A tightly tree-lined and heavily bunkered course, Colonial Country Club, in Fort Worth, Texas, hosts this week’s DEAN & DELUCA Invitational. Every shot in the golfer’s bag will be challenged this week, and it’s unlikely anyone will overpower this course with raw power alone. Getting a fast start on the front nine is key; golfers will want to get at least one birdie on the two opening holes before reaching a three-hole stretch known as the “Horrible Horseshoe,” where bogeys and other ugly numbers lie in wait.
This week, we will look at Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Scrambling, and Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg).
The Defending Champion
An absolute course horse if there ever were one, Jordan Spieth has never finished worse than 14th in four trips to this event. His 67.4 Course Adj Rd Score leads the field among golfers who have made more than one start at Colonial. Spieth’s 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score also leads the field, his 15.9 LT Adj Bird Avg is second, and his 61.0 LT SC percentage is 14th overall.
Concerning is Spieth’s recent form: He has missed three of his last four cuts, including his two most recent events. His 70.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is 2.4 strokes worse than his LT average, and his Recent Adj Bird Avg has been reduced to a frightening 7.0. Spieth also left his long-time putter behind last week for a new model that promptly helped him lose 2.199 strokes to the field on the greens during the second round last week (per pgatour.com). That said, he does have the highest odds to win the tournament and the highest DraftKings salary in the field.
Per our Trends tool, golfers on the PGA Tour with similar salaries and bad recent form have surprisingly provided a +6.54 Plus/Minus with a 66.7 percent Consistency Rating in 15 events, averaging 81.93 points per tournament (PPT):
Intriguingly, these golfers have had an average ownership of less than 10 percent. It’s possible that Spieth could be available at something of an ownership discount.
Listen to what Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Colin Davy, and Bryan Mears have to say about Spieth and others on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex.
The Debutant
Prior to Spieth’s win last year, Colonial was not a place where younger golfers typically prevailed. In fact, the 14 winners before Spieth were all at least 30 years old, and five of them were 42 or older. Course experience has also played a factor in previous tournaments: Since 2002 every winner but one has previously carded a top-15 finish in this event prior to winning. None of this sounds good for Jon Rahm, but in 2001, his compatriot, Sergio Garcia, won in his debut here.
Rahm is also a complete freak: His 68.4 LT Adj Rd Score ranks third, his 60.0 SC percentage is 27th, and his 16.5 LT Adj Bird Avg leads the field this week. Since his win at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, Rahm has ripped off three additional top-10 finishes while averaging 83.25 DraftKings PPT. Importantly, his 81.9 PPT over the past calendar year ranks first overall.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Paul Casey: One of the top golfers in the CSURAM88 Model, Casey is second and fourth with a 63.3 percent LT SC mark and 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score. Casey hasn’t been great at Colonial recently, with a missed cut and a 43rd-place finish in his last two trips, but he arrives here in top form: He is tied for fifth in the field with his 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score.
Jason Dufner: Dufner’s 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score ranks ninth, and his 14.5 LT Adj Bird Avg is seventh overall. Duf Daddy has two runner-up finishes at Colonial (2012 and 2014) and finished sixth last year. Moreover, he has made nine straight cuts and has seven top-25 finishes during that stretch.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin has only played here twice, but he hasn’t finished worse than 22nd in either appearance. Hadwin’s 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score is 10th, his 60.6 LT SC percentage is 19th, and his 14.4 LT Adj Bird Avg ranks ninth in the field.
Pat Perez: With zero missed cuts and seven top-25 finishes in 2017, Perez comes into this event in fabulous form. Plus, he has four top-10 finishes here at Colonial, including a fifth-place finish last year. Perez’s 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is 16th, and his 14.2 LT Adj Bird Avg is tenth overall.
Charley Hoffman: Hoffman has had some mixed results at Colonial, but he has three top-20 finishes — including a top-10 performance — and zero missed cuts in his last six appearances. He is tied for 23rd with his 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. The aforementioned Spieth is the model’s top golfer, but Chris Kirk is this week’s Levitanimal. Kirk has finished no worse than 15th at Colonial in the past three years, winning the event in 2015. Kirk hasn’t missed a cut at this event in his last six starts, and his 68.6 Course Adj Rd Score ranks fourth among golfers with more than one start at this track. Kirk had struggled this season, but he finished 12th in his last time out at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Humpnostication
Hump’s prognostication machine has been pretty brutal, so take this with a grain of salt (or whatever else would make you approach its potential validity with caution). With that disclaimer out of the way, I’m shipping all my Coors Light monies this week on Bud Cauley, who hasn’t played at Colonial in two years but finished 14th and 21st back in 2013-14. Cauley is straight fire right now: He has ripped off three straight top-10 finishes while averaging 86.3 PPT. Cauley’s 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks second, and his 18.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg leads the field.
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Good luck this week!
