With the Trinity Forest Golf Club scheduled to host the tournament in 2018, this marks the last year that the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at the Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas at Las Colinas. Some of the sport’s greatest competitors, including Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, have won here at TPC Four Seasons.
This week, we will look at Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg), Driving Distance (DD), and Adjusted Par 4 Strokes (Adj P4).
Dustin GOATson
One of the top golfers in CSURAM88’s Player Model, Dustin Johnson leads the field with his 16.8 LT Adj Bird Avg, -1.8 Adj P4, and 67.7 LT Adj Rd Score. His monstrous 313.8-yard LT DD ranks second overall.
Johnson has lit up Las Colinas previously with four top-10 finishes in his last six trips here and no finish worse than 20th in that stretch. His 68.5 Course Adj Rd Score is third in the field, which Johnson currently leads with 18.2 percent odds to win.
Per our Trends tool, golfers with comparable odds to win have produced a healthy +9.03 Plus/Minus with a 64.0 percent Consistency Rating and chalky 34.1 percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools. DJ’s likely to have high ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock.
For more on Johnson, listen to what CSURAM88, Colin Davy, and Bryan Mears have to say on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex.
Green Jacket
Likely to be chalky, Sergio Garcia is the only golfer in the slate with two wins at TPC Four Seasons, and he enters the week as the defending champion. His 68.2 Course Adj Rd Score leads the field.
Garcia’s 15.1 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for third, and his 68.3 LT Adj Rd Score ranks fourth. He has a top-20 Adj P4 score. Sergio has two wins since February of this year, and his 86.3 points per tournament (PPT) over the last calendar year ranks first overall.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Brooks Koepka: Koepka lost in a playoff to Garcia at this event last year. Importantly, Brooks has found his form: His 67.1 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks second overall this week, and his 18.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is third. Koepka is one of only three golfers in the field with double-digit Pro Trends, one of which is “Averaging At Least 80 PPG Past Month.”
Jason Day: Despite some recent struggles, Day is second in the field with a 67.9 LT Adj Rd Score. Additionally, Day’s 303.2-yard LT DD is 15th, and his 15.0 LT Adj Bird Avg is fifth. Day also loves himself some Byron Nelson, finishing outside the top 10 only once in his last four trips here. He won the event in 2010.
Jason Dufner: Duf Daddy quietly ranks ninth in this field with his 14.5 LT Adj Bird Avg and seventh with his 68.9 LT Adj Rd Score. Not so quiet is his course history: Dufner has a win and three top-10 finishes here in eight starts.
Bud Cauley: Cauley has two top-10 performances in his last two events, and he finished fourth at this event last year. His 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks sixth, and his 18.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg is second overall.
Fabrizio Zanotti: Lesser-known European Tour golfers are traditionally overlooked when playing in PGA Tour Events. Even though Zanotti won an event in February and finished 12th at the WGC: Mexico Championship, he will likely be owned at less than five percent in guaranteed prize pools. He leads the field with his 22.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg.
The Levitanimal
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. The aforementioned DJ is the model’s top golfer, but Matt Kuchar is this week’s Levitanimal. While his Saturday meltdown and 39.0-point DraftKings MDF performance at THE PLAYERS are off-putting, the numbers don’t lie.
Kuchar has three top-10 finishes here since 2011 and hasn’t missed a cut in nine starts at this course. Kuchar’s 68.9 Course Adj Rd Score is third among golfers who have made more than two starts here.
Humpnostication
Eventually I’m going to be right about J.J. Spaun winning an event, right? He has two top-20 finishes (including a sixth-place finish) in his last four starts. During that time Spaun has averaged a healthy 79.87 PPT. Moreover, his 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 19th, and his 16.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks sixth.
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Good luck this week!
