144 golfers, including the 2017 champion, Rickie Fowler, who will compete for a share of the $6.6 million purse.
The Course
PGA National is a 7,140-yard, par-70 course that features the infamous “Bear Trap” — a three-hole (Nos. 15-17) gauntlet that is one of the most difficult stretches on tour. Since 2007, the field is 2,973 over par on that stretch. Overall, PGA National is the 12th-hardest course on tour with an average score of 70.55.
I’ll be following Kelly McCann’s footsteps and backtesting various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at PGA National. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 42.53 DraftKings points and a -11.53 Plus/Minus with a 37.6 percent Consistency Rating to the field.
- Long Term Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score): +0.57 above baseline golfer with 40.3 percent Consistency
- Long Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +1.48 with 41.2 percent Consistency
- Long Term Driving Distance (DD): -1.09 with 37.5 percent Consistency
- Long Term Driving Accuracy (DA): -3.36 with 31 percent Consistency
- Long Term Adjusted Putts per Round (Adj PPR): -2.17 with 38.8 percent Consistency
- Long Term Scrambling (SC): -1.97 with 34.4 percent Consistency
- Long Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +0.59 with 42.1 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Rd Score: -0.01 with 39.7 percent Consistency
- Recent GIR: +1.62 with 43.1 percent Consistency
- Recent DD: -2.52 with 37.6 percent Consistency
- Recent DA: -2.82 with 27.1 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj PPR: -1.06 with 36.2 percent Consistency
- Recent SC: +1.47 with 41.1 percent Consistency
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +1.36 with 41.7 percent Consistency
As you can see given the Plus/Minus scores and Consistency Ratings, PGA National has been a troublesome course for pretty much all golfers. Long Term/Recent Adj Rd Score, LT/Recent GIR, LT/Recent Adj Bird Avg, and Recent SC are the only metrics that offer Consistency Ratings over 40 percent. If you look at our PGA Correlations Matrix, you can also see that those metrics correlate positively with Actual Points scored.
The Studs
Rickie Fowler ($11,700) comes in as the highest-priced golfer this week. He finished sixth in this tournament in 2016 and followed that up with a victory last season. He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2011 and currently has the highest odds at 11.1 percent. Since 2014, Fowler has averaged the second-most DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) at PGA National among golfers who have played this course at least three times.
Given his history and odds, he will likely garner high ownership. We currently have him projected for 17-20 percent ownership, and in Fowler’s 10 tournaments in which he’s had at least 10 percent odds to win, he’s averaged 23.1 percent ownership (per our Trends tool). While he’s the favorite to win, only Jack Nicklaus was able to successfully defend his title at the Honda Classic. Fowler leads the field with a LT Adj Rd Score of 68.0, and his 16.7 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks second. He also boasts the fifth-best recent average adjusted strokes on Par 4s; 12 of the holes here are Par 4s.
Rory McIlroy ($11,500) has the second-best (9.1 percent) odds to win this week. His recent form is respectable: He has two top-four finishes, a 20th place last week at the Genesis Open, and just one missed cut to start 2018. His LT and Recent Adj Rd Scores rank inside the top-seven, and his LT Adj Bird Avg is fourth-best. Rory’s 68.6 percent Recent SC ranks ninth in the field, and that stat has correlated well with this tournament in the past. He’ll likely be the lowest-owned among the top-tier golfers this week. You can check out player exposure and more with our PGA Contests Dashboard. And be sure to utilize our new Entries Manager tool in Player Models.
Justin Thomas ($11,300) is priced slightly behind Fowler and McIlroy, but he’s the only one of the top-three who hasn’t missed a cut yet this season; he hasn’t finished worse than 22nd this season. He’s coming into this tournament with the second-best LT and Recent Adj Rd Scores, not to mention his 69.4 percent Recent SC ranks fourth-best among the field and leads all golfers priced $10,000 or higher.
Sergio Garcia ($10,500) rounds out the top-tier candidates: His 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score is tied with McIlroy’s and slightly trails Fowler’s and Thomas’ marks. Garcia has made every cut at PGA National since 2008 and has three top-15 finishes in the past four years here. He also has the fourth-best LT GIR (72.4 percent) and 10th-best Recent GIR (72.2 percent). Looking at our PGA Correlation Matrix, LT Missed Cut Score has the strongest correlation (0.16) with fantasy points scored on this course; Garcia ranks in the 96th percentile in Missed Cut Score over the past 75 weeks. For the discount, Sergio may be the stud to own given his recent form and how his metrics line up for this course. He is tied for a slate-high 11 Pro Trends.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
Charles Howell III ($7,300) has a LT Adj Rd Score that ranks just outside the top-20, and his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth-best. Despite those strong marks, he’s priced as the 41st most-expensive golfer. He’s missed the cut in just 12 percent of his tournaments over the past 75 weeks — the fourth-best mark in the field, ranking him in the 93rd percentile.
Bernd Wiesberger ($7,600) boasts the fourth-best LT GIR and ranks inside the top-five in both LT and Recent Adj Bird Avg. He has the ninth-best LT average adjusted strokes on Par 4s. Wiesberger ranks in the 95th percentile in LT Missed Cut Score, missing the cut in just eight percent of his tournaments. European players may have an edge given this course can be quite windy; the PGA Flex guys discussed this extensively on this week’s podcast. Wiesberger’s eight Pro Trends are tied for the fourth-most this week.
Chesson Hadley‘s ($7,700) 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score leaves a bit to be desired, but his 68.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth-best, and he hasn’t missed a cut to begin the 2018 season.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Tommy Fleetwood‘s ($9,400) 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth-best, while his LT GIR of 75.9 percent leads the field. Turning to his recent performance, his Recent Adj Rd Avg of 68.1 is the third-best mark in the field, his Recent GIR (74.5 percent) ranks third, and his Recent SC (68.6 percent) comes in tied with McIlroy for ninth.
Jason Dufner ($8,600) currently has modest projected ownership of 13-16 percent, and he is tied for the eighth-best LT Adj Rd Score at 69.2. Dufner’s Recent Adj Bird Avg of 21.0 is tied for second-best and his -5.0 average adjusted Par 4 strokes ranks second-best in the field. Last year at PGA National he garnered just 12.2 percent ownership.
If you’re looking to take a stars-and-scrubs approach and need a low-owned, low-priced guy to fill out your roster, Stewart Cink ($6,700) comes in very cheap and is tied for 17th in the field with his 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score.
Good luck this week, and be sure to check out this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex!
Photo via Bill Dill-USA TODAY Sports
