The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA is leaving the short Harbour Town course and heading to a much longer TPC San Antonio. The Texas Open features a 156-player field that will host defending champ Kevin Chappell. Now, let’s get into the good stuff!
The Course
The Valero Texas Open will take place at TPC San Antonio. This course was designed by Greg Norman, who also used Sergio Garcia as a consultant. It’s a par-72 that’s quite lengthy, coming in at 7,435 yards. Unlike Harbour Town, bombers will be rewarded here while accuracy is minimized with the trimmed-down rough, but we’ll get more into the course details shortly.
As always, I backtested various metrics within our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC San Antonio. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at this course. Historically, the tournament has yielded averages of 41.88 DraftKings points and a -5.80 Plus/Minus with a 42.3% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only the metrics that tested positively above the baseline:
- Recent Driving Distance: +4.82
- Long-Term Eagles: +4.50
- Recent GIR: +3.51
- Recent Eagles: +3.40
- Recent Bogeys: +3.16
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.01
- Course Count: +1.99
- Course Putts Per Round: +1.74
- Recent Scrambling: +1.56
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.45
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +1.27
- Recent Par 4 Scoring: +1.17
- Long-Term Scrambling: +0.37
- Long-Term Birdies: +0.33
- Long-Term Tournament Count: +0.22
- Long-Term Par 5 Scoring: +0.16
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.12
As you can see, the metrics back up the notion of favoring bombers this week, while accuracy isn’t as crucial. Along with distance off the tee, it will be critical to target excellent ball-strikers as Recent GIR backtested well here. Even though Long-Term GIR didn’t backtest well, that’ll be a metric I am still weighing heavily. It also appears bogey avoidance and Long-Term/Recent Eagles will be something to key in on as well.
The Studs
Sergio Garcia ($12,000) helped Norman design this course, although he hasn’t played it since 2010; this will be his third start at this event. Garcia is fresh off his disaster at The Masters and checks in with the highest odds to win (6.7%). He’s an obvious fit for the course with his 302.1 Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), and he ranks fourth in the field in LT Eagles per tournament. His recent form isn’t great with a 70.9 Recent Adj Rd Score (Recent Adj Rd Score), but his 68.8 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score), 9.0% missed cut rate, and 71.4% LT GIR are all field-bests. All that said, if I am paying up in the top tier, I think I’d rather take a look at some of the golfers listed below.
Matt Kuchar ($11,400) will be teeing it up for the 14th time at the Valero Texas Open. He doesn’t have the distance off the tee like the other golfers, but that doesn’t stop him from competing here, as he’s made the cut in his past seven starts at TPC San Antonio. Kuchar excels at bogey avoidance, avoiding bogey or worse on 63.1% of holes in the past 75 weeks. His recent form looks just as good, as he has avoided bogey or worse on 68.3% of holes in his past five tournaments. Kuchar can still take advantage of par-5s with his -4.1 average adjusted strokes on those holes over the past 75 weeks.
It’s safe to say Charley Hoffman ($10,900) likes TPC San Antonio quite a bit. He has never missed a cut at this tournament and boasts 10 top-15 finishes, along with first (2016), second, and third-place finishes. Over the past four tournaments at San Antonio within our database, he’s sporting a 75% Consistency Rating:
Hoffman will likely come highly-owned, as he’s averaged 20.1% ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) over the past four years, but he’s one of the safest players you could roster this week. He offers an excellent floor with upside for more.
Ryan Moore ($10,200) is another golfer who enters this tournament in excellent recent form. He boasts a Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.7 while hitting 64.9% of GIR and avoiding bogey or worse on 64.6% of holes in his past four rounds. Moore has played this course twice and finished 18th in 2017 and eighth in 2012. He isn’t as long off the tee as the other golfers (285.7-yard LT DD), but he should at least be in the fairway; he’s hit a solid 68.7% of fairways in the past 75 weeks.
Luke List ($10,000) can hammer the ball, as evidenced by his 311.9-yard LT DD, and he’s in absolutely fantastic form right now. Over his past five tournaments, he is sporting a field-best 68.0 Recent Adj Rd Score, hitting 71.5% of GIR, and avoiding bogey or worse on 64.4% of the holes. Further, he is averaging 0.8 eagles per tournament and -7.8 average adjusted strokes on par-5s over his past five events.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have low salaries make great value plays.
Jamie Lovemark ($7,700) is sporting a LT Adj Rd Score of 69.5 that ranks 10th-best in the field, but he is priced outside of the top-22 golfers. Lovemark has plenty of distance with his 304.1-yard LT DD, and he’s a solid scrambler, avoiding bogey or worse on 60% of his holes in the past 75 weeks and 72.6% in his past three tournaments. Lovemark boasts a 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score and 2.0% Vegas odds to win. Historically, golfers with comparable odds and metrics to Lovemark’s have been great values (per our Trends tool):
J.B. Holmes ($7,800) has the distance to do well here with his 306.6-yard LT DD, and he’s been hitting more GIR of late (67.1% over his past three tournaments) while avoiding bogey or worse on 68.7% of his holes played within that same time frame. Holmes is rather familiar with this course, as he has made the cut in four of his past five appearances here, including three top-15 finishes.
I’ve rostered Stewart Cink ($7,100) quite a few times this PGA season when in need of salary relief as he is typically always priced in the high $6,000 to low $7,000 range. Cink has made the cut in six of his eight PGA Tour events this season, and he is sporting a respectable 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score. There is nothing exciting about rostering a 44-year-old golfer, but he has historically been a somewhat safe investment:
If you’re seeking a potential low-owned value play, Keith Mitchell ($7,400) is projected for just 5-8% ownership. Mitchell has a field-best LT DD of 317.3 yards, and he can hit GIR, as evidenced by his 66.4% LT GIR and excellent 70.4% Recent GIR. Mitchell’s 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score also ranks sixth in the field. LT and Recent Eagles per tournament were two of the top-four metrics that backtested well here, and Mitchell is tied atop the field in both categories. The way Mitchell’s 2018 PGA season is going, you’d have to think he is a good bet to make the cut:
Abraham Ancer ($6,900) is well-rounded with an exceptional 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score, excellent 71.3% Recent GIR, and 70.7% Recent Scrambling Score. Those aren’t fluky numbers, either; they’re right in line with his long-term marks. It’s also not very often you get a golfer who costs $6,900 and has odds as high as Ancer’s (1.2%), but historically they’ve been solid values:
The Bump and Run
I’m going to double down on Chesson Hadley ($8,500) for a second straight week. Although, it’s unfortunate his price increased $1,200 from last week. He missed the cut here in 2016 as he couldn’t putt to save his life (31.0 putts per round), but when his putter was on fire in 2015 (26.8 putts per round), he had a fourth-place finish. Hadley has the distance (303.3-yard LT DD) and ball-striking (69.8% LT GIR) to contend here.
Kevin Chappell ($9,300) has excellent history at TPC San Antonio, as he won it last year and has two other top-five finishes. That said, his recent form is atrocious, as he’s hit just 59.7% of GIR. His 70.0 Recent Adj Rd Score shows that he hasn’t been able to scramble (55.9% recent mark) out of trouble, either. He’s coming off back-to-back missed cuts at Heritage and The Masters, but he’s sporting the fifth-highest odds to win, which could happen if he can progress back to his long-term form. Still, his volatility is best suited for GPPs.
Zach Johnson ($8,000) and Brendan Steele ($8,900) are typically safe bets to make the cut, as their 17.0% and 18.0% missed cut rates rank fifth- and sixth-best in the field. Steele is coming off a rough showing at The Masters, but he made the cut in every round before that, and he’s sporting a solid LT DD of 302.2 yards while hitting 66.8% of GIR over the past 75 weeks.
Adam Scott ($9,600) has a Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.7 over his past four tournaments while hitting 68.1% of GIR during that same time frame. The main thing that could hold Scott back is his putting, as his LT/Recent PPR marks are both over 30.0.
Don’t forget to visit our suite of Tools to research all of the golfers. Good luck this week!
Pictured above: Charley Hoffman
Photo credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
