The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
There are two PGA tour events this week, but we’ll be focusing on DraftKings’ featured match play contests that they are offering this season.
The Format
The 2018 World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play tournament will feature the top 64 available players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). The players are seeded by their OWGR and placed into four pools (A, B, C, D) of 16 players and then matched into a group with three other golfers. Each golfer is guaranteed to play three rounds (Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday). After Friday, the winners of those groups will advance to the field of 16. This means only 25 percent of the field will advance after three rounds and earn points for your DFS team. Considering usually around 50 percent of the field makes the cut, this should make for an especially interesting tilting event for DFS players.
The key for match play will be in targeting certain groups and quadrants (view the bracket here). You’ll want to target golfers who you think will have the best shot at advancing in their group so you don’t miss out on more rounds of scoring that follow, or at least picking the “right” spots to pay up for certain golfers.The reason you want at least one player from each quadrant is that so you could potentially have the final four golfers correct.
For example, Zach Johson is in Group 16 with Matt Kuchar, Yuta Ikeda, and Ross Fisher. Kuchar is the most expensive player in this group, but ZJ is $1,500 cheaper and rates higher than Kuchar in the Colin Davy Player Model. They also have similar odds to win the tournament, so it may not make sense to pay up for Kuchar in this spot given the price discrepancy and given their range of outcomes may not be that different. So, with ZJ rostered, you obviously won’t roster anyone else from this group.
The Course
Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas is a short par 71, 7,108-yard course. It’s designed by Pete Dye, one of the most recognized course designers in the PGA and an expert at creating distractions for golfers. The back nine at Austin CC is known as the “lowlands nine.” The front nine will play higher and are considered the “highlands” which has a resemblance to the Texas Hill Country. Dye studied courses in Scotland and also adapted their pot-style bunkers into Austin CC. Long hitters should find success here with all three par 5s exceeding 564 yards and a driveable 317-yard par 4. Ball-striking will also be crucial given the short nature of the course.
The Players
Group 3
Keegan Bradley is the only golfer in this grouping who has the distance to keep up with John Rahm. Rahm and Bradley each have a Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) average of more than 300 yards, while Chez Reavie and Kirdech Aphibarnrat own a LT DD under 292.5 yards. Rahm’s 68.4 Long-Term Adjusted Round score (LT Adj Rd Score) trumps this group quite handily and his recent form has been outstanding with 71.5 percent greens in regulation (GIR), 20.5 recent birdies per tournament, and -5.5 average adjusted strokes on par 4s. I like Rahm in this group, who was runner-up to Dustin Johnson at this course last year.
Group 5
Much like Rahm, Patrick Cantlay has a driving advantage over his grouping. He’s sporting a LT DD of 300.2 yards and Recent DD of 308 yards. Hideki Matsuyama had been battling an injury to begin the PGA season, but he returned last week to only hit 54.2 percent GIR and sprayed the ball off the tee with 53.6 percent driving accuracy. Cantlay’s 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score barely trails Matsuyama’s 68.2, but it’s possible Hideki is still shaking off some rust while Cantlay’s recent form has been great, with 69.9 percent GIR and 67.1 percent Recent Scrambling Score (Recent SC Score). If Hideki is closer to full strength, this could be an intriguing matchup as him and Cantlay are near each other in LT Rec Adj Rd Score and LT average adjusted strokes on par 5s (both -5.9): Over the past 75 weeks, Matsuyama is averaging 16.4 birdies per tournament compared to 15.4 for Cantlay. That being said, Cantlay has similar odds to Matsuyama and comes in $1,600 cheaper and his 68.5 LT Adj Rd Score is the eighth-best in the whole field, but he’s priced as the 30th most-expensive golfer.
Group 12
The match play format is going to be tricky, especially when trying to pick at least one player from each pool. Pool C is filled with golfers who are rank 37-52 in the OWGR. Brendan Steele looked the most appealing from pool C when factoring his fit for the course and who he is matched up against within his pool. Steele’s 69.1 LT Adj Rd Score leads this grouping, and he also has a leg up when it comes to distance with a 302.4-yard LT DD and 314.5 Recent DD. That said, Tyrell Hatton and Charley Hoffman aren’t slouches off the tee as they each are hovering around 300 yards in LT and Recent DD. This whole grouping has similar LT Adj Rd Scores and long-term stats, which should make for a competitive overall match:
Group 10
It’s difficult to pass on Paul Casey, especially when he is typically underpriced relative to the field. His 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for the second-best with Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, but Casey costs substantially less than both golfers. It’s difficult to imagine Casey not coming out of this grouping with his excellent long-term and recent form. Casey and this grouping are all sporting LT GIR between 67-71 percent, but Casey has averaged nearly two more birdies per tournament and has been excellent at avoiding bogeys with just 8.3 bogeys per tournament over the past 75 weeks — the 10th-best mark in the field. He also has excellent recent form: In his past four tournaments, Casey is sporting a Recent DD of 305.8 yards, his 17.3 birdies per tournament tops everyone in this group by at least three, and Casey has been crushing par 5s with -6 average adjusted strokes.
Be sure to use our suite of tools to research for yourselves and good luck this week!
Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
